I’ve been following Taipei mayoral candidate Vivian Huang [黃珊珊] ahead of tomorrow’s local elections in Taiwan. Some thoughts on her campaign…
Huang is running as an independent candidate, but with the backing of current Taipei mayor––Ko Wen-je––as well as the party he founded, the TPP. Ko appeared in her campaign's music video and has spoken at a number of her rallies.
Huang trained as a lawyer and has served 6 terms as a Taipei city councilor. She's erudite and speaks about policy with ease. But a number of people have told me she lacks "charm" [魅力]. And compared to Chen & Chiang, she's not as immediately recognizable.
She consistently touts her experience; since 2019, she's been a deputy Taipei mayor. Huang says she's the only one that can "take the reins straight away" [無縫接軌] – and that Taipei cannot wait for an 'intern mayor' [實習的市長] to acclimatize to the job.
Her principal claim is that she wants to "overcome the blue-green divide" in Taiwan's politics [超越藍綠]. She's worn white at big debates & says a "white vote" for Huang is a 'ray of light' [一道光] amid dark political infighting (between blue and green parties 藍綠惡鬥).
But sceptics point out her relationship with Ko, the TPP, and especially historic associations with the blue-leaning People First Party and New Party, as evidence against her claim to represent the 'middle ground'.
Huang says she wants to "consign the blue-green divide’ to history". But the crux is: despite justifiably claiming to be the most experienced candidate, she’s unlikely to win.
What does that tell us? Perhaps 1) people don’t believe she genuinely represents the middle-ground; or 2) telling Taiwanese voters they’re: "not blue, not green, but free", just isn’t that convincing...(yet?).
Huang is expected to perform better among the young and those with higher academic degrees. But she's not expected to pull enough people who would normally vote for the KMT or DPP. That would be necessary if she were to win.
Her spokesperson admitted to me there's not a "classic" Vivian Huang voter, adding that was her strength.
But it might also show turning a catchy intellectual proposition–like 'overcoming blue-green'–into a genuine political alternative is still not that easy in TW.
Would be interested to hear other people's thoughts on Huang – especially what her campaign tells us about prospects for independent candidates/third parties in 2024? // END
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Beijing says stabilizing US-China ties is "imperative", F-16s destined for Taiwan are delayed, and the US's top spy estimates a US$1T hit to the global economy if Taiwan is invaded.
10 of Taiwan's top stories this week...
1. China says stabilizing US-China ties "imperative"
China's foreign minister says:
– the US-China relationship has encountered "cold ice"
– US must correct its handling of Taiwan, and stop the hollowing out of the one-China principle reuters.com/world/asia-pac….
2. US prepares US$500M of arms for Taiwan
– Package will use fast-track authority also used to expedite arms to Ukraine
– Lawmakers quoted by BBG say this will avert a lengthy contracting process that has resulted in a US$19B backlog in arms due for TW bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Taiwan’s economy has entered a technical recession 8 months before a presidential election. Preliminary data shows it contracted **3.02%**(!) in Q1.
The last technical recession was in late 2015, when Tsai came to power.
A few thoughts on why this could impact the 2024 vote...
Taiwan's economy is performing badly mainly because of exports.
Exports account for around 70% of TW's GDP. And right now, demand – especially from TW's largest trading partner China – is low.
These 2 charts show the correlation between TW's monthly exports and quarterly GDP.
Why does that matter?
People forget how important the domestic economy was in the DPP reclaiming power in 2016. TW had just experienced a technical recession, Chinese demand was low, and wages were depressed.
These are from stories about the 2016 election in the NYT/Guardian.
10 of Taiwan's top stories this week (+ 1 Christmas bonus)...
1. Taiwan to investigate TikTok
– Chinese-owned TikTok is suspected of operating an illegal subsidiary in TW
– TW says CN uses TikTok for "cognitive operations and infiltration", spreading disinfo.
– TW plans to ban the app from all government devices
2. Foxconn to be fined for China investment
– TW said it would fine Foxconn for not informing govt. of investment in Chinese chipmaker Tsinghua Unigroup
– Foxconn Friday agreed to sell its US$772M stake in Tsinghua reuters.com/technology/fox…