Thread by @althecat

Sometimes its good to be wrong.

The area where Potential #Cyclone13L is heading is full of mountains. This now looks like the landfall of a cyclone with a very short lifespan.

But one thing I will say for #Invest91L it has been spectacularly visually, & V unpredictable.

This is where #Cyclone13L made landfall, as it was only a few short hours old, it probably did not cause too much damage. But someone should probably check.

This is roughly the direction in was heading in. The NHC thought it was heading west - north west, but the Infra Red imagery now suggests otherwise.

But I may have jumped the gun/shark here. A new rapid burst in convection is starting back up where the cyclone used to be.

Potential #Cyclone13L is nothing if not tricky.

[Note/Disclaimer: I am not a WX professional]

Or does it. New infrared imagery may contradict this presumption.

In the meantime #Cyclone13L has its own page (which it deserves) with much better satellite data to look at it with >> nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at3.s…

One of the problems with this cyclone is that it is very hard to see through all the convection that surrounds it.

Also it keeps sparking back into life. Which I guess is one of the features of cyclone genesis.

Lets wait and see. This potential cyclone has surprised on many occasions. And if it is headed NW as per NHC guidance.... then Aruba had better watch out.

Here's another view of Potential #Cyclone13L its a complicated. While there is clearly steering heading in a NW direction, there's also a circulation over land which pulled what appeared to be a cyclone SW - only to see a new convective burst pop up where it was before.

New advisory on Potential #Cyclone13L formation chances now at "Nearly 100%"