Thread by @JoshuaSteinman

Could be another balloon.

**IF TRUE** let’s explore what the ÇÇP might be doing with a global balloon surveillance/warfare program:

1/🧵

First off, let’s get something out of the way: this doable today. Remember Project Loon at Google “X”?

None of that “That’s impossible!” Stuff in the comments.

computer.howstuffworks.com/google-loon.htm

2/

My guess is they would have first designed a single platform and control system, built around a “bus” with certain parameters. X amount of power. Y degree of connectivity. Z weight.

Get that working. Make sure it can perform.

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3/

Then, you hand it over to the payload designers. One imagines the easiest thing to do first is cameras.

For those who say “but muh satellites,” just remember, you can get a LOT closer, and ballon’s are probably significant cheaper, and have longer “persistence.”

4/

Once they have EO/IR, I bet they would have expanded out beyond imagery collection, to SIGINT.

Here again, we get cheap persistence, and probably decent connectivity via SATCOM.

5/

After SIGINT, things get spicy. I would start looking at kinetic capabilities.

What can you put on a balloon? Someone smart told me their back-of-the-napkin math was that an EMP at 40,000 feet could take out a 500-mile-diameter area. “Big if true,” as they say.

6/

Finally, I would start looking at novel operational constructs.

Sure, you can launch them from mainland China, but what about ÇÇP warships?

… what about ÇÇP-controlled container ships carrying civilian cargo?

Endless possibilities.

7/

And those novel operational constructs might give you new ideas for new platforms. Smaller balloons. Bigger balloons. And so on.

The development cycle would start anew.

8/

That’s all I have for now. But just remember: the world of asymmetric technologies offers many such opportunities.

We ignore them at our own peril!

9/9

If you’ve read this far you might as well retweet the top tweet so we can really drive them up a wall: