James Hansen's Pipeline paper was peer-reviewed and Hansen has just confirmed that no other scientists have challenged his physics. That paper found that the GHGs already in today's atmosphere cause 4 watts per square metre of climate forcing, equivalent to a doubling of CO2 since preindustrial, which means that 10 degrees C of global warming is required by physics for the planet to restore energy equilibrium, ie as much energy radiated as absorbed. "Criticisms of the Acceleration paper in the media did not address the physics in our three assessments of climate sensitivity. Instead, criticisms were largely ad hoc opinions, even ad hominem attacks."

The three assessments of climate sensitivity were detailed in his Pipeline paper. No one has challenged Hansen's figure of 10C because it can't be challenged.

Our fossil fuel civilisation was doomed from the start. No matter how slowly we burned the fuels, the GHGs would have accumulated in the atmosphere and eventually destroyed our civilisation.

People believe so fiercely that there are alternatives to fossil fuels, but there simply aren't. Without the fuels and their incredible power-to-weight ratio and portability, the vast majority of people who have lived since the industrial revolution would never have been born.

We literally owe our lives and our civilisation (itself a staggering achievement) to the fuels which are ultimately destined to destroy everything.

What is coming is the inevitable aftermath of the most biologically successful period for our species. All species are compelled by their biology to be successful and multiply if the opportunity arises. We have a unique type of intelligence but we are still animals who are subject to the requirements of our biology.

Our fossil fuel masters are evil. They should have told the public the truth decades ago so that there was an opportunity to prepare and protect children and the vulnerable.

But we shouldn't confuse their inherent evil with a missed or ongoing chance to avoid catastrophe, because there was never such a chance in reality.

When the IPCC was set up in 1988, the Earth was already committed to extinction level warming for humans. The last deglaciation has shown us how incredibly sensitive this planet is to greenhouse gases.

At today's concentrations, the gases themselves produce 1.2C of direct warming. But it's what those gases do to the planet's amplifying feedbacks that's astounding. The total eventual equilibrium warming (required by physics) after fast and slow feedbacks is 10 degrees Celsius above preindustrial.

It's this extreme sensitivity to GHGs that explains the staggering magnitude of temperature whiplashing into and out of the ice ages in response to "only" ~120ppm CO2e.

Throughout everything we have to remember that toxic air pollution from burning fuels (including wood) has been masking at least 1C of warming. James Hansen wrote recently that these aerosols have been offsetting more than 2C of warming.

This aerosol cooling effect acts just like a sunshade, cooling the Earth, and whilst it has been peotecting our species as a whole while killing and harming many millions of us, it ultimately dooms us because that hidden warming rapidly materialises if fuel-burning reduces. William Catton, "Overshoot" (1980)

"It will be essential to realize that what is happening to us is a mere sequel to our past achievements."

Once a person understands just a few earth-shattering realities, it changes everything.

- the amount of GHGs in today's atmosphere means that the Earth is required by the laws of physics to warm by a further 9 degrees C in order to achieve energy equilibrium (as much energy leaving the planet as entering from the Sun)

- air pollution from burning fossil fuels is protecting humanity and all life from at least 1 degree C of global warming. James Hansen recently said that these aerosols have been hiding at least 2.4C of warming.

- most of the eventual equilibrium warming materialises very rapidly on a century timescale

- Loss of the ice sheets and coastal cities is inevitable. James Hansen predicts multi-metre sea level rise within several decades.

https://twitter.com/MarkCranfield_/status/1781102955782869136?t=4xAbjzTo6kp4kS2aXPfoCw&s=19

The general public has absolutely no idea of the extreme horror of the situation we're in. Fossil fuel burning is the only thing keeping humans alive. The smoke particles have been offsetting more than 2 degrees C of global warming.

https://twitter.com/guardianeco/status/1780897083744297077

James Hansen.

At least 2 watts = At least 2.4 degrees Celsius of aerosol cooling.

Scientists are at a loss to understand the magnitude of current ocean warming, but the reason has been known since at least 2006 and James Hansen's 2011 paper goes into great detail.

Climate models mix heat too quickly into the deeper ocean. Rather than fixing this, the warming effect of aerosols (air pollution) is dialled down to compensate.

So there's a double whammy. The warming caused by reduced aerosols due to air pollution abatement laws is underestimated. And the rate of ocean warming due to stratification, which by the way intensifies with warming, is also underestimated.

And there's something else.

According to James Hansen and V. Ramanathan, 60% to 90% of eventual equilibrium warming materialises on a century timescale, with a 75% central estimate based on the IPCC's 3C ECS sensitivity.

However, Hansen has recently found that, based on the latest paleoclimatr studies, a 5C ECS sensitivity is accurate to within a degree either side. This means that the amount of equilibrium warming that can be expected to materialise on a century timescale is more like 90%. James Hansen 2011 paper
pubs.giss.nasa.gov/abs/ha06510a.h…

When James Hansen works out that the eventual warming caused by fast feedbacks in response to today's GHGs is 4.8 degrees C;

that the total eventual warming including 'slow' feedbacks is 10C;

and that a drop in Earth's reflectivity has caused a 50% to 100% increase in the rate of global warming;

this information doesn't tell us to cut emissions, introduce a global carbon tax, start developing reflective geoengineering, stop new oil/gas licences, work more closely with China, degrow economies, cut population, transition to clean energy, more nuclear energy, remove CO2 from the atmosphere, etc etc.

It means none of these things.

What it does mean is that societies, communities and individuals need to prepare for imminent, unavoidable, catastrophic environmental devastation. I'm sick of hearing about how somehow GHG concentrations will magically go down. They won't go down, not ever, for any reason, in the explosive Anthropocene. You have to understand where we are. We're not on Earth anymore.

https://twitter.com/MarkCranfield_/status/1752369512404365442?t=U9EqX9IMxMT32dLJGW4yNw&s=19

I'm a senior risk assessor.

None of this matters.

Humanity is about to get hit by a giant asteroid.

So activists need to warn the public that we're about to get hit by an asteroid.

This warning is extremely important.

Every day that activists don't do this means more new lives brought into the coming apocalypse. This alone should compel action.

But it also means thousands of lives lost unnecessarily early through lack of preparedness.

All of us are now deep into a period of the most unforgiving consequences for failure.

Activists are in a unique position to warn the public.

@ClareTotty @gailbradbrook @ZoeatShine

https://twitter.com/RogerHallamCS21/status/1716857752293638403

https://twitter.com/MarkCranfield_/status/1616272077153275904?t=BjUC3TlLCktK5F-8INHlVw&s=19

It's 301 days (9 months, 27 days) since the world's best climate scientist James Hansen announced that the rate of global warming has rocketed 50%–100% from 2010 and that the greenhouse gases currently in the atmosphere heat this planet to 10°C above preindustrial.

This is by far the most important information ever announced by any scientist.

Nothing has changed. arxiv.org/abs/2212.04474

Here's an example draft script that activists can use in interviews or documents to explain the reality of our current situation....

The world's best scientist James Hansen has confirmed that 2C is baked in by 2050. This is supported by the latest computer modelling which shows a central estimate of 2043. The IPCC range for 2C starts at 2041.

The land surface currently warms 50% more than the global average and this gap will keep growing.

So a 2C global temperature by 2050 equates to an average on land of more than 3C. Regional temperatures will be much higher. The current land average is 1.8C.

This is a truly apocalyptic magnitude and rate of climate change happening over the next 0 to 15 years.

Societies won't be able to withstand this. Killer storms, heatwaves and floods will terrorise and decimate populations.

Infrastructure and social systems collapse, everything from transportation to hospitals to law and order.

Power cuts become the norm, getting progressively worse as each blastwave of climate destruction rips through societies.

Food and water supplies are immediately threatened by loss of electricity. Everything runs on electricity.

Four billion people are already exposed to extremely high water stress at least one month a year. Due to intensifying changes in the hydrological cycle, water supplies rapidly run out for tens and then hundreds of millions of people.

Food producers halt exports as agriculture collapses due to extreme weather and loss of water.

Lack of resources, particularly food and water and fossil fuels, cause conflict and war between countries and significantly increase the likelihood of nuclear war.

Societies rapidly collapse as the horrific realities of climate change bear down. Sterilising heatwaves, biblical flooding, superstorms, famine, loss of water, hundreds of millions or even a billion, 1 in 8 humans on earth, dead or dying or trying to escape death.

Systemic economic collapse and supply chain collapse shuts down everything, with the potential to rapidly kill countless millions or even billions due to loss of fossil fuels, electricity supplies, water and food.

Highly electrified, computerised, integrated modern cities are extremely fragile and vulnerable to climate shocks.

Sea level rise will be much worse than people are expecting even over the next 10 or 15 years, with significant parts of coastal areas including cities becoming permanently submerged, adding to the visceral horror and chaos.

All this seems impossible today, but this is what humanity is facing over the next 5, 10, 15 years simply due to the rate and magnitude of extreme climate disruption. @RogerHallamCS21 @ClareTotty @gailbradbrook @JustStop_Oil @XRebellionUK @InsulateLove

"Because [reality] is subjective, unreliable, imprecise, and, if it were to spread to the general populace, would only lead to panic."

This is dangerous thinking for scientists because they have no right to withhold information from the public for any reason. The only job of science and scientists is to convey reality to the public, so to shun reality is the definition of absurdity. How can a scientist describe reality as "subjective, unreliable, imprecise" when it's none of those things and his job is to determine the nature of reality? This is the mindset of scientists who aren't actually scientists at all, but are just number-crunching modellers who, as Schellnhuber wrote, suffer from 'probability obsession'.

"We tend to vastly overestimate the value of anything that comes out of complicated mathematical algorithms, and look down onto lowly intuitive thinking."

The writer here is confusing intuitive thinking with critical thinking, although intuition is an key aspect of critical thinking. But a past article by Knorr and others does note a weakness for critical thinking by scientists.

Consensus climate scientists still have basic things to learn about how Earth's climate works. This is a tragedy due to capture by vested interests, mainly fossil fuels. These are the forces keeping scientists in a bubble, sheltered from reality.

We're not doomed by an absence of climate policy or climate action. We're doomed by 1.1 trillion tonnes of atmospheric CO2 plus other GHGs, hundreds of zettajoules of excess ocean heat and thermal inertia, 1.4 watts/metre Earth energy imbalance, Polar Amplification and loss of sea ice, loss of ice sheet albedo, amplifying feedbacks, inexorable sea level rise, aerosol unmasking, etc.

Knorr is right, scientists are not friends of activists, or anyone else for that matter. We have had enough warnings. Kevin Anderson: "The expert community currently just reinforces Davos." We have to listen when people we trust tell us who they are.

https://twitter.com/RogerHallamCS21/status/1705902313141895424

https://twitter.com/MarkCranfield_/status/1385547646358728705?t=UqcWRpv_Nvzla-Af9x08QA&s=19

We are basically back in medieval times. Humans haven't progressed at all. No one has a clue what's actually happening. Everyone is stuck in a 1980s time loop, back when climate change was a crisis and we needed to take immediate action. Since then, emissions have more than doubled.

Is climate change accelerating?

Look at the graph. This isn't climate change, it's blowing up a planet.

This is the rate of energy absorption. Due to the thermal inertia of water, it takes a long time for the oceans to respond to the increase in energy but they inexorably warm faster and faster.

This warms the atmosphere, melts ice, raises sea levels, reduces the planet's reflectivity and accelerates amplifying feedbacks. A prize if you can spot the acceleration in this graph.

In 1985 scientist Dean Abrahamson testifies that "vigorous" work would have to start immediately to have any hope of limiting warming to 5°C.

Since then emissions have more than doubled.

4°C is beyond extinction level warming for humans.

3 years later, in 1988, the IPCC was set up to control the scientific messaging.
Full video

It doesn't matter what humanity does or doesn't do.

It doesn't matter if there's no new oil and gas or even if impossible net zero is achieved.

It doesn't matter if there's a Great Awakening of human consciousness and everyone pulls together with all their might.

Forget… twitter.com/i/web/status/1… @ClareTotty @RogerHallamCS21 @gailbradbrook @ExtinctionR @XRebellionUK @JustStop_Oil @InsulateLove @BespokePanic

0.8C is a *staggering* amount of global warming. This is an average of more than 1.2C on land, much more regionally. Modelling and observations tell us that this magnitude of climate change will occur over the next 20 years or so. An eyeblink. This is a thermonuclear holocaust.

https://twitter.com/MarkCranfield_/status/1643186060187271168?t=pO8Ez15OVldEz5Ja3TayWQ&s=19

No, there won't be any pockets of humans eeking out an existence eating soil at the poles or anywhere else. There just won't be. People just have no idea what's coming. The most terrifying thing imaginable multiplied by 10,000. It's the monster under the bed. It's the entire world disintegrating, even the ground under our feet falling away. This is a Permian-like extinction event but 500 times faster plus habitat destruction and toxification. There won't be anything left bigger than a tardigrade and very possibly not even that. Humans are pathetic, fragile, frail, feeble creatures. Read my lips, humans are gone. All humans. Squashed like a bug. We don't make it past first base of this event. All complex life could be destroyed forever. This is blowing up a planet.

https://twitter.com/MarkCranfield_/status/1490560959466942472?t=oWb8CUy1K7FhMv9x-sUrEQ&s=19

I'm a 25-year career professional risk analyst in Bristol.

The climate science community has suffered catastrophic failure due to capture by global elites.

Narratives are set by elites and then supported and reinforced by the expert community, per Kevin Anderson's recent study.

Our true situation is *orders of magnitude* worse that the experts realise, let alone the public.

In December, James Hansen confirmed equilibrium warming of ~10C above preindustrial based solely on the GHGs already in the atmosphere.

There's is no way of avoiding 2C in the 2040s, which is 3C+ average on land, up from the present 1.8C.

Make no mistake, this is an *apocalyptic event* occurring over the next 5, 10, 15 years.

Societies must prepare for imminent, catastrophic climate impacts now. *Every else is a waste of critical time*.

Prioritise water, food, electricity, transport/distribution, protect the vulnerable, heat/flood defence.

https://twitter.com/MarkCranfield_/status/1616272077153275904?t=JKr76Mr5RtgMR-EIQRCGug&s=19

@KevinClimate @fionaharvey @mrmatthewtaylor @ClimateHuman @JamesGDyke @chriscmooney @DianaUrge @BBCJustinR @RHarrabin @hey_alirae @TyndallCentre @CEMUSUPPSALA @UiBCET @jo_UoMEnergy @KanitkarT @tjayaraman

https://twitter.com/MarkCranfield_/status/1640967440275308545?t=JKr76Mr5RtgMR-EIQRCGug&s=19

The goal to cut emissions is a *narrative* created by global elites and supported and reinforced by the expert community.

If 100% of emissions stopped, at least 1°C of global warming would be added due to loss of fossil fuel particulate air pollution which cools the Earth by… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…

https://twitter.com/MarkCranfield_/status/1638392597969240064?t=twMkFG_WGMnW7wtDfdoohg&s=19

Imagine a horror film where everyone in the world believes that the solution to impending catastrophe is to reduce emissions when in reality cutting emissions massively accelerates planetary apocalypse.

Well you don't need to imagine because we are living that horror film. twitter.com/i/web/status/1… Screenshot from James Hansen's "Storms of My Grandchildren"

There is no possibility whatsoever of climate stabilisation. This isn't my opinion, this is physical reality.

Our stable, farming-friendly Holocene is gone forever. The end Holocene is the only definitively safe climate for human civilisation and agriculture.

The ice sheets… twitter.com/i/web/status/1… Full video

Can it be slowed down?

The planet is in extreme imbalance. The equilibrium temperature for the GHGs in the air is ~10°C above preindustrial. We're currently at 1.2C. The earth will drive hard, accelerating towards its equilibrium, as demanded by physics.

We're currently in an… twitter.com/i/web/status/1… On geoengineering aka solar radiation management...

https://twitter.com/MarkCranfield_/status/1631054343850938368?s=19