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TA in Traditional Markets since 2003, Digital Assets since 2017, Precious Metals, Sound Money Maxi, Long Convexity.

Oct 10, 2022, 9 tweets

1/

#QNT upper channel (green) and $155 horizontal resistance was always going to be a fight, as described in previous threads. With the 5 wave Elliott Impulse wave formed off the $86 (2/B) low, we’d expect a pullback first before the upward trend resumes. Where to ...

2/

If a #QNT pullback is happening now, a 38%-50% downward retracement ($126-$136) would be common in a strong upward trend (target X) left Fib, which also coincides with strong $134 horizontal support and lower channel support (red).

3/

If #QNT breaks upper channel resistance now, then I think we headed for either Wave C/H&S/3 now (right Fib), but a small pullback before those targets are reached would make sense.

See this thread about how Wave C / H&S / 3 targets were constructed:

4/

Pullback to $139 occured. #QNT still toying with upper channel resistance, the importance and high probability target zones of this are explained above, but no true break has occurred yet.

Why is a closing channel break of this particular channel so bullish ?

Read on..

5/

Not just any channel break, but one formed by an Elliott wave 1/A & 2/B means high probability of it being a wave 3. Wave 3's are large & near straight line moves called "wonders to behold", and why so bullish, well only first two waves of it have formed so far (5 in total)

6/

C wave + Head & Shoulders targets reached, typical wave 3 hasn't been hit yet. I explained the significance of the upper channel (see thread above)

$205 was NB resistance discussed in prior threads, and channel right now hopefully creating support (yellow). Where to now ...

7/

1)Bullish: upper channel holds support + closing break above $205 = Wave 3 targets 🚀

2)Limbo: closing break below upper channel, support at $155 and $134

3)Bearish: closing break of lower channel = upward trend since June has reversed to the downside, $86 next support 🤮

8/

#QNT downward move off $233 reached 50% on the Fib, a move too large to be internal wave 3 structure, so maybe wave 3 is finished and the correction is part of wave 4. Upper channel providing strong support (circle) so Bullish scenario 1) above still the highest probability

9/

#QNT orange circle is NB support.

1) red horizontal:$133
2) H&S neckline:yellow
3) lower channel:white

Do or Die. Either we bounce now and take out the old local $210 high or break below the channel with $90 being the next likely level of support. Have a plan for both

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