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Retiring Investment Manager sharing their 10x10x10=1000 methodology
Rick Grimsley Profile picture joulmo Profile picture PDXCharlie Profile picture T D Profile picture Josef Leebmann Profile picture 7 subscribed
Feb 28 7 tweets 2 min read
$AEE #Tiris FEED study - note the NPV using $100 spot at Full Recoverable resource (post the new additional drilling program) is > A$1.5bn or $2 per share. Next steps Resource upgrade, Followed by Offtake and Financing over the next 6 months. #uranium Image The A$520m NPV (@$80) is based off < 50% of the 2024 incoming resource....

Hence 70c per share diluted will move to $1.40 or $2 if $100 LT #uranium pricing is used.
Feb 27 9 tweets 2 min read
Wow our #bitcoin miners are flying 8x returns over 14 months of holding time.

$60k = 9x

$65k = 10x

$135-175k = 15-18x

#repeatablecyclicality Note how running multiple asymmetric themes cushions the volatility in ones overall portfolio

#uranium -20%
#bitcoin and miners an average of +30%
Feb 26 4 tweets 1 min read
#RepeatableCyclicality requires an exit as well as a fresh asymmetric entry. The cycle dictates ones position, nothing else. How to avoid destruction in cyclicality investing:

a) Understanding the cycle is the 1st key to everything

b) Scaling in near cycle lows

c) Scaling out near near maturing cycles

d) Running multiple cyclical themes, with 5-7% exposure on entry provides balance & safety
Feb 25 4 tweets 1 min read
Remember those who said the ban wont be removed Vs those of us who said skate to where the puck is going, not where it has been #uranium $AEE $DMX Combine 2bn lbs resource at < $30 AlSC post credits = > $50bn of CF over 30yrs from 2029.
Feb 21 11 tweets 2 min read
#PreciousMetals masterclass incoming today.

85% probability that #gold then #silver with move higher in 2024

Selected micro caps will deliver >7x returns Step one: Timing the scale in

The Bottoming scale in process, ideally is a mix of the following:

a) >90% falls from peak
b) near the last capital prior to the spots breaking higher
c) cap < 5% of NPV
d) a good project matrix usual the > 50% irr at current spot, >100% at peak
Feb 18 6 tweets 1 min read
Our Investing Methodology in one post:
#RepeatableCyclicality
Scale in 0-7 minutes on the cycle clock
Scale out 50-60 minutes on the cycle clock
The return between >8x

Stick with the highly cyclical sectors & niches... history provides continuous repeats. Our Stock Selection process in one post:

>93% falls from peaks

Cap < 5% of NPVs 2-3yrs out

Project matrix >50% IRRs at mid cycle spot assumptions, >100% using peak spot assumptions.

Sentiment: hated, expectations extremely low

Spots trading below cost curves

4-5 per theme
Feb 3 4 tweets 1 min read
Another sign of later cycle #uranium is non-finance professionals talking about uranium stocks.... Encountered in Sydney this past weekend. Ofcourse it's not at the uber driver stage as yet, but our 47 minute reading on the 1 hour clock is pretty accurate, given these professional invested in #Lithium at a similar timeframe. #uranium
Feb 1 4 tweets 1 min read
Our initial > $1bn cap #uranium scale down is harvesting at 40x returns today, the 2nd scale down range maybe achieved at the ASX open...for 25x returns. These are both trading on 4-5x peak CF 2026/27....full exit through 8x.

Our sub US$200m pre-production caps are trading at 1.0-1.8x 2026/27 CF fully diluted

Our portfolio remaining upside is 180%, to complete 28x for the cycle.

#uranium
Jan 26 4 tweets 1 min read
The death of an Asymmetric Trade ...

Entry: risk:return -40% : +10-30x

Expiry: -70% : +100% (5-15x returns achieved, 40% of initial position sell down)

Full exit: -90% : +<30% (6.5-20x returns achieved)

#ScalingDown The birth of an Asymmetric Trade:

Borderline entry: Risk:Return -50% = Initial > 8x return

Entry: -40% : 10-30x

#ScalingIn

1H 2024
#lithium
#potash
#industrialmetals
#goldstocks
#CRE
#ChineseStocks
Jan 24 4 tweets 1 min read
The price one pays determines the return:

$7 = 2 bagger

$3.50 = 5 bagger

$1.75 = 10 bagger Our Art 🎨 is in locating > 8x returns, that's in non mainstream stock selection.
Jan 22 7 tweets 2 min read
We did sell as it's proven #repeatablecyclicality #lithium

>5x the cost curve translates into obscene super normal cashflows stimulating production in any #commodity Now we are in the accummulation zone based on the next 40% downside over 1H 2024. We are seeing 7x currently on a selection of pre-production plays, this will likely peak out at 14x near lows #lithium
Jan 8 4 tweets 1 min read
The Investment banking catch up as they eye the fee gravy train #uranium It's a joke having a buy on $BOE at this valuation level......imagine the catch up for $FSY, double the production capacity, trading at <15% of the valuation. #uranium

5 pre-production plays look to have > 5x upside when the market catches up on the move into production.
Jan 5 4 tweets 1 min read
This model is what we utilize in a refined way....

A) near bottom of cycle
B) destroyed cap -97%
C) one or two scalable low cost PFS or DFS's in the draw
D) Cap < 2% of NPVs
E) at least one project moves into production over the coming upcycle

$AEE 2.6c to $1-2.
#uranium The entry price paid is often below an explorer with $50m spend on the projects to date, trading at < $10m with partial resource NPVs > $500m, full resource NPVs > $2bn.....
Jan 4 4 tweets 1 min read
The 2nd largest $AEE with 2 Scoping Studies out now on their Haggan project #uranium

Note based on the 1st SS the current uranium cashflow in the ground at $80 long term pricing would be US$30bn. The 2nd SS is a less focused #uranium play, but likely exceeds the size of 80% of other projects, as based on 3% of the resource.

If there is a shortage of #uranium then #sweden can solve this problem within 8 yrs at 40mlbs of production, that's a 40yr potential mine life.
Dec 31, 2023 4 tweets 1 min read
.....now it's time to assess the incoming cycle bottom #lithium 1H 2024? We like the tight relatively quick up cycles in #lithium, generally > 8x returns within 3 years
Dec 28, 2023 4 tweets 1 min read
#bitcoinminers what a 12 month run 8-9x with another +50-100% in 2024 $IREN

#bitcoin This asymmetric theme bottomed in Dec 2022, at < 0.3x peak CF, with #bitcoin peaking this cycle at > $100k, implied returns were 15x.

The asymmetric themes expiry is within the next 30-50% rise, where the upside Vs downside are even.
Dec 26, 2023 4 tweets 1 min read
The best playbooks for 20 baggers are:

A) deeply destroyed sector, with 10yrs + time spent in the wilderness
B) the cycle implosive was so severe that research coverage is pretty much zero near the cycle bottom
C) reversion to mean a certainty as demand achieves new highs

1/2
D) the elapsed time has allowed 99.5% of investors to forget the sector and 97% of participants to change their business focus, consolidate or go bankrupt.

This is the easy buy and hold for reversion to mean, what sectors may achieve this in 2024/25?

2/2
Dec 14, 2023 4 tweets 1 min read
It's officially 4th quartile entry for this #uranium cycle now, our average return expectations from our portfolio is 3x, with a range of 75% to 5x on our current 8 positions.

Note: those saying it's early cycle, have no idea of cycles and accelerating risk. Know your cycle better than your cyclical stocks
Dec 14, 2023 4 tweets 1 min read
Hottest incoming fresh asymmetric theme is #preciousmetal stocks....the last 3 months of accummulation should see us through 5-10x returns over 24 months.

Perspective: likely more than double #uranium returns from here

#repeatablecyclicality Never be married to a single cyclical theme, they all have their exit requirement.

#uranium has now achieved entry into the 4th quartile of it's cycle

#bitcoin #crypto are in the 2nd quartile of there cycle: 65k 3rd quartile, >95k 4th quartile
Dec 6, 2023 4 tweets 1 min read
The thought over a lifetime: The accummulation of knowledge by reading is the key to return compounding, our average of 6hrs day is a great competitive advantage. For those who select a stock to invest in?
- understand the cycle 1st
- review 20 of it's sector peers to ensure the attributes and valuation are better than the average
- less questions on X and more reading
Nov 20, 2023 4 tweets 1 min read
$PEN best time to buy is cap raise price ex-day for 50% returns within 3 months......how much has the company raised from 2020? > $100m Vs < $100m cap.... An amazing story of uncontrollably dilution, mgmt Vs shareholder considerations.... Alignment of interests are key. This is why low ownership by mgmt (Vs salary) and outrageous dilution often go hand in hand. Shareholders need to take action early to prevent destruction.