🧵A dive in to the importance of Luhansk as a logistics hub for the Russians.
I will provide some though on why Luhansk city is a key location for the Russian logistics apparatus with the help of some very high resolution satellite images and a few maps.
Luhansk is located roughly at the mid point of the active frontline, just out of HIMARS range. Technically it's just in range, but it would require the AFU to shoot from an active combat zone, and that would be too risky.
This is Yuvileine, on the outskirts of Luhansk. About half of the town consists of an industrial area with a large coal mine. This area functions as a logistics hub for the Russian Armed Forces.
The red dots illustrate vehicles. The numbered orange areas are image locations.
Right along the main road we find this warehouse. There are about 20 vehicles in the surrounding area. I find it likely this warehouse is used for military purposes.
Just 230m to the north east we see a fuel station, on the image you can see vehicles refueling and 12 fuel bladders marked with white dots. They are doing this on a sunny clear day, they know they are out of range for HIMARS.
This is what the fuel bladders look like.
On the area of the coal mine, we can see various types of vehicles. I believe this area is used to repair vehicles and also as an HQ for some unit.
Just east of the coal mine, we spotted 3 military trucks outside this warehouse. This is possibly used for military purposes.
On this image we can see a moving convoy on the main road, some vehicles on an industrial lot possibly the process of redistributing supplies.
The most interesting thing about this is the 5 trucks hiding in the bushes north of the road.
This complex is situated on the north end of the industrial area. At first it lord pretty innocent, after comparing a few images, we could detect a decent amount of movement with a mix of military and civilian vehicles. I asses this complex is being used for military purposes.
In the middle of all this we have this industrial lot. It is unclear to me what this is being used for, but historically there has always been a lot of vehicles there.
Why is Luhansk important?
Before the Kharkiv offensive, RuAF could use the railroad connection between Valuyki and Luhansk with Starobil's'k being one of the logistic points along the way. GMLRS/M31 could barely reach the railway.
This changed after the Kharkiv offensive, now almost the entire railway connection between Valuyki and Luhansk is in GMLRS/M31 range, which mean the Russians only have two railroad connections and Luhansk is the only major settlement along the front line which is not in range.
And if we take a quick look in the south, we can see how the RU logistic alternatives are getting more and more squeezer. They are heavily reliant on that one safe route from Crimea, but even that is compromised by the limited functionality of the Kerch bridge.
The Russians know this and that is the reason they are trying to create more options by possibly building a new road from Crimea.
I also believe this is why RuAF keep attaching with huge losses in the Pavlivka area.
What is needed for the AFU to be able to disrupt the RU logistical network at this point?
Ukraine need longer range standoff weapons to be able to strike Russian logistics on Ukrainian territory and preferably on Russian territory.
The Russian army is extremely reliant on the railway to function properly and while the options for RU are reduced every time Ukraine gains territory, UA options to strike the RU logistics are also reduced since HIMARS are not allowed to attack targets inside Russia.
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I forgot this image indicating vehicle sightings in the Luhansk area.
h/t @neonhandrail and the @GeoConfirmed project for the data.
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