Thread by @KarenCutter4

In advance of our June excess mortality work coming out tomorrow, here is a thread on the latest COVID-19 data in Australia.
#COVID19Aus

Here's a table showing the various bits of data we know about COVID-19 deaths.
Note with the change to weekly reporting, I have needed to estimate surveillance deaths for the last day of Sept (last 3 days for Qld).

This thread might be a good read for some of my new followers, explaining how Covid deaths are recorded in Australia, concentrating on the difference between daily surveillance reports and the ABS statistics.

Here is the same data table from one month ago.

And here are the differences.

Surveillance numbers dont change, other than adding a new month.
ABS figures increase as deaths are registered, impacting the most recent months more than older months.
Compared with last month, a lot more coroner referred deaths were registered this month (49 cf 4 last month).

Here is the chart of surveillance deaths per month.
September is much lower than July and August.

This graph compares the ABS and daily surveillance reports to the end of August. Before Jan-22, the two sources match closely but there are considerable differences in 2022.

The main reason for the big August difference (and to a lesser extent July), is because there are a lot of deaths that occurred in those months that wont have been registered yet, hence wont appear in the ABS data.

Here’s the same data presented on a cumulative basis since the start of the pandemic. I’ve also shown the ABS data including an allowance for late registrations (grey dashed line, using the same pattern of registrations as seen in the last six months).

Daily surveillance deaths to the end of August were just under 14,000.
The ABS data shows 11,400 deaths, and I estimate this will increase to 13,200 by the time all the late registrations come in.

Its unclear why surveillance deaths are higher than estimated ABS deaths:
- "historical" reporting in surveillance data confuses timing
- there could be lots of coroner-referred covid deaths awaiting decision as to cause (so arent in ABS data)
- my estimates could be wrong🙃.

Deaths *from* vs *with* covid. Overall, the ABS data shows that 9,428 (82%) of deaths are *from* covid and 2,013 (18%) *with* covid. The proportion *with* covid increased significantly with the Omicron wave and was 25% in May-July, increasing to 30% in August.

For those who died *from* Covid, overall 79% had a pre-existing condition. This proportion has increased for deaths registered in the last four months and is currently sitting at 85%.

Chronic cardiac conditions and dementia remain the most common pre-existing conditions.

For those dying *with* Covid, what were the underlying causes of death? Cancer, circulatory system diseases (which includes heart disease) and dementia are the top 3. It is likely that Covid accelerated the death of these people in many/most cases.

The end. Any questions?