1/ This year’s Australia-US Ministerial Consultations (#AUSMIN) are taking place today with a focus on collective deterrence in the Indo-Pacific. I expect the alliance to accelerate down this path. But it must also attend to the challenges this involves 🧵
smh.com.au/politics/feder…
2/ For context, the Australia-US alliance has become the pace setter for regional efforts to balance China’s power, bolster America’s eroding strategic position, and deepen integration btw allies and partners to collectively defend the Indo-Pacific order. iiss.org/publications/s…
3/ Nowhere is this agenda more apparent than in the rapid expansion of US-Australia force posture initiatives, which recently attracted a lot of attention when news “broke” about Canberra’s decision to support US bomber operations from northern Australia.
4/ Last year’s #AUSMIN was the big news on this score, resolving to enhance air, land and maritime posture arrangements, and to establish a combined logistics, sustainment and maintenance enterprise to support high-end military operations in the region.
5/ Today’s #AUSMIN is likely to flesh out this agenda. I’m esp looking for rotational placing of warships/subs, long-range fires cooperation, and more MRO + logistics: fuel/munitions/materiel stocks, new airfield and port infrastructure, greater AUS ability to sustain US assets.
6/ Posturing for combined military ops is essential. Given China’s missile threat, US needs more dispersed and resilient locations to operate/pre-position forces. AUS' strategic geography and support for a strategy of collective defence are invaluable.
7/ But this is uncharted terrain for the alliance. Posture integration w/out formal mechanisms for combined planning (which we've has never had) brings risk. Both sides must align expectations re roles, responsibilities, thresholds for action in a crisis. ussc.edu.au/analysis/opera…
8/ Expectations also need to be aligned – and fulfilled – on defence industrial integration. Australia has long sought reform to US tech transfer/export control rules (ie ITAR) to enable seamless defence tech cooperation and boost AUS’ industrial base. breakingdefense.com/2022/06/the-nt…
9/ Last year’s #AUSMIN resolved to advance this agenda through NTIB, GWEO and AUKUS. But progress has been glacial. Export control reform won’t make the cut today. But I’m looking for progress on AUS production of munitions/components under US licence, incl LRASM, HIMARS, MLRS.
10/ Empowering Australia to be a more capable defence industrial partner muse be seen as a critical enabler of wider posture integration and collective defence aims. The US munitions base is ill-equipped for conflict with China. A source of supply in AUS is logistically valuable.
11/ There’ll be much more on the #AUSMIN agenda. But these two areas – combined posture and defence industrial integration – have potential to operationalise the alliance in unprecedented ways, provided risks are managed and both work in sync. It can be done but won’t all be easy
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