Justin Bronk Profile picture
Senior Research Fellow for Airpower and Military Technology at RUSI, London. Professor II at the Royal Norwegian Air Force Academy. Pilot. Views are my own.

Feb 8, 2023, 6 tweets

For those on the give Ukraine Tranche 1 Typhoon train, since the question has been asked;
1) The RAF does not have 53 serviceable Tranche 1s to give. There are far fewer now (c20-25).
2) Those remaining have much more limited combat/weapons capabilities than Tranche 2/3 (1/6)

3) Typhoon is not optimised for low altitude A-A, but would need to fly low near the frontlines in Ukraine, due to the Russian SAM threat.
4) Typhoon is not suitable to operate from dispersed, quite short and rough airbases that the UkrAF use to avoid Ru missile strikes (2/6)

5) The RAF Typhoon force is badly, badly overstretched already. Too many operational commitments with too few aircraft, and inadequate spares and munitions stocks.
6) Even a handful of Tranche 1s for Ukraine would use up lots of those scarce spares, engineers and airframes. (3/6)

7) The value of any Tranche 1 gift would be almost purely symbolic, rather than a practical and sustainable UkrAF asset.
8) That symbol might be worth it if it politically enables Sweden to supply Gripen C or another partner to supply F-18.
(4/6)

9) Typhoon (and F-16) aren’t suitable for Ukrainian Air Force bases at present due to rough surfaces and FoD, and resurfacing them with to make runways suitable will make them obvious and immediate targets for Russian missile strikes.
(5/6)

10) So, a very serious hit to already badly overstretched RAF frontline capability worth it for a largely symbolic gesture? Maybe
But only if others DO follow with more suitable types AND the RAF gets urgent funds to replace the donated jets, spares, weapons and specialists (6/6)

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