Thread by @james_chater

I’ve been following Taipei mayoral candidate Vivian Huang [黃珊珊] ahead of tomorrow’s local elections in Taiwan. Some thoughts on her campaign…

Huang is running as an independent candidate, but with the backing of current Taipei mayor––Ko Wen-je––as well as the party he founded, the TPP. Ko appeared in her campaign's music video and has spoken at a number of her rallies.

Huang trained as a lawyer and has served 6 terms as a Taipei city councilor. She's erudite and speaks about policy with ease. But a number of people have told me she lacks "charm" [魅力]. And compared to Chen & Chiang, she's not as immediately recognizable.

She consistently touts her experience; since 2019, she's been a deputy Taipei mayor. Huang says she's the only one that can "take the reins straight away" [無縫接軌] – and that Taipei cannot wait for an 'intern mayor' [實習的市長] to acclimatize to the job.

Her principal claim is that she wants to "overcome the blue-green divide" in Taiwan's politics [超越藍綠]. She's worn white at big debates & says a "white vote" for Huang is a 'ray of light' [一道光] amid dark political infighting (between blue and green parties 藍綠惡鬥).

But sceptics point out her relationship with Ko, the TPP, and especially historic associations with the blue-leaning People First Party and New Party, as evidence against her claim to represent the 'middle ground'.

Huang says she wants to "consign the blue-green divide’ to history". But the crux is: despite justifiably claiming to be the most experienced candidate, she’s unlikely to win.

What does that tell us? Perhaps 1) people don’t believe she genuinely represents the middle-ground; or 2) telling Taiwanese voters they’re: "not blue, not green, but free", just isn’t that convincing...(yet?).

Huang is expected to perform better among the young and those with higher academic degrees. But she's not expected to pull enough people who would normally vote for the KMT or DPP. That would be necessary if she were to win.

Her spokesperson admitted to me there's not a "classic" Vivian Huang voter, adding that was her strength.

But it might also show turning a catchy intellectual proposition–like 'overcoming blue-green'–into a genuine political alternative is still not that easy in TW.

Would be interested to hear other people's thoughts on Huang – especially what her campaign tells us about prospects for independent candidates/third parties in 2024? // END