Thread by @PToveri

1/12
Couple of words about Shoigu´s and Putin´s yesterday speeches. Putin promised armed forces all the needed resources. Considering weakening economy and declining energy income plus the costs of war, doesn´t look too good for the Russian people´s education, healthcare etc.

2/12
Shoigu announced that the force will increase by 30%. Army, Marines and Airborne Forces will get a new Army Corps and 10 divisions. 12 brigades will be grown to divisions. Air Force to get 3 new division, mainly bombers. Strategic nuclear forces to improved etc.

3/12
Let´s start with personnel. One should remember that Russia tried to build a million-man professional armed forces for 2 decades and failed miserably. That´s why they still have a general conscription system, and still, they couldn´t reach the million soldier’s target.

4/12
Over 10 new divisions and brigades were formed during the last 10 years, and they all were under 50% strength, even though the divisions were smaller that the Soviet divisions were. That´s why Russia started to use BTG´s in warfighting, which turned out to be a mistake.

5/12
Now they need to recruit hundreds of thousands new soldiers. It will be somewhat easier when Putin ruins the economy, so that there will be more available people to recruit, but still not easy. And they need to train tens of thousands of new officers, which will take years.

6/12
There is also need for new infrastructure. Overall, it will take years to create the new divisions, and they will probably still be in half strength, not real combat ready forces. A good reserve and mobilization system would help, but there have not been any talks about that

7/12
Then the equipment. Shoigu claimed 2021 that 70% of the equipment is new or modernized, at that has turned out to be lie. Only about half of the armour has been modernized adequately. Field communication systems are missing, there is no camouflage materiel available etc.

8/12
Just to replace the Army equipment lost in Ukraine will take 5-10 years, and now they will need even more equipment. They would also need new technology since some of the Russian equipment and technology has proved to be non-functional and inferior to Western equipment.

9/12
Russia would need to multiply and modernise its defence industry´s output. Not an easy task since they are almost totally depending on Western components and production tools and technologies. Plus, Russia is in defence technology years behind West in most fields.

10/12
Defence Industry is also competing for the same people that the armed forces want to recruit. Part of the best R&D people has already left Russia and the brain drain is getting faster. And the endless corruption and stealing will eat away lots of the investments.

11/12
But anyway, Putin has decided to move Russia to war footing, so the investments will happen same time as the conscript service and recruiting will be enlarged. This will mean bad times for the civilian society, where the decline will be faster, especially in rural areas.

12/12
It will take probably decades to raise the capability of the Russian armed forces, and they will be less than claimed. Still, the capabilities will increase somewhat close to Finland. Russia will remain a long-term security threat, to which the NATO membership helps.