MMWR Week 43 Update
We begin with the lag adjust. Our lag adjusts have been dead-on where they should be, around 0 to 3% low (both suitably conservative & consistent).
Lag is a model constraint which affects ALL ICD-10 codes equally, unless someone is tampering with the data.
The only ICD-10 code where we have to use a watered-down lag curve is Cancer.
As well, we observe below the CDC is adjusting cancer deaths AFTER the LAG PERIOD has CLEARED.
So, this is not an issue of the lag we use, rather records are being changed 13 to 24 weeks after filing.
Meanwhile, Abnormal Clinical & Lab Finding Mortality is still being used to conceal extra heart-related deaths, as proved last week. 900 deaths were added into this bucket for MMWR wk 43.
When heart related deaths are run per past (correct) practice, we get the 20-sigma signal.
Non-Natural Cause deaths - now that they are being maintained again - are showing an uptrend once again. I'm glad that the people who caused this retained their power... so promising for the future of our nation. 132 k dead young people.
Vietnam War is envious at the carnage.
Cancer deaths, when done per past practice and not the new 'week 13 - 24 special adjustment' method used since the system upgrade
...are still at a 9-sigma event, even using the watered-down lag curve. I dare not use the real (tested accurate) lag adjust here.
Thus we continue at a 6-sigma overall signal in terms of Excess Non-Covid Natural Cause deaths (the real way to do this)...
396,000 of these deaths to date, and rising at 6 k per week - far higher than the ~1400 Covid deaths per week right now.
Excess All Cause Mortality rose to 5.7%, up from 4.1% last week. Excess Non-Covid Natural Cause Mortality also rose from 13.0% to 13.9% excess.
This is not encouraging, no.
These are raw CDC outputs with a very disciplined lag adjust as we saw earlier - won't see this in media.
At this pace of Excess Non-Covid Natural Cause Mortality, along with Non-Natural Cause Mortality...
Deaths from our panic-solutions will overtake Covid deaths for the whole pandemic on 28 Jan 2024.
Well done experts! So sciencey and stuff.
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