Thread by @DefMon3

Ukraine update🧵 January 30th

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Yesterdays thread:

Shelling locations reported by UA general staff today.

Overview images

Keep in mind, the frontline is constantly moving and positions are changing hands.

Weather by @davidhelms570
The weather is getting warmer and traversing in the terrain will be come more and more difficult.

Kreminna-Siversk
The AFU repulsed attacks in the area of Bilohorivka and Yampolivka. I'm closely watching this area, but there are not a lot of news coming out of it.

Bakhmut N
The AFU repulsed attacks in the area of Rozdolivka, Vasyukivka, Paraskoviivka and Bakhmut. It's worth keeping an eye on if AFU can hold the high ground west of the T0513 road, however losing some ground NW of Krasna Hora is not a big deal.

I do not think the bigger road has been M03 has been in full use for a while. Another ting to look out for is if AFU decide to pull back behind the Bakhmutovka River inside the city. It might be a sing of a pending withdrawal from the city.

Bakhmut S
The AFU repulsed attacks in the area of Ivanivske, Klishchiivka, Kurdyumivka and Ozaryanivka. As can be seen, Ru forces have managed to advance along the canal in the forest belt NW of Klishchiivka. Still unclear if AFU lost their fortified positions N of Klishchiivka.

The situation is getting worse in Bakhmut, both of the main supply roads in to the town are now extremely dangerous, to travel. There are a few smaller less suitable roads which might still be safe to use.

If the Ru progress rate keeps up, Ukraine will possibly have to abandon Bakhmut in 2-4 weeks time. It can be prevented or the timeframe might change if AFU manage to stop, revert or slow the RU progress. Take this as a warning to get mentally prepared rather than a prediction.

Vuhledar
No news for this area today. Fighting is ongoing south of Vuhledar, but I don't see any real change. What I'm looking for here are attempts to envelop Vuhledar from the west to cut supplies to the city.

A change in pace might indicate movement along the frontline and a change of tactic. Ru forces have suffered large defeats twice trying to attack Vuhledar head on with some of their best units.

A lot of people say the Russians are stupid, but I disagree. They have adapted well to battlefield changes. I think one major difference between how we define success compared to the Russians is they only are about if they made progress, but we also consider the cost.

Ukraine has just secured some large aid packages, with even more things being discussed at the moment. Their forces now should not be symbolic wins to show the world they can make progress.

I believe the best way for Ukraine to secure future success and preserve offensive potential is to swap to more of an aggressive defense rather than offense.

It seems RuAF are willing to commit their VDV and Naval infantry in the Vulhedar, Bakhmut and Kreminna area. These as well as the wagner cannon fodder have proven during the course of the war to be the most effective. They have also proven to be effective in defense.

If Ukraine now can swap to seek opportunities to do smaller local attacks, especially in the north rather than trying to advance, they could possibly attrit the RU elite forces enough to get in a good position for a spring offensive.

We must not forget, both Ukraine and Russia are actively training and setting up new units. Both sided are largely made up by mobilized personnel with very little training.

I believe the deciding factors during the spring/summer will be the level of training and ammunition availability. It will be very important for Ukraine to actually be able to maneuver effectively with the new mechanized equipment provided by the west.

It would be a big advantage for the AFU if the brigades equipped with western IFVs and tanks will be able to conduct offensive operations at night. This is extremely hard and requires a lot of training and it will be interesting to see if the will be able to do it.