Good morning! We're eating white pills for breakfast out here in Arizona. The gap continues to shrink, and Democrats on the ground are beginning to freak out.
The question remains: What is the total number of ballots we have yet to count? And there, we have reason for optimism!
AP, NBC, & NYT (yes, yes, I know) estimate that we have only counted between 66%-69% of all ballots.
That puts the expected total number of ballots over 2.6 million — meaning over 800,000 votes left to count, the bulk of that in Maricopa.
Senate matchup as of 8:35 AM AZ:
Breakdowns of the estimated margins @bgmasters needs to catch Kelly, given different base numbers of outstanding ballots left to count:
If 500,000 remain, 59%-41%
If 600,000 remain, 57.5%-42.5%
If 700,000 remain, 56.5%-43.5%
If 800,000 remain, 55.6%-44.4%
And we believe a significant chunk of the remaining ballots are "late earlies" (early mail ballots that were dropped off in-person yesterday).
That's a huge source of optimism, as Republicans are expected to lead in those...
After the dust settles, we should discuss the psychological warfare waged by fake news & dilatory counters/recorders who forced you to stare at a screen that said ~840k ballots was 50% of the vote for hours last night... when it may turn out to have been less than a third smh
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