Update🧵November 20th
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Yesterdays thread
Shellings reported by the UA general staff for the last 24 hours. Nothing out of the ordinary.
Weather
Dry and warm weather during the days in the south and warmish weather with rain for the next 5 days in then north. The warm dry weather in the south opens up a for a bit better operational conditions.
Svatove
AFU main focus seems to be north and south around
Novoselivs'ke and Ploshchanka. The progress is slow at best at this point. With reinforcements arriving for both sides, it's not unlikely we will be at a stand still for a longer period of time.
Siversk
RuAF stepped up the activity in this area, I believe this is to interfere with a protentional AFU attack on Kreminna from the south. Russian key position here is Verkhn'okam'yanka, which provides plant of cover and vantage points with open downhill terrain to the west.
Bakhmut
Increased intensity in this area today after a calmer period. The Russian attempts to assault head on in to Bakhmut is complete madness in my opinion. There was a video released yesterday with about 25-30 dead Russians at the Bakhmut approach.
Even if they manage to establish a foothold at the Bakhmut approach, imagine their supply situation, they are dug in to small holes in the ground, with no mechanized support.
Donetsk - Zaporizhzhia
There were no reports of RU attacks on this section which is unusual. I suspect RuAF are preparing for an attacking with the coming dry weather. I believe we might see some large scale attempt by Russia to advance in the areas marked by magenta arrows.
Quick about Belarus. I have been looking at sat images, and large camps are emerging. I do however not believe there will be any attacks from Belarus, at least not any time soon. I am not sure russia has the ability to lead a large scale attack in that area.
I think we are looking at training with free ammo and food. Possibly even using Belarusian equipment for it.
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