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Cycle Bottom Profile picture
Cycle Bottom
@BULLReturns
Retiring Investment Manager sharing their 10x10x10=1000 methodology
Rick Grimsley Profile picture joulmo Profile picture PDXCharlie Profile picture T D Profile picture Josef Leebmann Profile picture 7 subscribed
Jul 16 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Playing $SOLG via $DGR at a 70% discount has paid off....

#gold +20% $SOLG = +200% $DGR
Jul 14 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
We note those calling for a material US market sell off in the next 3-6 months has increased substantially in recent weeks, what have we done 1H 2024 to cushion and provide multi options to take advance of this event:

A) We scaled back on >10 baggers trading on likely...

1/ .... non secure valuations. These include #bitcoin miners like $IREN, excessively valued #uranium stocks.

B) Dry powder is at 35%, & will go to over 50% on the current continued leg higher

C) Physical ETFs holding #gold #silver #bitcoin are included in dry powder

2/
Jun 21 • 6 tweets • 1 min read
For our followers: Its the final June tax loss selling next week for the ASX

A few tips to guide your actions
a) #lithium stocks making new lows with credible IRRs, cap < 4% NPV, cap < 0.4x CF 3-4yrs out, controlled dilution = >8x returns
b) $AAU 0.3c = US$4m cap post raise
1/2 #Antilles has tripped massively in 2Q, can it recover materially 2H +1x? $4m legal claim and equipment sales. Project NPVs still US$200m

c) $AEE at 10-13c #uranium, hit by option conversion selling, material raise with negative sentiment and now tax loss selling, 2H +1x?
Jun 20 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
#lithium on the cycle clock 0-5 minutes range:

Look for > 50% IRR projects round tripping to last cycle lows

Cap < 0.4x CF 3-4yrs out

= > 8x returns Bottoming process can take another 6 months, but compelling entry points to begin scale in are upon us.... remember 95% corrections with the above matrix look interesting for > 8x within 36 months.
Jun 12 • 6 tweets • 1 min read
Our Revised NPV fully diluted for Tiris based on todays expanded resource $AEE #Tiris #uranium Image Notes:

a) Further Expanded resource is highly discounted when using 10% beyond 16yr mine life.

b) High sensitivity to LT contracted prices

c) Excludes Swedish assets
Jun 12 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
$AEE every +10mlbs added to reserves at #tiris adds US$120m to the NPV = +150% of current cap. #Aura #uranium Image Using the full 91mlbs at 80% recoverable, $85 pricing, then our NPV per share comes out at $1.25 on 1.1bn fully diluted share base for #Tiris

We expect 91mlbs to double over 8-10 years given this new #uranium district.
Jun 8 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
Those monthly producers selling into the spot are having a material effect at the margin #uranium We cant rule out the spot moving below the LT price on this downleg #uranium
Jun 4 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Our "unexpected" #uranium producers can only achieve debt financing at $80-85 LT pricing likely being sustained for over 6 months $FSY $LAM $GXU $WUC $AEE

Average valuation upside +200% at $120 Spot sustained for 9 months

+300% at $140 Spot for 6 months If these projects lag, they will become takeover targets by those that have > 1bn cap valuations
May 6 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
What will be the average PE of your pre-production sub $200m #uranium caps in 2027? If you are saying < 3x .... best you get real with the dilution.... 50% assumption in the capex year, excluding the 15% annualized burn is likely.
Apr 28 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Hate allows unique fresh asymmetric themes to be uncovered on a continual basis. Positive Consensus is where mediocrity is located, hence we avoid it.... generally a scale down indicator
Apr 25 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
At what point do you vote with your feet to exit such a system.... 25% tax on unrealized capital gains, so one will be forced to realize to pay the taxes on > 10 bagger. Forced liquidations for tax bills could occur.... imagine Musk & Buffet tax bills which would require stock liquidations to pay.
Apr 16 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
12 minutes on the 1 hour cycle clock folks #Silver #Gold
2nd Quartile $2500-$2800 / $32-38

3rd Quartile $2800-$3100 / $38-44

4th Quartile > $3100 / > $44

Understanding the cycle is the 1st 🗝️
Apr 8 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
We have exited, leaving the remaining 50% return to the late arrivals. #uranium Without stating the dilution, this chart has very little meaning.
Apr 7 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
For our followers we guide them on how to increase their success rate to over 80% by following these simple rules on #repeatablecyclicality:

a) Deploying within 6 month of a cycle bottom

b) Scaling out within the last 50% of returns from a sector (post >5x returns)

1/2 c) Avoidance of critical errors causing material losses

d) We guide you on near cycle lows and scale down ranges for mature cycles

e) Indicating the bias' which reduce your success - FOMO, over crowded themes, recency extrapolating, over bought upcycle legs etc

2/2
Apr 4 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
$MCI top of the pops for 2 days running (200% in 2 days) Many of the micro #preciousmetal caps were left for road kill, hence the inflows ate 20-30x the previous 3 month volumes, driving this unique set up 3-4x within 3 months of the start of this bull market in February 2024. 3 ASX listed #gold Micro caps yet to depart and double (all are > 7x returners at 3000 spot sustained for 12 months), each has their respective catalysts:

$AAU 1.9c to 15c, 2Q news flow 1st mine PFS, offtake financing etc

$GPR 1.9c to 20c revised DFS and mine plan 3Q

1/2
Mar 23 • 7 tweets • 1 min read
#goldstock selection criteria to look for > 100% IRRs at 2500 trading on < 4% 2026 NPV = 10 baggers
Mar 3 • 6 tweets • 1 min read
The thesis is going mainstream $AEE #uranium Our followers know we have predicted this change was incoming for the last 3 years
Feb 28 • 10 tweets • 2 min read
$AEE #Tiris FEED study - note the NPV using $100 spot at Full Recoverable resource (post the new additional drilling program) is > A$1.5bn or $2 per share. Next steps Resource upgrade, Followed by Offtake and Financing over the next 6 months. #uranium Image The A$520m NPV (@$80) is based off < 50% of the 2024 incoming resource....

Hence 70c per share diluted will move to $1.40 or $2 if $100 LT #uranium pricing is used.
Feb 27 • 9 tweets • 2 min read
Wow our #bitcoin miners are flying 8x returns over 14 months of holding time.

$60k = 9x

$65k = 10x

$135-175k = 15-18x

#repeatablecyclicality Note how running multiple asymmetric themes cushions the volatility in ones overall portfolio

#uranium -20%
#bitcoin and miners an average of +30%
Feb 26 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
#RepeatableCyclicality requires an exit as well as a fresh asymmetric entry. The cycle dictates ones position, nothing else. How to avoid destruction in cyclicality investing:

a) Understanding the cycle is the 1st key to everything

b) Scaling in near cycle lows

c) Scaling out near near maturing cycles

d) Running multiple cyclical themes, with 5-7% exposure on entry provides balance & safety
Feb 25 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Remember those who said the ban wont be removed Vs those of us who said skate to where the puck is going, not where it has been #uranium $AEE $DMX Combine 2bn lbs resource at < $30 AlSC post credits = > $50bn of CF over 30yrs from 2029.