You’re investing actions today will have significant impact on you decades later.

There is a tendency to ignore or discount this impact, choosing to seek the perceived quick path to success.

However, the reality is few survive on that path.

Weekend rambling 🧵 I’m not suggesting you have to be boring and conservative. And grind for decades to some promised land way in the future.

Seeing lots of “echo bubble” talk lately around bitcoin.

Interestingly, i introduced that idea in my first 4Yr video back in 2018, as a possible event for the “2023 into early 2024 period”!
And talked about it often since.

It’s called a Left Translated cycle.

<Long thread> A Left Translated cycle peaks early and spends more time in a bear phase.

On a 4 yr timeframe, something like only 12-18 months up to a peak, instead of the 32-38 months.

Why?

A wrap on some charts as I look to close down for the year.

⬇️ S&P500 - was looking for a potential long (trade) early in week, but never got the setup. Good, because we could have a failed Cycle.

Seasonality is good, but the chart is not. No trades. Underweight long account.

Many traders don’t act on their instincts or intuition due to lack of trust or confidence in themself (their system).

1/n This all comes back to knowing yourself and developing a strategy that’s defined, personal, and developed over time.

$BTC needs to reclaim $19k relatively quickly (next day or two), to put a Cycle behind it. Otherwise the market would be signaling a deeper cut is required. That's my read. Adding some clarity on this.

From an ultimate low or end to bear market, this does change things. 👇

A thread on the #FTX saga.

Firstly, I'm essentially clueless on the FTX situation.

I know one simple rule. Generally where there is smoke.......

And this is especially true in crypto.

Not intended to be FUD, and for the sake of the space, hope this passes quickly. In investing, the #1 priority of an investor is to protect capital first.

This type of event has a way of becoming self-fulfilling.

Especially if $FTT token is the collateral backing everything or the primary "asset" on the books. Because let's face it, it's faith based.

gm and happy Monday. Here is where markets stand today.

(thread)

#bitcoin joins the group of failed Cycles. Now shows a Day 6 (of 60) high and failed Cycle. That's very early. #Stocks Showed a Day 4 (of 40) high and failed cycle, which seems to unlikely to be true.

"In theory", the coming (2023-26) #bitcoin 4-yr Cycle is the final 4 year cycle of a larger 16 yr Cycle.

That 4th of 4 Cycles 'should' form Left Translated, to provide for a declining (true bear) phase of the 16 yr cycle.

Thread - 1/n What does 'Left Translated" mean?

The (price) TOP of the Cycle occurs early in the 4yr period. The period is measured from trough to trough.

That allows for more time to decline over the period. And generally results in a lower low forming from one cycle trough to another.

I'd say the intuition of almost every participant in #crypto, specifically #bitcoin and #Ethereum (yes maybe others) is that over the coming years, it will be up substantially.

It's the highest conviction belief in a highly volatile space.

1/n Everything else in this space requires far more research, skill, dedication, experience, and risk!

And the above is worth pursuing for many, the right way.

But when the high conviction path offers such great optionality and probability of success, you cannot ignore it.

There is the gold drop and should soon form a Weekly (24-week) Cycle Low soon.

https://twitter.com/BobLoukas/status/1539241492644077570

"IF" correct, Silver will put in a classic bear trap.

Money is personal and emotional. And emotional investors often make the wrong choices at the worst of times. They generally don’t fare well.

1/n Your strategy, signal, or idea cannot be shaped on emotional ideas, such as dreams of hitting it big.

Furthermore, they’re only ever as good as your ability to execute.

And it’s most often the emotional brain that steers you from the right, rational decision.

Probably going to be a boring summer in Crypto. The heavy selling is done, now it's the doldrums period where only smart money accumulates.

Once all the weak hands have turned over, higher prices will be needed, and the new cycle can begin. Still targeting late in year. If you have conviction and a long term view, don't want to be "actively timing", be an accumulator from now, not a puker.

It's likely not going to be "the" bottom price...but not all that far, and sure wont matter too much long term. Get a significant dip, just buy.

Once you break the cycle of losing big and embrace losing small, your winners become meaningful. I think of it like 4 quadrants.

Win small (often)
Win huge (infrequently)
Loss small (often)
Lose big (NEVER)

In 20 yrs, so many of you young folks today will look back at these crypto days and still be in disbelief at the wealth that slipped your fingers.

Do yourself a favor, as your paper wealth grows on cartoon nft’s, airdrops, shitcoins, and dao tokens, keep extracting value.

1/n By value, I mean keep stacking Bitcoin, some ETH, but most certainly hard assets (like property, stock).

For every $1 equivalent of the speculative stuff, $3 in this value bucket.

Make a windfall, re-invest $1- bank $3.

With this #bitcoin decline, the trolls are out.

Here is a long thread on the 4-Yr Cycle, how we got here and where we might be heading. Firstly, back on Nov 29th 2018 I published the first video, it was public. It was a few weeks from the bottom at $3,800.

https://twitter.com/BobLoukas/status/1068127618636107776?s=20

Follow on thread to last thread. :)

The arrow is where I KNOW #bitcoin is, in terms of "TIME".

(see next) But price always one's challenge. Same chart, but notice where top of the Cycle is below, it's already occurred. Both are VALID Cycles

Given "current" peak at yr 3, cannot discount a top in 4-yr cycle, even absent mania top. Thus my discussions on hedging in recent videos.

All assets are influenced by cycles of various lengths. They are intertwined

The Cycle's Translation (whether in a bull/bear phase) directly influences lower time-frame cycle.

Knowing how the higher time-frames cycles are positioned is important.

(THREAD) Here is a drawing that shows just 3 Cycles intertwined. There are many more for each asset.

In this example, I use #Bitcoin's 16yr, 4yr, and 41.7w annual Cycles as example. Too detailed to fit, but there would be 5 x 60-day Cycles (Between every two Magenta arrows)

There is a vocal mainstream movement towards #crypto acceptance (#Bitcoin, $ETH, #NFT's) that is undeniable.

Politicians, celebrities, traditional finance personalities. etc.

This fits the phase of the 4year cycle very well. Yet this movement is many bubble iterations in the making.

It's a generational paradigm. It's stuff worthy of a grand bubble people will read about generations later.

And that lends itself well to my expectation the NEXT 4yr cycle will be the true blow-off.

OK, can't be all bullish tweets.

So if this is just a #bitcoin counter-trend rally off the April highs, then we're now approaching the bull trap target.

Far from my preferred expectation going forward, but not one I can fully discount, without a plan. People ask what to do.

Well for starters, get into habit of accessing/balancing allocations when favorable to you, not on emotion.

If you're overweight today, think will you likely sell a puke down to $35k or even lower, so use favorable price to get back to core allocation.

(Thread)

No confirmation of a new #bitcoin Cycle....yet. But looking like the path where support held in this Cycle has unfolded.

In Cycle theory, by definition, an intermediate downtrend can only end on a Cycle Low at the lower time-frame cycle.

https://twitter.com/BobLoukas/status/1407326136552542212

"IF" we're on Day 2 of a new Cycle, then we can start to look forward another 60-days.

The Cycle lengths have been consistent lately (Days 56, 61, 58, 57). Puts the next Cycle Low timing band around the Sept 20th range.

Intermediate downtrend continues #bitcoin

Just like April 24th Failed Cycle started this process, we have 2nd straight Cycle showing Failed Cycle, coming at midpoint. Day 30.

Normally expect bounce from mid-cycle low. But lower targets no longer just an outside possibility. Sorry I don't make the cycle rules, this is just the reality. Sometimes the cycle picture isn't clean and it's more of a guess. In this case, the Cycles are very clean.

Doesn't mean it Must play out in these paths, but based on experience, you would be crazy to ignore them.