Cycle Bottom Profile picture
Retiring Investment Manager focusing on Cycle Bottom Entry and active Catalysts
joulmo Profile picture PDXCharlie Profile picture T D Profile picture Josef Leebmann Profile picture 5 added to My Authors
Mar 23 4 tweets 1 min read
Realities with 75% of nano cap #gold explorers, or potential pre-production plays:

- lifestyle operations for the CEO/chairman
- burning matches, dilution can be 95% prior to achieving much
- timeframes of 1 year become 4 rather quickly
- require huge margin of safety for entry What sort of margin of safety do we hear you ask?
- Cap < 5% NPV < 30% resource
- Cap < 25% of optimized annual cashflow
- IRR > 100% at $2500 spot
- Insider ownership > 20%
- Independent due diligence on Financing to verify DFS
- Cap/oz < $4
Mar 22 4 tweets 2 min read
Thought of the day: Recency bias from #commodity peak when everything in the rear vision mirror looks "solid" is an optical illusion, around the bend a cliff is coming into sight a "recession", often stockprices drop 75% plus. Demand can get slaughtered at the margin. #lithium & #coal are great case studies for those of our followers who don't understand nothing is rare at 80% cash margins and 20% cost.

Mar 21 5 tweets 2 min read
$SBER up 19x if depositary receipts were purchased <50c and converted plus incoming 200% dividend yield. A little outperformance over 12 months Vs peers group in Europe & US. Another successful #asymmetric theme in play. Who would have thought the globally best investment theme over the last 12 months would be #Russianstocks (purchased in crashed DRs) that 83% of the world pop didn't sanction?

Note the buy valuations (using 3yr trailing pre-war averages):

Dividend yields > 100%
PE < 0.7x
Mar 17 4 tweets 3 min read
PEs < 3x there are hundreds out there in Frontier markets, many growing eps at 20% per year plus. Let alone Fossil fuel stocks. Remember a < 3x on peak #commodity spots is > 15x on spot lows
Mar 16 4 tweets 2 min read
#Uranium cycle realties:

- multiple 50% sector drawdowns

- explorers can drawdown 80% intra cycle

- it's unlikely to swim against the pack of other #commodities

- the constant reloading of spot supply with lack of utility buyers creates uncertain in price discovery

- another 20% downside can't be ruled out for this down-leg, 35% plus for high beta burning matches (2-6 months of further pain)

- the next upleg (if backed by $65-75 spot) will provide 2-3x returns for the sector & 6-9x for high beta burning matches (4-18months out)

Mar 16 6 tweets 3 min read
To call the bottom of #commodities #uranium in 2023, one must call the market bottom 1st, if you have no idea on that, then you will accummulate too early, as many are doing. Note: under aggressive #contagion conditions 95% of #commodities are heavily correlated together.

The 5% will likely be extremely short on inventory levels, with lack of short term supply response.

#uranium spot market receives reloading of up to 1.5mlbs per month...
Mar 14 4 tweets 2 min read
Thought of the day: Investor Survivability & Opportunity Kit for 2023:
- ensure you have 30%+ cash weighting for deployment into fresh asymmetric themes
- ensure you have exited ponzi tech and other rubbish which will implode within the next 12 months
- ensure 9 months cost cover Last night at lows at a few #regionalbanks approached 0.2x book coupled with survivability features = new asymmetric theme
Mar 12 4 tweets 1 min read
Thought of the day: Banks Runs aren't fun, 3rd party risk acceleration in stepping up, the breaking of the system is now at a pivotal point, 👉 markets will react accordingly. Bargain basement equity valuations will abound as risk tops out, fresh asymmetric theme entry for 2H2023 The week ahead for US #financials could see -20-25% corrections if regulators don't act to build confidence with depositors. This could flow into -5-8% S&P500 impact, high beta plays could take a 30% hit. Redux 2008.

The playbook is set....
Mar 10 4 tweets 3 min read
Where is the alignment of interest? Avoid the asset collectors, focus in on the performance collectors. Watch out for the specialists who want their 5 minutes of fame to extend for 40 minutes.

Follow the multi cycle generalists who have seen it all, they are not anchored in peak cycles whereas specialists are.

Mar 9 5 tweets 1 min read
#auraenergy $AEE the global $1 party is looking set for 2H 2024, entry for those with 1m shares plus

Who is joining us? 1m shares

Cost A$26k at the bottom

Will cost A$335k today

Will be A$1m 2H 2024

......perhaps A$4m through 2028

The power of sitting and compounding $AEE #uranium
Mar 9 5 tweets 3 min read
We provided full guidance on this opportunity over this period....while many were overpaying for explorers and high AISC plays, we did the opposite and shared this widely. $AEE #uranium

The weighing machine works in the end, the voting machine has a shorter life. Tiris resource will grow to a major deposit within 4 years due to nearology, new DFS out this month....

Haggan a monster mix of battery metals and #uranium has a very low AISC due to the monster credits.....Sweden moving to pro-mining this Month.

Total NPV per share > $4
Mar 8 4 tweets 2 min read
We are independent thinkers $WKT 1.2x 2024 (0.6x 2027) CF, $CKA 1.8x 2024 CF (0.4x 2027) and $AEE 1x 2025 CF (0.5x 2028)

#uranium We won't mention a position unless we own it or are accummulating it (and eventually scaling down, often due to size constraints of our 20 baggers), sometimes in size, we are paid by noone to promote anything. We are asset managers who investor near cycle bottoms.
Mar 8 4 tweets 2 min read
$AEE outperforming #uranium again today +30% in the last week.

- few have read the Haggan Scoping Study < $20 AISC
- Sweden is going pro-mining
- Tiris updated DFS pushes the NPV up massively
- #auraenergy is underexposed Vs peers When we entered into this potential 100 bagger we read everything we could get our hands, as the price fell 65% we tripled up and tripled up again, why?

- it was by far the best value of the whole sector with 2 great #uranium projects
- we worked hard to create alignment ...
Mar 5 4 tweets 2 min read
#AuraEnergy incoming Tiris NPV upgrade > 150% & Sweden pro-mining move adds an NPV > 10x the current cap back into the mix.

Which #uranium stock has a resource over 850mlbs and is trading at less than US$140m?

$AEE The Tiris NPV will scale up to > US$1.2bn over 5years due to nearology.

Haggan NPV will be US$2-5bn over the next 7 years with full credits included.

Cap US$140m
2025 NPV $2.0bn
2027 NPV $3.5bn
2029 NPV $5.0bn

Mar 5 7 tweets 3 min read
Thought of the day: Return compounding is all about timeframes in #cyclicals, 10x over 5 years reinvested in 10x over 5 years reinvested in 10x over 5 years with 1-2 year waiting between reinvestment = 1000x over 17-19 years. Are you formulating your compounding plan? Our working example:

$BTU from $1.21 = 13x < 30 months

deployed into:

$IREN from $1.32 = expect 10x over 48 months

deployed into:

Unknown at this time = 8x

Total return = >1000x
Feb 19 10 tweets 2 min read
Thought of the day: The biggest mistake of 90% of investors, is to overtrade (our guidance is not to trade, but to invest, sitting being the most important element), therefore missing 65% of the returns that simple cycle bottom & reversion to the mean investing delivers. Let's review an Asymmetric trade in play: $RIG

65c low moving to $15 high (overshot potential to $25 = > 20x

Holding time: 4-7yrs = sitting

Likely 50% plus draw downs within the holding period: 3-4

Day rates: < $200k to over > $700k
Capacity Utilization: <50% to >97%
Feb 17 5 tweets 1 min read
The key pleasing point is the new staff additions, as this will drive 2Q volume efficiency and expansion.

The pivot back to Met is key given the higher margin opportunity.

Couple these 2 positives = > $50/t margin 2Q-3Q 2023

$AHQ Regal has a short term positive wave to complete their selling into....

Future dilution is still on the cards.
Feb 14 6 tweets 4 min read
#AuraEnergy initial #uranium reserve expansion, we expect this to move from 30mlbs to over 70mlb within the next 30 months. In the next few weeks expect the initial substantial lift in NPV as the project capacity increases to 3mlbs and the AISC falls to around $20. $AEE 30mlb reserve NPV at $75 pricing = A$400m or 60c per share

70mlb NPV = A$1.0bn or $1.30 per share

$AEE #uranium
Feb 14 5 tweets 2 min read
Sentiment is dictated by stockprice direction for many, we engage the opportunity view, $15m cap Vs 2027 NPV potential of $2bn, is worth putting in the work, if survivability occurs with moderate dilution then = 20x bagger. Most don't have the stomach for the required work. $AHQ Likely the major holder Regal is dumping their position, we will see in the filings. 1Q - 2Q 2023 was always the timeframe required to evaluate optimization potential on $AHQ, now it's time to do the work.

With the likelihood of very dilutive cap raise, we are watching this.
Feb 9 4 tweets 1 min read
Thought of the day: A lifestyle explorer mining company is something to generally avoid, look for the following characteristics, CEO's earning over $300k, G&A exceeding 25% of annual spend, G&A exceeding 10% of cap. Alignment of interests are key for returns. In our previous activist wins we faced the following:
- the stupidity of retail believing existing mgmt when G&A exceeds 35% of cap & the CEO receiving up to 18% of cap (top performing fund managers are receiving less than 3% of AUM).
- being attacked by the old mgmt teams
Feb 7 5 tweets 2 min read
Thought of the day: Calling yourself right when the return horse race is not past the 500 metre mark is premature to say the least. The extremely negative rear vision mirror often turns into 20 baggers. Knowing the difference is the key. Top to bottom of high cyclicality situations are often -95% plus....

Bottom to Top of the most misread cycle bottoms can be >30x...

The closer to bankruptcy, the lower the cap near the cycle bottom, the higher the cycle return.

$BTU 80c to $40?
$RIG 65c to $20?