Thread by @BobLoukas

Seeing lots of “echo bubble” talk lately around bitcoin.

Interestingly, i introduced that idea in my first 4Yr video back in 2018, as a possible event for the “2023 into early 2024 period”!
And talked about it often since.

It’s called a Left Translated cycle.

<Long thread>

A Left Translated cycle peaks early and spends more time in a bear phase.

On a 4 yr timeframe, something like only 12-18 months up to a peak, instead of the 32-38 months.

Why?

Because there is a longer dated Cycle (possibly a 16 yr cycle) that is due to turn down and make its run to its Cycle low.

On that timeframe, the final or the 4th x 4yr cycle would be the true bear cycle.

Where my view differs is that a fast move to test/exceed ATH’s much sooner than it did in prior cycles is likely a final impulse move.

Whereas echo bubble folks are likely looking for a resumption of the primary uptrend after a sizable correction.

A strong surge off the lows is ok. A echo bubble is bearish, in my book. I see it as a left translated too.

Yep, so that would mean the death of the halving narrative on price. (Like Crypto narratives don’t break :) )

But tbh, I’m not sold on it coming up in this cycle. Mostly because we still must respect recent cycle structure to repeat. And bitcoin hasn’t completed a true long cycle before to compare.

Lastly, one cannot simply position for it, one must learn to identify and respond only.

My main point, what I’ve been saying all along, is that if we were to see a left translated cycle emerge, this coming 4 yr cycle fits the profile really well.

The 4year cycle, with its ultra clean ‘time’ to the top and bottom, with recurring/matching indicators, has led to projections by the majority for the next cycle to mirror the priors, as if it were written in stone.

The power of Cycle’s analysis is that prior cycles provide a great roadmap, because cycles tend to repeat similarly.

But just as trends end, Cycle patterns eventually end too. They change because of the next longer Cycle (one we might not understand today)has changed direction.

I guess the point here is after three very similar four year cycles, the cats out of the bag!

Markets generally don’t allow such well accepted views to come to fruition, it’s too lopsided.

I was super confident in 2018 that we would see a 3 year move to a 2021 high.

This time around, I’m kind of expecting some nasty surprises. Because few are.

The goods news is that a left translated cycle generally has far more gusto in the early phase. Thus the echo bubble analogy.

So if we see some type of early outsized move relative to the past four year cycles, we will know the cycle differs already.

And if the cycle differs early, we should quickly forget our bias and not look to the prior cycles for positive confirmation.

And if it happens, Don’t think “super cycle”, think super trap.

Big secular bull trends develop on foundations.

So ideally, let’s wish for a mostly consolidating and base building 2023. It would set up another great cycle, and yes one accepted (by those already in bitcoin).

Then we can save the left translated cycle for 2026-30 :)