Recently had my 798th and final week at @theCCCuk. We didn’t get everything right, but I’m sure we helped the UK’s climate journey over those 15 years.
🦣🧵 on the CCC and UK decarbonisation, a story in 3 parts: The Start, The Struggle, and Net Zero
Background
CCC is UK’s independent statutory climate adviser (1st of its kind in world)
Formal role to advise on emissions targets, adaptation plans, and progress v both
Informally, to help the politics and guide the narrative. Most think we did a decent job (quotes GRI_LSE)
Pre-CCC:
A long time ago, UK had a 2050 emissions target of -60% that only covered CO2. Wise folk @friends_earth (@bryworthington) made Big Ask for a climate bill. @lordstern1 & team wrote definitive review showing action better than inaction. @David_Cameron hugged a husky
By 2007, a Bill was in Parliament and shadow CCC was set up (I was ~10th employee, there was a start-up vibe, we joked how OLD we’d all be by 2020 😬). @DKennedyFFaB (1st CEO) set the vision and ensured an emphasis on evidence and engagement from the start.
2008: The actual Committee arrived, led by peerless @AdairTurnerUK. First CCC advice was to up 2050 target to 80% & all GHGs. Climate Change Act was passed by >400 to 5 MPs, with 80% GHG goal (the world’s first legally-binding emissions target).
Cross-party consensus to act.
Days after the Act, @theCCCuk put our first report out, rec’ing carbon budgets to 2022 based on UK capabilities, EU targets and unofficial international goal at time to limit warming to ~2C (and need to avoid 4C). Crucially, report centred need for low-carbon electricity system
2009: first CCC progress report kept electricity focus (also energy efficiency, electric cars) and sowed the seeds for market reform. Called for a step change in the rate of progress across the economy
By end 2009, Copenhagen COP15 hadn’t gone as planned 😟.
In 2010 @theCCCuk advised on UK’s 4th carbon budget – now based on desirable bottom-up actions consistent with global goal (kind of a UK NDC before NDCs were cool).
Now recommending tendering (auctioning) CfDs for power.
To help new 2010 coalition Govt resolve nuclear differences CCC were asked to review renewable energy. In 2011, recommended a portfolio approach (which became 2 auction pots for CfDs), with innovation support for offshore wind, removal of barriers and clearer commitment to 2030
2011: followed with bioenergy review (tldr: make sure it’s sustainable, appreciate it’s scarce & valuable, so prioritise its use carefully)
2012: Combo with earlier reviews on aviation, shipping, innovation allowed a refreshed 2050 picture emphasising ambition, action & options
That completed Part 1 for CCC (& Lord Turner’s reign).
Then Part 2:The Struggle, @lorddeben perfectly cast as Chair.
Mythbusting on energy bills & competitiveness, defending CB4. Green Crap won on efficiency, but £8bn (annually) kept for renewables.
Aside: People always say electricity was the easy bit – it didn’t feel like it at the time. Needed serious commitment from @hmtreasury at the height of austerity, lots of clever work from civil servants (@SimonVirley @timbolord et al) and huge industry push
(probs still true)
2015: CCC advice on 5th Carbon Budget fleshed out detailed path to 2030.
Rapidly overtaken by COP21 Paris Agreement, 1.5C and Net Zero. Clear that UK would need a Net Zero goal soon, but Overton window wasn’t open yet: UK needed to get serious on current targets first.
Govt plans for CB5 were painfully slow coming out, but made an important shift in the politics to ‘Clean Growth’ (h/t @GuyNewey @NickHurdUK @ClaireClimate). Essence captured in this @owenbellamy chart
Meanwhile, @IPCC_CH were digging into 1.5C and Net Zero, climate change images were hitting the news, #SchoolStrikeforClimate @ExtinctionR were coming, and lawsuits were popping up.
CCC asked Govt to ask us the Net Zero question, and @GregClarkMP @ClaireClimate did
That set the scene for CCC Part 3 on Net Zero under @ChiefExecCCC:
🎯 Net Zero (2019) established the goal
📉 Sixth Carbon Budget, CB6 (2020) set the path
🗺️ Progress Report (2022) set the delivery framework
Net Zero is ubiquitous now, but a leap at the time. Amazing to see uptake since across the world
Lots of work to establish not just that it was necessary (thx @IPCC_CH @Grantham_IC) but also feasible, credible & cost-effective for UK (thx to massive shift across @theCCCuk team)
Net Zero needed foundation of #FifthCarbonBudget #CleanGrowthStrategy, cheap plentiful offshore wind & improving EVs.
And needed better evidence on hydrogen, bioenergy, land use (3⃣ 2018 CCC reports), industry decarb (#MissionPossible), removals (@royalsociety) & the rest
Reminder: UK target is all GHGs (not just CO2) and all sectors (inc ✈️🚢), so ahead of what needed for world as a whole for 1.5C. Helped that others (🇸🇪🇫🇷🇳🇿🇪🇺, Cali) were moving.
Still, if can go further, we should!
Other vital bits:
🪟 Political space thx @ExtinctionR #Greta
🧠 Expert advisers: Pete Betts @BerniceWLee Paul Ekins @RainNewtonSmith @watsonjim2 (+many more)
📢 Brilliant champions: @ChiefExecCCC @lordDeben (+many outside CCC)
😂💪 Bold politicians: @ClaireClimate @theresa_may
2020: CB6. Building directly on NZ work, @theCCCuk built the path to get there. All dials to 11, but focused on realism from where we were, real-world constraints and policy limits. As much focus on how to get there as the targets themselves. 1,000 pages of delight
There’s a wealth of great resources from CCC on CB6: webinars on most angles; expert papers on policy, finance, health; sector deep dives; advice for business & LAs; and – yes – lots of data and spreadsheets theccc.org.uk/publication/si…
2021: Net Zero Strategy. Government response broadly endorsed CCC pathways – similar ambitions by sector and by technology. No big surprise, as @lorddeben likes to say: there’s not a lot of elbow room
[Also #COP26 ofc - no doubt it focused minds in UK]
PR2022. Last big CCC piece in the Net Zero puzzle – a set of maps breaking down what needs to happen in every area of emissions to go from where we are to Net Zero. Lots of policy still needed, lots of actions for businesses and households.
Poss most imp bit #AllAboutAction
So much to be proud of in there, as world shifted off 4C traj towards 1.5-2C. Obvs not there yet and goes waaaay beyond CCC, but I hope we played our part 🤗
Looking fwd to watching CCC from outside. Am sure it will keep being a (inter)national institutional treasure
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