1- #ConnectingTheDots Checking on the US Consumer
Today we got Initial Jobless Claims, a lead datapoint for the evolution of Unemployment
They went DOWN
2- Near-term credit card data suggests spending HELD UP through September - no sign of any deceleration at all
3- This is corroborated by recent trends in airfares...
4- ...and hotel bookings
h/t @LONGCONVEXITY
5- Further out, the outlook remain positive. Example Detail from Richmond Fed Manufacturing survey
Wage plans for 6 months from now remain elevated, despite a MUCH deteriorated business outlook
Why? Businesses are desperate for staff
6- Summary: Many recent datapoints continue to suggest the US consumer is in good shape
The intense adjustments necessary to rebalance the US economy will be most acutely felt in corporate profits, and abroad
End.
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