This is why humanity is facing the near-term collapse of civilisation.
James Hansen
V. Ramanathan
Latest climate models
IPCC
They all tell us to expect 2°C in the 2040s.
Thread
1. James Hansen...
"global warming should reach 2°C by 2050"
columbia.edu/~jeh1/Document…
2. V Ramanathan...
"2°C boundary reached by 2045."
nature.com/articles/d4158…
3. Latest climate models...
"median year of 2043"
carbonbrief.org/analysis-when-…
4. IPCC...
Date range for crossing 2°C threshold starts at 2041
ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/
Now this is crucial to understand.
Land warms ~50% faster than the global average, and accelerating.
Global 2°C means the land average rocketing from 1.8°C to more than 3°C over the next 20 or so years.
Working link for James Hansen's paper.
arxiv.org/abs/2212.04474
Collapse over coming years isn't a hypothetical threat, it's a certainty.
Civilisation won't be able to withstand the next 5 or 10 or 15 years.
Collapse won't be easy to survive, which is why people and societies need to prepare.
James Hansen, this time absolutely definitive...
*** Global warming of at least 2°C is now baked into Earth's future. That level of warmth will occur by midcentury. ***
mailchi.mp/caa/november-t…
@ClareTotty hi Clare will you please consider retweeting this thread? It's extremely important that this messaging gets out. We are sitting ducks. Fighting fossil fuels and banks won't make the slightest difference to the rate and magnitude of our destruction. Climate change is caused by the GHGs already in the air. @RogerHallamCS21 @gailbradbrook @ExtinctionR @XRebellionUK
This is an extremely hard pivot to achieve and a test of XR leadership but make no mistake it needs to happen. It must happen. We must protect ourselves and the vulnerable from imminent, unavoidable, catastrophic climate destruction.
I'm not just another armchair punter, see my bio. Risk assessment has been almost absent from the process. I'm telling you what's actually happening, what's going to happen.
James Hansen: 10C based on GHGs already in the air.
arxiv.org/abs/2212.04474
Me, 18 months before Hansen...
Scientists are captured by big oil. Everything is captured. It can't be stopped. It can't even be slowed down.
Climate change is like a giant tsunami. All the energy is already in the system. No more energy is needed. The thermal inertia of oceans will release this energy.
This planet is accelerating to its 10°C equilibrium. "2C is baked in by midcentury" (Hansen). That's 3C+ on land, much more regionally, up from 1.8C now. Civilisation can't withstand the next 15 years, possibly not even the next 5 or 10.
The need to survive this event is overwhelming. Think of your families. Millions of lives in the UK depend on preparation/adaptation.
This paper tells us how it actually works. We're in the lag between cause and effect. The committed warming still to come can't be reduced or delayed.
"CO2 mitigation policies are aimed mainly at stabilization of the CO2 concentration at levels larger than 2005 values and thus cannot decrease the committed warming of 2.4°C (1.4–4.3°C) or delay the time for realizing it."
Page 105 of the IPCC's Technical Summary of the WG1 report.
This is an IPCC working group acknowledging an apocalyptic acceleration in warming over the next 20 years due to reduced particulate air pollution.
0.35/decade is in line with Hansen's 0.36/decade (100% acceleration).
"Global warming of 2°C will be reached by the late 2030s, i.e., within about 15 years."
— James Hansen, 10 Nov 2023
columbia.edu/~jeh1
@sheehanshas
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