Thread by @MassDara

A quick thread on the wartime pettiness of Russia’s senior military leadership – Defense Minister Shoygu, and possibly CGS Gerasimov. As I noted before, they continue to find the time for petty personnel squabbles amid catastrophic losses for their military. /1

A bit of background and then a few examples. Shoygu and Putin are friends. They go on vacations to Siberia and hunt, fish, grill. At least once Bortnikov (FSB) came too. Shoygu is loyal and knows the rules. A highly valued characteristic in a system like this. /2

As DefMin for 10 years, Shoygu ensured money flowed to the military, and I suspect, largely left war planning and operational matters for the first invasion of Ukraine in 2014 and Syria in 2015 to the General Staff. /3

However, for “Operation Z”, he and Gerasimov agreed to (or did not refuse) execute a flawed war plan largely cooked up in secret and with heavy Kremlin and intel service interference. /4 washingtonpost.com/world/interact…

Shoygu is said to hold grudges, has a high opinion of himself, understands PR, and is an experienced bureaucratic operator, since he’s been in Moscow for decades. He has a finely honed preservation instinct. /5

Prewar, Gerasimov did not present publicly as a petty or vindictive person, nor is he a political actor. That being said, his public persona is nondescript and he could be different behind the scenes. I suspect he is now changed, given the trajectory of their operation. /6

One year in, nearly all operational commanders have been relieved, moved to Syria, or possibly retired. From military district commanders on down the line. Gerasimov and Shoygu who bear responsibility the most of all are spared, for larger political reasons /7

Petty incident #1: remember back in October when Surovikin was made to give public speeches and then this bizarre video explaining the withdrawal from Kherson and asking permission to proceed in an orchestrated way? Very suspicious because…

..no other commander before or after Surovikin has had to make such a public case for big operational decisions. In that vein, was this done to lay responsibility on Surovikin, in case it went poorly? But the retreat didn’t go poorly… /9

…and VDV units that were relocated from Kherson are now fighting along the front line. Surovikin was not blamed and remained in command. If this video was an attempt to discredit or embarrass him by Shoygu/Gerasimov, i don't think it worked. /10

2: In December, I thought the MOD telegram account was being shady by not featuring Surovikin’s award from Putin more prominently, and generally not really talking about him. and turns out it was... /11.

..within a few weeks, he was subordinated to Gerasimov. Because to the Kremlin, a poorly designed offensive was preferable to a defensive stance. Gerasimov ordered the force to go on an offensive that they clearly were not prepared for. /12

3. December, Shoygu complained about his predecessor, Serdyukov, removing too many repair and maintenance facilities from 2008-2012. Shoygu has been the job for 10 years surely he could have fixed this before the war. telegra.ph/Tezisy-vystupl…

This is not the first time either: in 2019 a Russian journalist, Ilya Kramnik, was dismissed from his job at Izvestiya after being critical of Shoygu’s self-aggrandizing interview in MK. Shoygu credited himself for reforms that his predecessors executed svoboda.org/a/30182745.html

4. Shoygu also likes to look like he goes to the front , as was claimed in this video. It was geolocated that he was near the Crimean border, 80KM from the front at the time.

6.Jan-March After Prigozhin lobbed multiple personal insults at Shoygu, his family, and Gerasimov, MOD brass has worked to undercut Prigozhin. Denying him recruiting privileges from prisons, and Prigozhin accuses them of deliberately cutting off ammo and artillery for Bakhmut.

7. This week: Prigozhin claims that his representative to the operational HQ (likely a ref to Rostov) had his building pass cancelled and couldn’t get in the building. reuters.com/world/europe/r…

Gerasimov is in Rostov running the operation. It is highly likely that he or Shoygu made this petty call to yank a badge. The Russian military is facing losses of the hundreds per day, its offensives at Vuhledar were a debacle of repeatedly driving into minefields, yet somehow…

…Gerasimov or Shoygu found the time to tell someone to pull building access for a Wagner rep’s badge. Of all the reasons to waste a bunch of staff officers' time at a moment like this.

there are probably more examples. I don't think this petty squabbling puts Shoygu at any risk from Putin. Gerasimov doesn't come off great either for more reasons than I can list. What a mess. Fish rots from the head. /end

I am hearing mixed things lately about ammo supply and other support to them, so not sure about that claim, but… blocking phone calls and pulling more badge passes? Seems like a other entry for the pettiness thread.

Another Shoygu pettiness entry - finding time to giving medals to those pilots. Meanwhile their offensive has been stalling in Donbas. This will probably play well at home though, since they want to distract from lack of progress. nytimes.com/live/2023/03/1…

Another one…

And another…Shoygu waits until the week of the counteroffensive to announce that all PMCs must conclude contracts with the military. Naturally, he does not offer a prominent position to Prigozhin, who takes this news very poorly… rferl.org/amp/russia-pri…

Going to park this in the pettiness thread, for the choice to only show the VKS, when its commander is still missing /detained