Observation: in the past three weeks the reported use of #shahed136 has declined significantly.
Early estimates (September) suggested Russia had planned to obtain 1,800 - 2,400 aerial munitions from Iran, either directly, or through relicensed assembly; many are Shahed-136.
Interceptions have slowed, implying use of the drone has declined. Increasing failure rate of interception is highly unlikely.
A few possibilities:
1. Attrition
2. E/W countermeasures
3. Stock replenishment cycle
4. Fewer media reports
5. Supply interruption
6. Training cycles
An expansive look at the Shahed-136 can be found in an earlier thread.
One additional consideration informing the declining use of the Shahed-136: weatherproofing. The precipitous decline conforms roughly with increasing cloud cover + humidity in Ukraine beginning late November.
h/t @RALee85
4/
Bear in mind that the Shahed-136 was designed by a nation where long, very hot summers & cool dry winters preside, and for use in a region characterized by ultra-hot arid climates with extremely low dew points and minimal cloud cover.
h/t @davidhelms570
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