Positive Consensus is where mediocrity is located, hence we avoid it.... generally a scale down indicator
Apr 25 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
At what point do you vote with your feet to exit such a system.... 25% tax on unrealized capital gains, so one will be forced to realize to pay the taxes on > 10 bagger.
Without stating the dilution, this chart has very little meaning.
Apr 7 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
For our followers we guide them on how to increase their success rate to over 80% by following these simple rules on #repeatablecyclicality:
a) Deploying within 6 month of a cycle bottom
b) Scaling out within the last 50% of returns from a sector (post >5x returns)
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c) Avoidance of critical errors causing material losses
d) We guide you on near cycle lows and scale down ranges for mature cycles
e) Indicating the bias' which reduce your success - FOMO, over crowded themes, recency extrapolating, over bought upcycle legs etc
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Apr 4 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
$MCI top of the pops for 2 days running (200% in 2 days) Many of the micro #preciousmetal caps were left for road kill, hence the inflows ate 20-30x the previous 3 month volumes, driving this unique set up 3-4x within 3 months of the start of this bull market in February 2024.
3 ASX listed #gold Micro caps yet to depart and double (all are > 7x returners at 3000 spot sustained for 12 months), each has their respective catalysts:
Our followers know we have predicted this change was incoming for the last 3 years
Feb 28 • 10 tweets • 2 min read
$AEE #Tiris FEED study - note the NPV using $100 spot at Full Recoverable resource (post the new additional drilling program) is > A$1.5bn or $2 per share. Next steps Resource upgrade, Followed by Offtake and Financing over the next 6 months. #uranium
The A$520m NPV (@$80) is based off < 50% of the 2024 incoming resource....
Hence 70c per share diluted will move to $1.40 or $2 if $100 LT #uranium pricing is used.
Feb 27 • 9 tweets • 2 min read
Wow our #bitcoin miners are flying 8x returns over 14 months of holding time.
$60k = 9x
$65k = 10x
$135-175k = 15-18x
#repeatablecyclicality
Note how running multiple asymmetric themes cushions the volatility in ones overall portfolio
#uranium -20%
#bitcoin and miners an average of +30%
Feb 26 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
#RepeatableCyclicality requires an exit as well as a fresh asymmetric entry. The cycle dictates ones position, nothing else.
Combine 2bn lbs resource at < $30 AlSC post credits = > $50bn of CF over 30yrs from 2029.
Feb 21 • 11 tweets • 2 min read
#PreciousMetals masterclass incoming today.
85% probability that #gold then #silver with move higher in 2024
Selected micro caps will deliver >7x returns
Step one: Timing the scale in
The Bottoming scale in process, ideally is a mix of the following:
a) >90% falls from peak
b) near the last capital prior to the spots breaking higher
c) cap < 5% of NPV
d) a good project matrix usual the > 50% irr at current spot, >100% at peak
Feb 18 • 6 tweets • 1 min read
Our Investing Methodology in one post:
#RepeatableCyclicality
Scale in 0-7 minutes on the cycle clock
Scale out 50-60 minutes on the cycle clock
The return between >8x
Stick with the highly cyclical sectors & niches... history provides continuous repeats.
Our Stock Selection process in one post:
>93% falls from peaks
Cap < 5% of NPVs 2-3yrs out
Project matrix >50% IRRs at mid cycle spot assumptions, >100% using peak spot assumptions.
Sentiment: hated, expectations extremely low
Spots trading below cost curves
4-5 per theme
Feb 3 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Another sign of later cycle #uranium is non-finance professionals talking about uranium stocks.... Encountered in Sydney this past weekend.
Ofcourse it's not at the uber driver stage as yet, but our 47 minute reading on the 1 hour clock is pretty accurate, given these professional invested in #Lithium at a similar timeframe. #uranium
Feb 1 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Our initial > $1bn cap #uranium scale down is harvesting at 40x returns today, the 2nd scale down range maybe achieved at the ASX open...for 25x returns.
These are both trading on 4-5x peak CF 2026/27....full exit through 8x.
Our sub US$200m pre-production caps are trading at 1.0-1.8x 2026/27 CF fully diluted
Our portfolio remaining upside is 180%, to complete 28x for the cycle.
#uranium
Jan 26 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
The death of an Asymmetric Trade ...
Entry: risk:return -40% : +10-30x
Expiry: -70% : +100% (5-15x returns achieved, 40% of initial position sell down)
Full exit: -90% : +<30% (6.5-20x returns achieved)
Now we are in the accummulation zone based on the next 40% downside over 1H 2024. We are seeing 7x currently on a selection of pre-production plays, this will likely peak out at 14x near lows #lithium
Jan 8 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
The Investment banking catch up as they eye the fee gravy train #uranium
It's a joke having a buy on $BOE at this valuation level......imagine the catch up for $FSY, double the production capacity, trading at <15% of the valuation. #uranium
5 pre-production plays look to have > 5x upside when the market catches up on the move into production.
Jan 5 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
This model is what we utilize in a refined way....
A) near bottom of cycle
B) destroyed cap -97%
C) one or two scalable low cost PFS or DFS's in the draw
D) Cap < 2% of NPVs
E) at least one project moves into production over the coming upcycle
The entry price paid is often below an explorer with $50m spend on the projects to date, trading at < $10m with partial resource NPVs > $500m, full resource NPVs > $2bn.....
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