Alastair Thompson Profile picture
Climate, Conflict, Politics, Africa. Editor (NZ) Reporting from France. #nzpol #DesertRain

Oct 7, 2022, 7 tweets

#ExtremeWeather Potential Cyclone #PC13L Update Thread.

@NHC_Atlantic is dispatching a second reconnaissance mission to investigate the disturbance off the coast of Venezeula as the storm approaches open water after spending several hours partially over land.

@NHC_Atlantic A comprehensive discussion has now been released by @NHC_Atlantic […] providing an insight into what the experts expecting from this tropical tropical wave, which has been given a rare "Near 100%" probability of becoming #HurricaneJulia.

The long range Hurricane Hunter mission will determine amid all the noisy convection whether the storm has a clear circulation - which it needs to progress from being a wave to become a disturbance or a Tropical Storm - at which point it will get a name.

The passage clipped ^^ above is important, as there is a big range of possible intensity scenarios over the coming 72 hours over very warm water with generally positive conditions for intensification.

And if the storm intensifies significantly, this could change its impacts.

BEWARE "Rainfall, flash flooding, and mudslides."

This is the most important warning for those in #HurricaneJulia's path in Nicaragua, Honduras and Mexico. This is a huge storm, one embedded in an immense field of convective storms and water vapour.

Finally we have a more detailed and updated intensity forecast, with an initial estimate of a mid Cat 1 landfall. However this is the most significant area of uncertainty about the future development of this extraordinary storm.

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