Thread by @0x_berserk

1) APE Staking, a ray of light in the bear market?

BAYC is the largest and strongest community in the NFT industry
Staking of $APE was announced, which was obtained through BAYC, the main project of Yuga Labs.
Pre-deposited on Dec 5, and staking on Dec 12.

#APE #BAYC #YUGA

2) We'd like to analyze the on-chain data and off-chain events of $APE, which is maintaining its price relatively soundly in the current overall downtrend, and discuss the response direction of market participants accordingly.

3) $APE and BAYC, and Otherside

$Ape is an ERC-20 based token launched by Yuga labs, which currently operates the largest NFT called Bored Ape Yacht Club (BAYC), to establish governance and promote utility of related ecosystems.

4) The top 20 by market cap and has a significant volume with a total issuance of 1b ($4b) and a circulation of 360m ($1.4b). $APE was released in Mar 2022 and was airdropped to BAYC owners, MAYC owners, etc., and distributed to Yuga labs, Yuga labs founders, $APE DAO, etc.

5) Later, Yuga Labs announced that it would develop Otherside, an NFT-based game, in collaboration with Animoca brand (a tier 1 blockchain development company), and $APE as a keystone in this game.

6) Onchain data of $Ape

After TGE, Otherside (otherdeed) minting (April 30) was only possible with only $APE, it shows a significant price increase.

After that, it fell and moved sideways, and showed a gentle rise before and after the announcement of Ape Staking (July 23).

7) Recently, the price increase has been confirmed once more since the staking announcement.

8) Price flow of BAYC

Similarly, between at the time of $APE's airdrop and Otherdeed minting, it shows ATH, then declines, moves sideways, and finally a similar price flow (rising) to $APE at the end.

9) Expected future supply

Cointelegraph shows the unlocked amount unlocked in addition to the amount via airdrops. 7.5m tokens of foundation are being released every month, and from Mar 2023, the first year since TGE, about 15m tokens are planned to be released per month.

10) Yuga labs' efforts to create demand
=> Otherdeed minting, Bengi bananas (temp effect)

The minting was paid only with $APE, and it collected about 15m tokens. **However,** this amount is too small for a long-term view. Bengi bananas also have a similar situation.

11)
=> Proposal to build own network chain (failed)

Yuga labs proposed $APE chain due to ETH's gas fees and network delay, but rejected by community. The introduction of its own chain, which could potentially be a great use, has failed, and the demand for $APE still little.

12) Staking and interest compensation (poor response, failure to hype)

An important hype indicator of $APE staking can be $APE holding statistics of BAYC holders. This number is currently continuously decreasing. Even though staking is imminent, BAYC holders are selling $APE.

13) Check off-chain event

<Impact of Alameda FTX>

Alameda Research sold all APE coins around Aug before this incident broke out, and the APE Coin Foundation revealed that it had no assets in FTX.

14)
<Otherside>
This is actually the most important point except for the macro factors that will have a big impact on the price of $Ape
The sharp price rise at the time of minting shows that the price can rise as much as possible if there is a demand.

15) $APE also showed a great rise during the announcement of the Otherside tech demo.
However, the journey to completion of development, the success after development, and the completion of tokenomics filled with the demand for $APE following the success are too far and difficult

16) Possible scenarios
Price is the agreement between supply and demand

Judging from the data, the power of demand for staking is weak, the future demand is unclear, and a significant releasing of tokens is definitely expected.

17) Although the DeFi craze has blown by offering high interest rates for several years, market participants are not seduced by the high APY anymore.

18) The turning points of the scenario
Otherside (positive pivot)
As good news from the Otherside periodically bursts, Staking operates stably, and if the macro flow stays not bad, the price flow might be good. We should be aware that Yuga Labs' marketing skills are excellent.

19) Typical vicious cycle (negative pivot)
The high interest rate proposed by $APE is unsustainable unless APY or price drops sharply. But, this change in structure reduces the demand. Possible vicious cycle where prices fall, actual interest rates fall, and prices fall again.

20) Importantly note that $APE staking without NFT is absolutely not beneficial, with a much lower interest rate than NFT holders.
There are many obstacles to find the No.1 position in the NFT industry, such as news related to the SEC investigation and class action lawsuit.

21) Conclusion

1. Hype due to $APE staking service is unlikely to be greater, so prepare for the possibility of a short-term $APE decline.

22)

2. The currently proposed $APE stake will almost certainly demonstrate the drawbacks of the high interest rate caused by inflation in the long run (strong downward pressure on price)

23)

3. It is difficult to recommend $APE staking unless you are an nft holder such as BAYC. Nevertheless, if you claim to be a strong holder of $APE, wait for good news from the Otherside.