Its now pretty clear what is going on. #HurricaneKarl #TSKarl is caught in an atmospheric river generated by #TD99E (in a similar way to how #HurricaneIan was) and headed towards florida - not Mexico.
The second overlay is a special "steering" product that allows you to see where a cyclone is headed - it focusses on the 500-850hpa wind range (1.5 to 5.5kms high winds ) which are particularly important for pushing cyclones.
And as you can see #HurricaneKarl is being steered towards northern Florida at present.
Which is the complete opposite of the current @NHC_Atlantic official forecast which says the hurricane will "meander" then head south towards Mexico and make landfall there.
And this may still happen. But IMO it is very unlikely based on the observations and data above.
By contrast this is what the @NHC thinks is going to happen over the next 96 hours.
But by that time #HurricaneKarl will have crossed the Gulf and reached Florida.
This has already happened once already and in the longer version of the GFS model simulation it happens for a third time.
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