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Cycle Bottom Profile picture
Cycle Bottom
@BULLReturns
Retiring Investment Manager sharing their 10x10x10=1000 methodology
Rick Grimsley Profile picture joulmo Profile picture PDXCharlie Profile picture Slasher Profile picture Josef Leebmann Profile picture 7 subscribed
Aug 3 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
For our followers: Now that the sky has started it's fall and you have stocked up on dry powder as we have guided, the next step is to review watchlist entry points. It's key one moves to a Greed mode over the next 6 months as markets bottom, removal of Fearfulness. Some massive compelling cycle bottoms will occur in such industrial commodities such as #lithium

Look for...

> 95% declines from peak
Cap < 3% of NPV
Cap < 30% of Cash flow 3-4yrs out
IRRs > 40% on $25k pricing

= > 10x returns

Don't be surprised if 2020 lows are achieved.
Jul 16 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Playing $SOLG via $DGR at a 70% discount has paid off....

#gold +20% $SOLG = +200% $DGR
Jul 14 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
We note those calling for a material US market sell off in the next 3-6 months has increased substantially in recent weeks, what have we done 1H 2024 to cushion and provide multi options to take advance of this event:

A) We scaled back on >10 baggers trading on likely...

1/ .... non secure valuations. These include #bitcoin miners like $IREN, excessively valued #uranium stocks.

B) Dry powder is at 35%, & will go to over 50% on the current continued leg higher

C) Physical ETFs holding #gold #silver #bitcoin are included in dry powder

2/
Jun 21 • 6 tweets • 1 min read
For our followers: Its the final June tax loss selling next week for the ASX

A few tips to guide your actions
a) #lithium stocks making new lows with credible IRRs, cap < 4% NPV, cap < 0.4x CF 3-4yrs out, controlled dilution = >8x returns
b) $AAU 0.3c = US$4m cap post raise
1/2 #Antilles has tripped massively in 2Q, can it recover materially 2H +1x? $4m legal claim and equipment sales. Project NPVs still US$200m

c) $AEE at 10-13c #uranium, hit by option conversion selling, material raise with negative sentiment and now tax loss selling, 2H +1x?
Jun 20 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
#lithium on the cycle clock 0-5 minutes range:

Look for > 50% IRR projects round tripping to last cycle lows

Cap < 0.4x CF 3-4yrs out

= > 8x returns Bottoming process can take another 6 months, but compelling entry points to begin scale in are upon us.... remember 95% corrections with the above matrix look interesting for > 8x within 36 months.
Jun 12 • 6 tweets • 1 min read
Our Revised NPV fully diluted for Tiris based on todays expanded resource $AEE #Tiris #uranium Image Notes:

a) Further Expanded resource is highly discounted when using 10% beyond 16yr mine life.

b) High sensitivity to LT contracted prices

c) Excludes Swedish assets
Jun 12 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
$AEE every +10mlbs added to reserves at #tiris adds US$120m to the NPV = +150% of current cap. #Aura #uranium Image Using the full 91mlbs at 80% recoverable, $85 pricing, then our NPV per share comes out at $1.25 on 1.1bn fully diluted share base for #Tiris

We expect 91mlbs to double over 8-10 years given this new #uranium district.
Jun 8 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
Those monthly producers selling into the spot are having a material effect at the margin #uranium We cant rule out the spot moving below the LT price on this downleg #uranium
Jun 4 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Our "unexpected" #uranium producers can only achieve debt financing at $80-85 LT pricing likely being sustained for over 6 months $FSY $LAM $GXU $WUC $AEE

Average valuation upside +200% at $120 Spot sustained for 9 months

+300% at $140 Spot for 6 months If these projects lag, they will become takeover targets by those that have > 1bn cap valuations
May 6 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
What will be the average PE of your pre-production sub $200m #uranium caps in 2027? If you are saying < 3x .... best you get real with the dilution.... 50% assumption in the capex year, excluding the 15% annualized burn is likely.
Apr 28 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Hate allows unique fresh asymmetric themes to be uncovered on a continual basis. Positive Consensus is where mediocrity is located, hence we avoid it.... generally a scale down indicator
Apr 25 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
At what point do you vote with your feet to exit such a system.... 25% tax on unrealized capital gains, so one will be forced to realize to pay the taxes on > 10 bagger. Forced liquidations for tax bills could occur.... imagine Musk & Buffet tax bills which would require stock liquidations to pay.
Apr 16 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
12 minutes on the 1 hour cycle clock folks #Silver #Gold
2nd Quartile $2500-$2800 / $32-38

3rd Quartile $2800-$3100 / $38-44

4th Quartile > $3100 / > $44

Understanding the cycle is the 1st 🗝️
Apr 8 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
We have exited, leaving the remaining 50% return to the late arrivals. #uranium Without stating the dilution, this chart has very little meaning.
Apr 7 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
For our followers we guide them on how to increase their success rate to over 80% by following these simple rules on #repeatablecyclicality:

a) Deploying within 6 month of a cycle bottom

b) Scaling out within the last 50% of returns from a sector (post >5x returns)

1/2 c) Avoidance of critical errors causing material losses

d) We guide you on near cycle lows and scale down ranges for mature cycles

e) Indicating the bias' which reduce your success - FOMO, over crowded themes, recency extrapolating, over bought upcycle legs etc

2/2
Apr 4 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
$MCI top of the pops for 2 days running (200% in 2 days) Many of the micro #preciousmetal caps were left for road kill, hence the inflows ate 20-30x the previous 3 month volumes, driving this unique set up 3-4x within 3 months of the start of this bull market in February 2024. 3 ASX listed #gold Micro caps yet to depart and double (all are > 7x returners at 3000 spot sustained for 12 months), each has their respective catalysts:

$AAU 1.9c to 15c, 2Q news flow 1st mine PFS, offtake financing etc

$GPR 1.9c to 20c revised DFS and mine plan 3Q

1/2
Mar 23 • 7 tweets • 1 min read
#goldstock selection criteria to look for > 100% IRRs at 2500 trading on < 4% 2026 NPV = 10 baggers
Mar 3 • 6 tweets • 1 min read
The thesis is going mainstream $AEE #uranium Our followers know we have predicted this change was incoming for the last 3 years
Feb 28 • 10 tweets • 2 min read
$AEE #Tiris FEED study - note the NPV using $100 spot at Full Recoverable resource (post the new additional drilling program) is > A$1.5bn or $2 per share. Next steps Resource upgrade, Followed by Offtake and Financing over the next 6 months. #uranium Image The A$520m NPV (@$80) is based off < 50% of the 2024 incoming resource....

Hence 70c per share diluted will move to $1.40 or $2 if $100 LT #uranium pricing is used.
Feb 27 • 9 tweets • 2 min read
Wow our #bitcoin miners are flying 8x returns over 14 months of holding time.

$60k = 9x

$65k = 10x

$135-175k = 15-18x

#repeatablecyclicality Note how running multiple asymmetric themes cushions the volatility in ones overall portfolio

#uranium -20%
#bitcoin and miners an average of +30%
Feb 26 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
#RepeatableCyclicality requires an exit as well as a fresh asymmetric entry. The cycle dictates ones position, nothing else. How to avoid destruction in cyclicality investing:

a) Understanding the cycle is the 1st key to everything

b) Scaling in near cycle lows

c) Scaling out near near maturing cycles

d) Running multiple cyclical themes, with 5-7% exposure on entry provides balance & safety