Building on things @biancoresearch has talked about.
Trump wants to be repaid for the post-WWII defense arrangements with the EU.

One of the possibilities is a cram down on the debt they have. Trump's opening off is to replace all the existing USTs owned by European banks (not clear if it's commercial + central or just central) with 0%, perpetual or 100-year bonds.

Now, I think this is a pretty hilarious offer especially in light of what I've been saying for 3 years about how the EU + UK complex has been gorging on USTs since Powell began raising rates.... to the tune of $1.1 trillion net/net since Sept 2021.
/1
They did this to manage credit spreads between US and UK/German bonds in order to keep their banks solvent.

Look up Lagarde's Transmission Protection Instrument (TPI), she instantiated in July 2021 in response to Powell's 75 bps raises back then.

The speculation then was to help the ECB manage the Italian/German spreads which were blowing out... @zerohedge covered it that way back then.

It wasn't.... the real control lever is US yields, against which all other debt is measured. Control the long-end of the US YC, you control global rates.
/2

Last year when the @PeterZeihan's of the world were calling for a 5 million bbl/day collapse of output I told you about the importance of the ESPO pipeline, which could double it's flows to 1 million bbls/day.
/1
archive.ph/nTTZk
Now look for Russia to double ESPO again after finishing the port upgrades at Kozmino

/2tass.com/economy/1555847

After this weekend's upside results for @AfD in Hesse and Bavaria I want to remind everyone that this time is different for them as compared to 2018.

They have transformed into the "solutions for Germany" Party, like I said they needed to become then. /1
tomluongo.me/2018/06/18/cro… Because they didn't rebrand themselves in 2018-19 they were easy pickings during COVID which saw their support drop to a low of 10%. They failed to cross the 16% chasm and fell back.

But, they were on the right side of the issues, German voters needed to catch up to them. /2

So, the YC is steepening this morning thanks to @SecYellen panicking on Friday, announcing Yield Curve Control.

Note the 5yr/7yr spread is about to turn positive!

This is killing the euro and the Eurobond markets.
/1 Euro below the 1-bar Quarterly Reversal level of 1.0633 and falling fast. /2

Niger’s former “independent government”was allowing France to take Uranium out of the country for $0.80/kg. Current price is $150.

The junta just raised the price to France to €200 or $185.

But France isn’t dependent on Nigerien Yellowcake, or so the bots kept scolding me last week

France’s budget is a complete nightmare, and unlike other members of the EU it can violate budget rules b/c some PIGS are more equal than others /2

goldgoatsnguns.slack.com/files/U02DSF8F…

Once you see how multi-vector the attacks on the auto industry are you can't unsee them.

EVs are a cancer eating away at private transportation. EV fires are the next stage of this.


/1zerohedge.com/political/will… As ICEs are being legislated out of the market, unsafe EVs will come with higher insurance costs all through their lifecycle.

Your True Cost of Ownership will rise as the depreciation curve steepens and initial cost rises thanks to complexity.

So, let's talk Yellen wanting Blackrock to be regulated as a SIFI. Moving Non-banks into this pile, which now gives them access they didn't have before.

BLK doesn't want to be a SIFI. But, now that they are in trouble, thanks to Powell they do? /1

https://twitter.com/RadarHits/status/1650447545305296899

From this 2019 Article on BLK in Europe. /2

Here's a follow up thread to my article on the #TrumpIndicment from last week. Covering the #DeSantis and #NYBoys angles

For those who thought the article was too dark, chew on these ideas.

Some light schizo-posting for a random Tuesday.

Ready? Go.
/1
tomluongo.me/2023/04/01/ind… If DeSantis is a @WEF stooge as the Ultra-Trumpers at CTH and others assert, why indict Trump?

@Georgesoros gave you the plan - pit Ron & Don against each other....profit from their war.

Indicting Trump doesn't serve that strategy at all. /2

Quick thread on the strategic importance of Credit Suisse and why the Fed's support of it is so important.

Famously, the SNB holds a big equity portfolio, at last count ~$139B. These are mostly US large caps. /1
whalewisdom.com/filer/swiss-na… Last Summer I took heat from the skeptical on Fintwit for my 'thesis' of a war between Davos and the Fed because the Fed sent billions in a lifeline to the SNB who helped out $CS. /2

First thing's first. This $SIVB thing is happening before 5pm on a Friday. So, this is meant to affect the closing of this week's market. /1

zerohedge.com/markets/silico… In 2008/09 all the FCID bank closures happened after the market closed on Fridays to limit the damage. Today we are treated to a vandalistic "Biden" regime making a big deal out of this DURING trading hours. /2

More meltdown in the Eurodollar markets this morning on US inflation data.
These markets and the long-end of the US yield curve are hideously mispriced
1/ @SecYellen is selling 2/3's and buying 10/20's
Why? To make the 2/10 spread worse than it should be but also to help @ECB protect US/German credit spreads.

Really?
Who do you think she really works for?
The Fed could provide the market 10's if Yellen would back off.
/2

Thread: This kind of extrapolation was EXACTLY what I was talking about in my article from the other day.

Hey, let's take current market conditions & linearly extrapolate into an unknowable future! You know, for kids!
@DiMartinoBooth @DavidBCollum
zerohedge.com/markets/yield-…
/1 From my article from earlier this week:
/2

Sy Hersh's article on Nordstream 2 brings up a ton of good questions as to what went on and who knew what when.

More importantly it paints a very direct picture of a Biden WH intent on deceiving Congress & usurping its authority. /1

zerohedge.com/geopolitical/n… back in November I did a podcast with Pascal Najadi who told the story of Frm. Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder visiting Scholz's office with an offer for gas to Gazprom, which was summarily rejected. /2

spreaker.com/episode/512105…

El-Erian makes a number of good normie points here in yesterday's BBG op-ed. Notice how it wasn't picked up by the dollar bears.

/1

archive.ph/s3b4X The big on is that there is nothing telling the Fed to slow down here in any meaningful way.

Most of the pullback in inflation and consumer spending is just baseline effects.
The banks have collateral, loan growth is fine and labor market strong. go another 50 Jay-Pow. /2

5000 Swiss troops to protect oligarchs at #Davos2023.
This is what you order up when you're scared of the people.

Here's a reminder that I saw Peak Davos in November 2021. It was over the COVID-9/11 Jab Protests... among other things.
tomluongo.me/2021/11/21/hav…
1/ Austrian protests, Nov. 2021.

It doesn't matter that they buried the lede for months. The anger is still there. /2

https://twitter.com/TFL1728/status/1462125904046534664?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

From Zerohedge's article on Poszar's War thesis. /1
zerohedge.com/markets/checkm… Now re-read my GOAT Predictions for 2023. Sound Familiar? /2

tomluongo.me/2023/01/07/goa…

#Ungovernable
In 2017 the Trump Tax Cuts passed.

I described Trump as having "the political acumen of another brilliant U.S. politician, the loathsome Franklin Delano Roosevelt."

That would spark internal migration, tearing down the Blue Wall
/1
tomluongo.me/2017/12/03/tru… The migration story is now all the rage.

Here's the latest thing from @zerohedge
/2
zerohedge.com/political/grea…

Short thread on the imminent collapse of the Russian economy. The latest episode is entitled, "But The Ruble is Crashing!"

/1 The Ruble was held artificially strong through gov't intervention for most of the summer.
With sanctions, the EU price cap & Putin's response the RUB is going to get pushed around.

Would rather cut production than sell to their enemies.
/2
detv.us/2022/12/27/put…

When people look at me weird because of my love for my guardian dogs (Maremmas) this story only partially justifies this.

This is human ingenuity at its finest. This dog's breeders are real heroes of civilization. /1

wthr.com/article/life/a… The woman in this video gets it, these are working dogs of the highest caliber. Literally they are the backbone of our food supply.

Until you meet one and watch them work you simply have no idea what they are capable of. /2

Let's Talk Kerch Strait Bridge:
Operating thesis:
1) Rational Actors are still avoiding WWIII
2) Irrational Actors are escalating
3) Lots of factions wanted this to cover their failing plans/systems

So, what happened?
1/ The Truck bomb doesn't tell the whole story. This was likely a combined operation. Even if not, the implications are just as scary.
2/

Just so we are clear. I believe and have believed the hyper-aggressive Neocons (or Straussians) are a faction easily manipulated into doing things that look like they are to their benefit but ultimately aren't.
1/ People this single-minded and radical can easily be directed like a missile at a particular target, especially if that target is their White Whale, i.e. Russia.
2/