Thread by @JessMarinDavis

I'm really troubled by what we're seeing from municipal, provincial, and federal intelligence on the Convoy and #POECommission. A short thread on some of the issues as I see them:

There's a great deal of variation in the quality of reports, but many fail some basic tenets of intelligence reporting:
a) Neutral language
b) Well-articulated sources
c) Nuance and uncertainty
d) Free of logical fallacies
e) "in lane" reporting

There's clearly plenty of bias in some of these reports, and it's a massive concern that these were finalized with this present. This is both a failure of analysis and of effective supervision. Intelligence supervisors should be pushing back against this.

In many cases, the sources of information aren't cited or referenced in any way. Sweeping statements are common, but what they're based on is anyone's guess.

There's a lack of nuance in many of these assessments, and in many cases, events are presented as equally certain. There doesn't seem to be any common scale or language for reporting uncertainty. How is an intelligence consumer supposed to make sense of this?

Logical fallacies have been present in several that I've seen, including the epic appeal to authority of Rex Murphy. I'd laugh if this wasn't such a serious matter.

And finally, lots of assessments outside of a lane. I believe that OPP and OPS probably had the best reporting on on-the-ground activities. But were they in a position to assess foreign influence? Probably not. (Again: not clear what they're basing assessments on here).

In short: this is not inspiring confidence. There appears to be a lack of professionalism in the intelligence function in many of these organizations (and I mean that as a lack of training & standards). And the federal level isn't immune either.

This is something that needs serious addressing, and this function needs to be taken seriously in police forces (and federal agencies -- it's a bit better there, but by no means perfect).

I'm reviewing more of these documents and I want to clarify: there are some that are very good and very professional, with excellent expressions of uncertainty and judgments. But these are not the norm.

Oh dear.

publicorderemergencycommission.ca/files/exhibits…