Thread by @tomiahonen

Who wants math?

(On Election Day? Nooo!)

Of COURSE on election day we do math, or as they say in Georgia Republican circles: on Erection Day

We can now tabulate the Trump Effect

(Really, T Dawg? TELL US)

You gonna like this.. lets get out our pocket calculators & slide rules

During 2022 Midterm Elections we had a few states where we can isolate the Trump Effect to the vote. Based on that math, we can calculate the universal Trump effect that actually matters now in ALL states, and ALL elections (if any candidates embrace Trump) ie going into 2024

We need an apples-to-apples comparison.

A Republican Senator candidate who was NOT the incumbent, AND campaigned with Trump

Running in State that ALSO had Governor election. And that Gov candidate did NOT campaign with Trump

We can CALCULATE the Delta, ie the Difference!

Only in 3 states: Ohio, Georgia & Connecticut both rules apply. These states were all pretty competitive, Ohio a red state DEMs thought they can win; Connecticut a blue state GOP believed they had a chance; & Georgia the most evenly split outcome (in Senate race)

Let's do math!

Gov vs Sen races:

Ohio: 2.5M R, 1.5M D vs 2.1M R, 1.9M D

Georgia: 2.1M R, 1.8M D vs 1.9M R, 1.9M D

Connecticut: 546K R, 709K D vs 534K R, 774K D

Total R got 5.2M votes for Gov but 4.6M for Sen in these 3 states

So Trump bleeds 11% of GOP vote = 6% of final election result

WOW? What did we just find?

In all 3 states, a blue state, a red state and the tightest race purple state of 2022 midterms, identical result

In all 3 states, CT, GA, OH, the GOP Senate candidate who aligned with Trump received LESS VOTES ON SAME BALLOT in same state, as the Gov

And it is a HUGE impact

SIX PERCENTAGE POINTS in the final election result

If any Republican aligns with Trump he (she) will UNDERPERFORM by 6 points vs non-Trumpist. That means Trump GIFTS US SIX POINTS

Yes, MAGA = Make Assholes Go Away

Trump damages the GOP
#LetTrumpBeTrump