Thread by @TFL1728

Let's Talk Kerch Strait Bridge:
Operating thesis:
1) Rational Actors are still avoiding WWIII
2) Irrational Actors are escalating
3) Lots of factions wanted this to cover their failing plans/systems

So, what happened?
1/

The Truck bomb doesn't tell the whole story. This was likely a combined operation. Even if not, the implications are just as scary.
2/

Given the circumstances and how seemingly desperate many actors are at this point to start WWIII, why would we just chalk this up to good ol' Ukrainian plucky fighting spirit, given that we know how heavily NATO is involved there, esp. US/UK and Polish support?
/3

But, that is clearly what's on the table so far today - a rogue Ukrainian actor. Even the Kremlin is supporting this. Maybe it's true.
rt.com/russia/564297-…
If so it speaks to the possibility of something worse than US/UK malfeasance.
4/

So, I don't believe the 'Lone Truck-man" explanation any more than I believed the "Evil US Blew up Nordstream to stop Germany pivoting" nonsense.
c.f. my discussion with @NakedHedgie
spreaker.com/episode/514395…
/5

And my article on this which laid out everyone's motivations.
tomluongo.me/2022/09/29/the…
/6

Someone is highly motivated to upgrade this from a local conflict to an open NATO/US v. Russia conflict.

There are many reasons and MMO arguments for each faction.

We are staring at serious trouble in UK and European Fin. Markets. UK pension crisis, Credit Suisse problems.
/7

Here's something to chew on... why is the Swiss Nat. Bank getting 90+% of the liquidity dollar swaps from the Fed vs. just 10% for the ECB?
/8
newyorkfed.org/markets/desk-o…

Why is SOFR liquidity rising exponentially vs. Falling Eurodollar Futures Liquidity?

B/c US banks have transitioned out of LIBOR indexing. B/c they need/want a collateralized rate environment?

Whose losing here? Who's winning? Who needs this war to cover their loss?
/9

But even if this was Ukrainian SSB as reported. What chaos have these morons unleashed that they could give the Ukrainians' vitriol such an outlet w/o regards to the consequences?
/10

Do radical Ukrainians really believe that this will get them the upgrade in support they need to "win" back Crimea, something that is simply not going to happen?
/11

Moreover, did crazy British/Polish (and yes US) forces goad them into doing something this dumb in the hope of tying everyone's hands into a war that clearly rational actors do not want and have worked hard to avoid?
/12

Why is John Bolton all of a sudden the talk of the town? Who brings him out at this moment in time to push for all-out war and Putin's assassination right on schedule?
/13
zerohedge.com/geopolitical/w…

Has everyone's NEED to cover their domestic problems at home -- US, EU, UK etc. -- with Putin's War trumped their sanity?
Were they ever sane in the first place?
Short answer, no.
/14

Schoolyard bullies like Bolton, Truss and Nuland believe every provocation vs. Russia removes options from Putin's game board.
Leave him w/ only military options to then claim the moral high ground when he strikes back, hiding behind Ukraine's justifiable anger.

/15

Blowback is very real. So, with Neocons like Bolton, German Greens, Poles, Brits believing Russia is weak, will push until he has no other options.

But, again, who greenlit these psychopaths in the first place? Who put them in power in the US Nat. Sec. Hierarchy?
/16

But, Putin has also played the game right, uniting Russians behind this 'existential threat' by allowing the Boltons to stop hiding behind 'plausible deniability' and demonstrate the West's sheer hatred of Russians.
/17

This gave Putin the political cover to issue the mobilization, conduct the referenda in erstwhile E. Ukraine, and invite the over-extension of NATO's involvement beyond 'Support' and into 'open war'
/18

The weak governments in both the US and UK have invited this expansion of insanity.

Putin, so far, hasn't given them the casus belli they need to create a complementary coming together of the West's populations.

There is still no appetite for war in the West.
/18

This is still a waiting game. Whose political support will break first? The West's or Putin's?

Every day Russia doesn't respond to the stupidity is another day where the crazies will up the ante.

If blowing up NS didn't work, blow up Kerch.
If that doesn't work...?
/19

With each escalation and the incessant talk that 'nuclear war' is on the table, the 'grooming' of the West to accept the unthinkable grows.
We have "Biden" casually talking about it now.

/20

So, as always, what isn't said is as important as what was said. With Russia confirming the initial narrative (so far) and we're two weeks out from the NS1&2 bombings w/ no major escalation from Russia, the argument that grown-ups are hoping to control the crazies is in play
/21

The Pentagon has been strangely silent on this.
TASS as the 1st link for a search on "pentagon crimea bridge" ??
tass.com/world/1519871
Is someone finally coming to their senses?
/22

Cui Bono I don't think applies here. This could be another one of those moments where it's easy to rush to blame the obvious actors -- CIA/MI6/"The Empire of Chaos"/etc.

But real chaos is even scarier. It leads to accidental war. It leads to misinterpretations of leverage.
/23

This could have been another operation up on the usual suspects' whiteboard or it could have been what it looks like on the surface, either way it will be used by everyone motivated for war for the wrong reasons.
/24

Ukraine in thinking it can beat the Russians.
Their Neocon backers thinking Russia is weaker than it is.
Davos/Globalists for thinking they'll get the war that covers over the West's insolvency, save their skins and kill off a bunch of useless eaters.
/25

But what it will really do is weaken the only powerful moderate in Russian political circles... Putin.

Tie the hands of moderate Americans with enough power to change the course of our politics

Leading to the unthinkable becoming the most probable.
/26

Conclusion: We are one false flag operation away from WWIII while the peacemakers are trying to figure a way back from the brink.
/27