Thread by @DefMon3

Ukraine Update🧵 December 29th

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Yesterdays thread:

Shelling locations reported by UA general staff today

Weather by @davidhelms570

Overview images

Keep in mind, the frontline is constantly moving and positions are changing hands.

Kupyansk
A shelling was reported in the area of Vil'shana today, this is the 5th time shellings are reported on the town over a period of 1 month.

Not very interesting in it's self, but with the recent reports of increased fighting around Lyman Pershyi, it could indicate some movement in an area which has more or less been at a standstill for months.

Svatove
The AFU repulsed attacks around Stel'makhivka and Andriivka. The AFU reported a shelling in the area of Kovalivka for the first time since October, I think it is possible the AFU have advanced slightly there.

Very late yesterday I reported about possible AFU progress NW of Svatove, read more in yesterdays thread.

The AFU repulsed attacks around Ploshchanka, Chervonopopivka and Bilohorivka. I believe the AFU continues their offensive south of Kreminna and Dibrova. The AFU reported they advanced 2.5k towards Kreminna this week.

Bakhmut
The AFU repulsed attacks around Soledar, Bakhmuts'ke, Pidhorodne, Bakhmut, Klishchiivka and Kurdyumivka. Pro ru channels report progress around Pidhorodne (they allegedly took two trenches). This tells us a little about what the Russians consider a victory these days.

I stand by the assessment I made in November. But I do have to change it a bit. The wording "not within the realm of possibilities" is perhaps an exaggeration.

I find it unlikely the Russians will succeed in their aim to encircle Bakhmut and capture it. However, more and more as we go, the offensive potential for both sided will be determined by the production rate of ammunition.

I think it's likely this will favor UA, but to be honest, I have not read up on it enough.

Donetsk
RuAF have in some places advanced several kilometers in this area the last 8 years. A lot of people make fun of the RU construction of static defenses, but it was pointed out to me yesterday, that static defenses are exactly why this frontline has not moved in years.

The Ukrainian general staff reported strikes on RU positions and equipment in Tokmak, Tytove, Chernihivka, Pology and Berdyansk. It is obvious the AFU are systematically targeting high value logistics and command positions of the RU forces.

I had a quick look at Engels today, I could not see any obvious sings of impacts or destruction. The snow does not help.

The Engels image is representative of what it looks like, I did look at a much larger area.

The orcs had a "Mechanical" failure in the Avdiivka area.

Interesting tactics here by the Russians. Open fields, daytime.

I forgot this part, reported by the UA general staff.

"The enemy is conducting offensive actions in the Bakhmut and Zaporizhzhya"

They did however not report any attacks in this area. So it's still unclear to me what is going on.

RU MoD is a bit unclear, but i assume they claim they destroyed a HIMARS.