#QNT upper channel (green) and $155 horizontal resistance was always going to be a fight, as described in previous threads. With the 5 wave Elliott Impulse wave formed off the $86 (2/B) low, we’d expect a pullback first before the upward trend resumes. Where to ...
2/
If a #QNT pullback is happening now, a 38%-50% downward retracement ($126-$136) would be common in a strong upward trend (target X) left Fib, which also coincides with strong $134 horizontal support and lower channel support (red).
3/
If #QNT breaks upper channel resistance now, then I think we headed for either Wave C/H&S/3 now (right Fib), but a small pullback before those targets are reached would make sense.
See this thread about how Wave C / H&S / 3 targets were constructed:
Pullback to $139 occured. #QNT still toying with upper channel resistance, the importance and high probability target zones of this are explained above, but no true break has occurred yet.
Why is a closing channel break of this particular channel so bullish ?
Read on..
5/
Not just any channel break, but one formed by an Elliott wave 1/A & 2/B means high probability of it being a wave 3. Wave 3's are large & near straight line moves called "wonders to behold", and why so bullish, well only first two waves of it have formed so far (5 in total)
6/
C wave + Head & Shoulders targets reached, typical wave 3 hasn't been hit yet. I explained the significance of the upper channel (see thread above)
$205 was NB resistance discussed in prior threads, and channel right now hopefully creating support (yellow). Where to now ...
2)Limbo: closing break below upper channel, support at $155 and $134
3)Bearish: closing break of lower channel = upward trend since June has reversed to the downside, $86 next support 🤮
8/
#QNT downward move off $233 reached 50% on the Fib, a move too large to be internal wave 3 structure, so maybe wave 3 is finished and the correction is part of wave 4. Upper channel providing strong support (circle) so Bullish scenario 1) above still the highest probability
1) red horizontal:$133 2) H&S neckline:yellow 3) lower channel:white
Do or Die. Either we bounce now and take out the old local $210 high or break below the channel with $90 being the next likely level of support. Have a plan for both
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1/ What #QNT price action has done in the past and what it could do in the future. A 6 part thread.
Here's a recap. Daily Log chart since price began. Major upside move (green), it's downside correction (red). Orange blocks are the % retracement each time
2/ So far #QNT had 6 major upside moves and subsequent corrections. Downside over the last 8 months is nothing special, >78% retracement using a fib like bottom right. 78% or more is what it's done 4 out of the total 6 major corrections.
What could the price do going forward ?
3/ Zooming into block 6, let's assume #QNT's 2021's rally from $23 in May to $438 in Sep was solely due to speculative buying as no known purchasing of licences occured back then, so no major institutional utility involved in that rally that I'm aware of.