Thread by @JamWaterhouse

“A potentially significant time” 😬

My first year in Ukraine is ending with the country continuing to overcome a threat to its very existence.

Here’s a thread 🧵 to help process 2022, as well as look at what 2023 could bring:

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In January, people in Kyiv didn’t broadly think Russia would invade.

Many saw the gathering of 150,000 🇷🇺 troops as a bluff.

It still seemed to matter who was providing military aid or training.

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Ukraine had been at war for eight years already.

More than 14,000 people had been killed from fighting between the army and Russian-backed separatists in the east.

It’s why the Donetsk futsal side played their home games 400 miles away in the capital.

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In fact, in early February, Ukraine made it to the semi-finals of the European Futsal Championships.

Their opponents? Russia.

🇺🇦 lost 2-3

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The quietest Six Nations…

During a rare bit of downtime on 12 February, you could detect a change in the atmosphere.

🇬🇧 travel advice urged people not to come to Ukraine. More tellingly, some embassies had started evacuating staff.

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Yet Kyivians we’re just carrying on.

As the warnings from the West grew more urgent, President Zelensky claimed there was no intelligence suggesting an invasion was coming.

“Panicking plays into Russia’s hands,” he said.

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My producer @4nnchor and I on 23 February.

(Thought I was taking a funny pic while our piece went out)

We’d covered the crisis for six solid weeks. Little did we know it was about to come to a head.

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5am, 24 February 2022

We, along with most of Ukraine are woken by the sounds of explosions.

Putin announces his "special military operation". A decision which will change Ukraine forever and cause the deaths of tens of 1000s of people - and counting.

(@O4acamera on 🎥)

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Ukrainians are forced to leave, take shelter, or fight.

Russian forces are advancing from the north, east and south.

Here I am with @OrsiSzoboszlay @DeeMcIlveen in our underground car park on 25 February.

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Kyiv changed overnight. It was now littered with checkpoints and armed volunteers. A city turned dark.

It was predicted Russian soldiers would arrive “within days”. I’ll admit I expected it. The fear on the streets was palpable.

And then there was that siren.

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Here the elderly queue for food donations in a Kyiv suburb. Many told us their relatives had all left. They were all angry or frightened, or both.

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Kherson falls to Russian forces on 4 March.

Which city would be next?

Invading troops were taking the most territory in the south, and quickly.

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By 17 March supermarkets started to run empty. Supplies could still get in from the south. People were escaping the other direction.

More than 12 million Ukrainians would be forced from their homes.

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18 March - even when Kyiv’s missile defences worked, the falling debris would be devastating.

A 40-mile long Russian armoured convoy had slowly been moving south - yet so far had been unable to penetrate the city.

(Here with @leedurant)

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Soon after 📸 this smoke from the Vasylkiv air base, the Russians retreated from the Kyiv region.

It was late March and they’d been defeated. The Kremlin announced it would focus on the eastern Donbas region.

President Zelensky & Kyiv never fell.

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(Warning: graphic image)

4 May: the invasion’s tide mark

A civilian’s body is exhumed next to what were Russian trenches on the outskirts of Makariv, Kyiv region.

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In the city we meet Ivan, who gives us a tour of his now destroyed uniform factory. He’d worked here for 32 years.

Russian soldiers had shot his neighbours.

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Small cities found themselves on the front line.

🇷🇺 tried to completely destroy Borodyanka. There Ivan lost his entire family in a strike on his home.

The police officer was helping people evacuate at the time and returned to work days later.

An extraordinary man.

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May 23: Russian soldier Vadim Shishimarim is jailed for life for shooting a civilian.

He’s the first person tried for a war crime. With Russia not part of the International Criminal Court, Kyiv sees these as the next best way of seeking justice.

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A grain of hope on 1 August.

The Razoni leaves the port of Odesa with 26,000 tonnes of Ukrainian grain.

Russia agrees to a corridor through the Black Sea in a deal brokered by the UN and Turkey.

Still the only major diplomatic breakthrough in this war.

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24 August: Ukraine’s 31st Independence Day.

Also six months since that February morning.

But having lost a fifth of territory and being so reliant on western support, how independent is it?

“We are free people, that is the truth of our future,” said President Zelensky.

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A surprise visit from @BorisJohnson the same day.

He’d become hugely popular in 🇺🇦 as 🇬🇧 had become one of its biggest military backers.

Worryingly for Kyiv, Mr Johnson wasn’t enjoying the same support back home. He soon left office.

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September 1st: Access granted

Inspectors from the UN’s nuclear watchdog are finally escorted to the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant - Europe’s biggest.

Russia’s occupied it since March & both sides continue to blame each other for shelling the site.

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30 September: A Russian missile strikes a civilian convoy in Zaporizhzhia, killing 32 people.

The worst scene of human loss I’d seen.

It’s a week where Vladimir Putin announces the annexation of four Ukrainian regions, despite not fully controlling any.

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22 October: Kherson happenings

Ukrainian forces continue to make small gains in the southern region.

The previous six weeks sees them liberate swaithes of territory in the north-eastern Kharkiv region.

(Security advisor Tommo behind the wheel)

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3 November: the approaching bleak winter.

Russia is a month into targeting Ukraine’s infrastructure. Households in Kremenchuk deal with blackouts every couple of hours.

Ukraine’s power is cut by a third, but those we meet are determined to stay the course.

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A pivotal moment on 14 November.

President Zelensky triumphantly stands in Kherson’s main square. The Russians are forced to retreat across the Dnipro River only a few miles away.

“Where next?” I ask him.

“Not Moscow” was his reply.

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21 December: President Zelensky leaves Ukraine for the first time in 10 months.

"This year has brought so much needless suffering to the Ukrainian people," said his host Joe Biden in Washington.

“I want you to know, America is with you every step of the way"

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So, what could 2023 bring?

An end to the war is of course possible, but I don’t think likely.

There are four probable paths. They all need a lot to happen:

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Path 1️⃣

IF the West means it when it says Ukraine won’t be forced to compromise, Kyiv could push for a victory.

Morale is high.

For example - a big counter-offensive south of Zaporizhzhia or the retaking of Crimea would pull the rug from under Russia’s invasion.

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Path 2️⃣

Vladimir Putin finds an exit by carving out a “victory” for his critics back in Russia.

But where from? He’s had two humiliating withdrawals and Bakhmut is holding.

However, it’s hard to see 🇷🇺 completely withdrawing unless there’s a regime change in Moscow.

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Path 3️⃣

A peace deal. The pressure to talk increases the longer the war goes on.

But where is compromise?

Kyiv doesn’t want to give up territory. The West doesn’t want to reward the invasion. Putin wants a “win”.

Ukrainian “neutrality” with EU & NATO now less likely.

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Path 4️⃣

The long grind.

Russia digs in. Too much has been invested over nine years. The conflict becomes a slower constant once more.

Whatever the course - 2022 has seen Ukraine turn an expected defeat into a possible victory.

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