Thread by @Napalm_1_

#uranium spotmarket is very small market bc most of uranium deliveries go through LT contracts! Today utilities signing LT contracts with deliveries starting in 2025 & beyond.
Spotmarket for utilities & enrichers is mainly for adjustments in U3O8 needs
(1/8)
$YCA $FTSE $U.UN

Well, now a major adjustment is coming (SWU -> conversion -> additional short term U3O8 needs). You can’t overfeed (use more U3O8 for production of 1 enriched uranium product) in 2023/2024 with contracted deliveries of #uranium mined in 2025
(2/8)
$YCA $FTSE $U.UN

=> You need additional uranium deliverable in 2023 (restart Converdyn conversion facility in 2023) to be able to overfeed centrifuges in 2024.
At least a part of the add 22Mlb lb #uranium needs for overfeeding will come from spotbuying.
(3/8)
$YCA #FTSE $U.UN $URNM $URA

Loss of underfeeding (20Mlb secondary supply/y) is also a problem,bc enrichers signed LT secondary supply contracts in the past thinking they would be able to underfeed for years to come. To honor those LT supply contracts enrichers become #uranium buyers too
(4/8)
$YCA $U.UN

But the annual #uranium supply through spot is only 20-25Mlb (Olympic Dam,Uranium1,…), while spot buying will most probably increase significantly: Utilities (at least a part of 22Mlb), Enrichers (at least a part of 20Mlb),… (see next tweet)
(5/8)
$YCA #FTSE $U.UN $URNM $URA

producers(Demand⬆️ when all utilities activate their contracted optional supply.But did producers cover 100% of this optional demand with existing prod?),Kazatomprom (to keep 6 to 8 month U3O8 reserve at level,while delivering #uranium to ANU),..(see next tweet)
(6/8)
$YCA $U.UN

…Sprott Physical Uranium Trust (SPUT) (5Mlb,10Mlb,50Mlb spot buying in 2023( $URA & $URNM buying $U.UN )),financial players.
=>Well,surprise surprise, #uranium spotprice went up yesterday without any spot buying from SPUT= others are frontrunning SPUT U.UN 👇
(7/8)
$YCA #FTSE

Adding all spot demand for #uranium (not coming back to spot) with those 20-25Mlb/y of supply through spotmarket, you see that that uranium spot demand 2023/2024 could easily exceed the uranium spot supply without SPUT buying any uranium in spotmarket.
(8/8)
$YCA $U.UN $URNM

Following previous 8 tweets: Once Converdyn starts producing UF6 again => constant dynamic of consuming Converdyn U3O8 stockpile & restocking of Converdyn U3O8 stockpile=Converdyn’s operational #uranium stockpile purpose:Keeping conversion going,not consuming without restocking!