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Cycle Bottom Profile picture
Cycle Bottom
@BULLReturns
Retiring Investment Manager sharing their 10x10x10=1000 methodology
7 subscribers
Nov 11 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
As our followers will recall, we used $GBTC at its 50% disc near cycle lows to achieve our #bitcoin exposure, our scale down for this cycle commences at $84k through $135k over the next 12 months. This will equate to >10x returns from GBTC over a 3 yr holding period from 4Q 2022. The cycle continues to dictate our 10 bagger position, as it should do for our followers.
Nov 1 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Pre-production micro cap #Commodity stocks rules to adhere to:

A) drill program to scoping study

Dilution funding (up cycle): 30%
Elapsed Time: 18-24 months

B) SS to Pre-feasibility

Dilution: 60%
Elapsed: 18-24m

C) Pre-feasibility to DFS/BFS

Dilution: 80%
Elapsed: 12-18m D) DFS to production (compelling project)

Dilution (cumulative) 90% plus
Elapsed Time: 30-48 months

Total elapsed: 76 to 114 months

For a downcycle one can double the dilution.
Oct 17 • 9 tweets • 3 min read
Without regards for the cycle, 10 baggers are mythical beasts.... With regards to the cycle they are 30% probabilities 🎯 with the following characteristics..

A) down > 95% from the previous cycle peak
B) trading < 3% NPV near cycle lows
C) implied 3-4yrs out trading on <0.4x CF Active example there will be over 20 10 baggers from the #lithium space from recent cycle lows through the 2027 cycle peak.

Note the amount of 10 baggers from 2020 lows through 2021/22 highs compared with 2022 highs through 2024 lows.

The #cycle is everything
Sep 29 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
Top positions for us are ones near exiting as they have performed so well, where new top positions come in at 2% and can move to 15% by outperformance. Old asymmetric themes have performed and are on the chopping block, this is how to play cyclicals. Cyclicals trading > 8x 2027 peak CF are an exit, those trading <0.3x are an entry.... Knowing the difference is the art work.
Sep 28 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Feasibility studies are conducted by profession enterprises with much experience, the AISC is an equalizer on the value of a #uranium pound, as is the project IRR, to say otherwise indicates ones lack of comprehension

We prefer at surface low grade, with high mill feed grade.... It should be remembered:

High grade at depth can have many issues

ISR annual capex is opex and should be treated as such

Credits can be very important is net costs

1st Tier AISC project < $36 in 2025 will likely move to <$40 by 2028 and <$44 by 2031

#uranium
Aug 3 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
For our followers: Now that the sky has started it's fall and you have stocked up on dry powder as we have guided, the next step is to review watchlist entry points. It's key one moves to a Greed mode over the next 6 months as markets bottom, removal of Fearfulness. Some massive compelling cycle bottoms will occur in such industrial commodities such as #lithium

Look for...

> 95% declines from peak
Cap < 3% of NPV
Cap < 30% of Cash flow 3-4yrs out
IRRs > 40% on $25k pricing

= > 10x returns

Don't be surprised if 2020 lows are achieved.
Jul 16 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Playing $SOLG via $DGR at a 70% discount has paid off....

#gold +20% $SOLG = +200% $DGR
Jul 14 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
We note those calling for a material US market sell off in the next 3-6 months has increased substantially in recent weeks, what have we done 1H 2024 to cushion and provide multi options to take advance of this event:

A) We scaled back on >10 baggers trading on likely...

1/ .... non secure valuations. These include #bitcoin miners like $IREN, excessively valued #uranium stocks.

B) Dry powder is at 35%, & will go to over 50% on the current continued leg higher

C) Physical ETFs holding #gold #silver #bitcoin are included in dry powder

2/
Jun 21 • 6 tweets • 1 min read
For our followers: Its the final June tax loss selling next week for the ASX

A few tips to guide your actions
a) #lithium stocks making new lows with credible IRRs, cap < 4% NPV, cap < 0.4x CF 3-4yrs out, controlled dilution = >8x returns
b) $AAU 0.3c = US$4m cap post raise
1/2 #Antilles has tripped massively in 2Q, can it recover materially 2H +1x? $4m legal claim and equipment sales. Project NPVs still US$200m

c) $AEE at 10-13c #uranium, hit by option conversion selling, material raise with negative sentiment and now tax loss selling, 2H +1x?
Jun 20 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
#lithium on the cycle clock 0-5 minutes range:

Look for > 50% IRR projects round tripping to last cycle lows

Cap < 0.4x CF 3-4yrs out

= > 8x returns Bottoming process can take another 6 months, but compelling entry points to begin scale in are upon us.... remember 95% corrections with the above matrix look interesting for > 8x within 36 months.
Jun 12 • 6 tweets • 1 min read
Our Revised NPV fully diluted for Tiris based on todays expanded resource $AEE #Tiris #uranium Image Notes:

a) Further Expanded resource is highly discounted when using 10% beyond 16yr mine life.

b) High sensitivity to LT contracted prices

c) Excludes Swedish assets
Jun 12 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
$AEE every +10mlbs added to reserves at #tiris adds US$120m to the NPV = +150% of current cap. #Aura #uranium Image Using the full 91mlbs at 80% recoverable, $85 pricing, then our NPV per share comes out at $1.25 on 1.1bn fully diluted share base for #Tiris

We expect 91mlbs to double over 8-10 years given this new #uranium district.
Jun 8 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
Those monthly producers selling into the spot are having a material effect at the margin #uranium We cant rule out the spot moving below the LT price on this downleg #uranium
Jun 4 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Our "unexpected" #uranium producers can only achieve debt financing at $80-85 LT pricing likely being sustained for over 6 months $FSY $LAM $GXU $WUC $AEE

Average valuation upside +200% at $120 Spot sustained for 9 months

+300% at $140 Spot for 6 months If these projects lag, they will become takeover targets by those that have > 1bn cap valuations
May 6 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
What will be the average PE of your pre-production sub $200m #uranium caps in 2027? If you are saying < 3x .... best you get real with the dilution.... 50% assumption in the capex year, excluding the 15% annualized burn is likely.
Apr 28 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Hate allows unique fresh asymmetric themes to be uncovered on a continual basis. Positive Consensus is where mediocrity is located, hence we avoid it.... generally a scale down indicator
Apr 25 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
At what point do you vote with your feet to exit such a system.... 25% tax on unrealized capital gains, so one will be forced to realize to pay the taxes on > 10 bagger. Forced liquidations for tax bills could occur.... imagine Musk & Buffet tax bills which would require stock liquidations to pay.
Apr 16 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
12 minutes on the 1 hour cycle clock folks #Silver #Gold
2nd Quartile $2500-$2800 / $32-38

3rd Quartile $2800-$3100 / $38-44

4th Quartile > $3100 / > $44

Understanding the cycle is the 1st 🗝️
Apr 8 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
We have exited, leaving the remaining 50% return to the late arrivals. #uranium Without stating the dilution, this chart has very little meaning.
Apr 7 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
For our followers we guide them on how to increase their success rate to over 80% by following these simple rules on #repeatablecyclicality:

a) Deploying within 6 month of a cycle bottom

b) Scaling out within the last 50% of returns from a sector (post >5x returns)

1/2 c) Avoidance of critical errors causing material losses

d) We guide you on near cycle lows and scale down ranges for mature cycles

e) Indicating the bias' which reduce your success - FOMO, over crowded themes, recency extrapolating, over bought upcycle legs etc

2/2
Apr 4 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
$MCI top of the pops for 2 days running (200% in 2 days) Many of the micro #preciousmetal caps were left for road kill, hence the inflows ate 20-30x the previous 3 month volumes, driving this unique set up 3-4x within 3 months of the start of this bull market in February 2024. 3 ASX listed #gold Micro caps yet to depart and double (all are > 7x returners at 3000 spot sustained for 12 months), each has their respective catalysts:

$AAU 1.9c to 15c, 2Q news flow 1st mine PFS, offtake financing etc

$GPR 1.9c to 20c revised DFS and mine plan 3Q

1/2