Thread by @GeoConfirmed

GeoConfirmed Thread about the accusations that Russia or Ukraine will destroy the Nova Kakhovka dam.

Who is more likely to do this based on GeoConfirmed data? 👇🧐

(Picture Wikipedia.)

1/15

Russia: "In a video statement, on 18 OCT, Rus Gen Surovikin mentioned that he allegedly had data "on the the preparation of a missile attack on the dam of the Kakhovskaya hydroelectric power station."

2/15

Ukraine:

"We have information that Russians mined the Kakhovka hydroelectric power plant," president Zelensky said in an Oct. 20 address to the European Council.

kyivindependent.com/national/zelen…
3/15

So who is highly likely the party with the most interests of blowing up the dam and capable of doing it?

Let's check the GeoConfirmed history.

4/15

The Nova Kakhovka dam is shelled by Ukraine for months. It's Russia's biggest MSR (Main Supply Route) for the occupied Kherson region, even more since the Antonovsky bridge isn't usable.
Still the dam itself isn't destroyed yet...

Why?

5/15

Because the Ukrainians aren't targeting the dam itself but instead the lock and a turn in the road. And this with very precise shelling to disrupt Russians MSR.
Shelling those two locations will not endanger the stability of the dam itself.

Sat Img thx to @ArtisanalAPT.

6/15

On this picture of the lock area you can see the Russian bridges. This part is the part that the Ukrainians shell instead of an easy target like the dam itself.
You can also see, what looks like, an intact lock. (Green)

Sat Img thx to @ArtisanalAPT .

7/15

Understand this:
Ukraine chooses the protection of its people downstream above the total destruction of Russia's most important MSR. --> It chooses the risk of military lives against the risk of civilian lives.
And this for months now...

The GeoConfirmed facts are clear.

8/15

The Russians are in defensive mode.
The Russians already shelled a dam before to flood the lower regions with as only goal: disrupt the Ukrainian counterattack.

(Kryvyi Rih, 19 SEP)

9/15

The shelling of a dam, and the result of it, is a defensive action: You don't want enemies to cross the river and/or you want to slow down their movements.

That civilians are victims by doing so has an even more slowing effect: they require help.

(Kryvyi Rih, 19 SEP)

10/15

Conclusion:

Its unlikely that Ukraine want to shell the Nova Kakhovka dam because they are in the offensive and they need to be able to cross the Dnipro River. The destruction of that dam would slow them down and civilians would require a lot of help.

11/15

It's highly likely that Russians are planning to destroy the dam: To slow down Ukrainian military advancements, not only by destroying the crossing point but also by targeting civilians.

They destroyed a part of a dam before, in defensive perspective, causing a flood.

12/15

More about GeoConfirmed and our map:


13/15

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This helps
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14/15

Special thanks to @ArtisanalAPT for his high quality satellite imagery. He is doing great work!
(together with @NLwartracker, @COUPSURE and @DefMon3)

Last but not least: Thanks to our GeoConfirmed volunteers all over the world. Result 👇

(Map updated soon)

15/15

When Ukrainians arrive at the Nova Kakhovka dam... whats holding them back from shutting down the water supply like they did before the Russian invasion.

So this 👇 argument is invalid, the Russians loose control when UKR arrive at the dam anyway.

16/x