Ok. Here is how the war ends, I think.
A 🧵
1 (on previous tweet) is an encirclement enabled by fixing and Ru troops and severing their supply lines around Savatone. This is happening now. See here:
2 (on original tweet) is a pocket of Ru troops that is being formed but will be used to suck in Ru troops and assets to hold it. This is also happening. See here:
And 3 is Ukraine using its strategic reserve to sever the Russian Armed Forces in Ukraine into two pieces that cannot mutually reinforce.
Then we need to turn to think about how Russian domestic politics absorbs this catastrophic defeat.
Right. Loads of questions about Crimea and the Kerch Bridge. I think the Ukrainians won’t drop the bridge as it’s an escape route.
And I think that once the Ukrainians have completed the 1-2-3 as set out in this thread, you’re going to see a general collapse of the RuAF, a change of power in Moscow, and a deal that involves Crimea being handed over. Or, the Ukrainians will just take it.
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