Thread by @BULLReturns

Thought of the day: Return compounding is all about timeframes in #cyclicals, 10x over 5 years reinvested in 10x over 5 years reinvested in 10x over 5 years with 1-2 year waiting between reinvestment = 1000x over 17-19 years. Are you formulating your compounding plan?

Our working example:

$BTU from $1.21 = 13x < 30 months

deployed into:

$IREN from $1.32 = expect 10x over 48 months

deployed into:

Unknown at this time = 8x

Total return = >1000x

Documented is previous tweets

Why $BTU it was -98%, with a reasonable probability of a debt restructuring, coupled with quarterly cashflow that could move from $20m to $500m = 30x re-rate

Why $IREN is was down -96%, reasonable survivability runway, cashflow ability at $50k #Bitcoin would equate to >5x entry

@GjStocks An example: $WKT

At 10c it's 5-8x returner over 5yrs

At 5c it's 10-16x returner over 5yrs

So the lower the sp goes with unchanged core assumptions, the higher the return.

The vision required includes - successful project implementation and scalable production over 5yrs.

@Pedro82854342 What's falling to 15-20yr lows?

#preciousmetalstocks ??

If #lumber falls below $300, what opportunities will be available?

@GjStocks Why 99% won't be able to compound a portion of their portfolio at 1000x over 19 years?
- average holding period is 3 months compared with the 5yrs plus required
- very few have the emotional position to buy on -97% sales
- the perceived low risk near cycle tops

@SemiGodDevil The key for what comes out of the oven is 80% based on spot price for #cyclicals

#Bitcoin next cycle peak? US$75k-175K

#Uranium $95/lb average for the peak year? $AEE $FSY $WSTRF $EU

Expandable #graphite > $2000 basket price? $WKT

#Metcoal next peak year 2027> $400/t $CKA

Turning $20k into $20mil over 20 years is the objective:

1st asymmetric trade 20k becomes $220k

2nd asymmetric trade 220k becomes $2.4m

3rd asymmetric trade $2.4m becomes > $20m

How to pick your 1st asymmetric trade? #cyclical

1st -96-98% is fertile ground (market cycle bottoms offer)

2nd Mean reversion given cashflow reversion, look for where spot prices can 3-5x from lows

3rd Safer ground is where the sector behaviour is consistent over cycles

One niche example: based on #gold spot +50%, #silver +100%

#preciousmetalstocks

Nano caps <$20m with compelling possibilities at >$2500 spot

$GPR was a recent one 1-1.7c accummulation range

$WWI at 0.5-0.9c is on our watchlist @ $2500 spot project IRR> 70% & NPV>30x cap

@Peak_Ascent We would add that burning match #preciousmetal explorers are tricky beasts, they are not our preferred focus generally speaking. Too many are lifestyle cash burners for the CEO. Several are approaching extremely low historic valuations, so it would be remiss if we didn't zoom in

@deruyter1667 $IREN would have struggled to go bankrupt in the worst sector conditions, ie. if Bitcoin went to 8k.

At $1 was trading at 0.3x 2024/25 CF

Implied > 20x upside

Note how $IREN trades over the next 18 months as #Bitcoin achieves:

35k = $4.50-5.50 +4x return

70k = $14-16 +15x return

105k = $22-28 >21x return

#Energy is on the move....