1/Yesterday I tweeted on the Tyranny of Distance across the Pacific, comparing 1942 to 2023.
Today, what would happen should China decide to invade Taiwan?
This will look at the logistics of sustaining the @USNavy with fuel.
2/On March 6, 2023, the US had two Carrier Strike (CSG) and two Amphibious Ready Groups (ARG) stationed in the western Pacific. Another carrier was in the Med and two off the East Coast; and others in various state of repair/training.
3/To support them, @USPacificFleet has 7 Kaiser class oilers:
In West Pac: Guadalupe, Ericsson, Rappahannock, Tippecanoe & Yukon
On West Coast: Kaiser & Pecos
@GDNASSCO the new John Lewis is working up, with Milk to follow.
4/Should the US find itself in a peer-to-peer w/China, the 2 CSG & 2 ARG would need an oiler to support them. Each oiler can carry between 150-180k bbls of fuel. Once they run dry, they will need to replenish from fuel supply in Korea, Japan, Guam or Hawaii. This poses issues.
5/1⃣ @MSCSealift oilers are manned by merchant mariners & unarmed. They lack even point defense weapons, meaning that they will require an escort, potentially pulling a Burke from the groups or relying on an LCS or allied warship.
defensenews.com/naval/2018/10/…
6/2⃣ If Japan/Korea are not involved, oilers will have to refuel at Guam, Hawaii or West Coast. The closing of Red Hill makes this problematic as the bulk of @DeptofDefense fuel reserves are now disappearing in the central Pacific increasing distance.
7/3⃣ In the past, shuttle tankers conducting Consolidation Operations (CONSOL) were used.
In 1949, MSTS (precursor to @MSCSealift) had 57 tankers. In 1990, MSC had 25. Today, 5 of which 2 are intra-theater.
msc.usff.navy.mil/Ships/Dry-Carg…
8/CONSOL capability atrophied after the Cold War.
@MSCSealift had several tankers fitted with Modular Fuel Distribution Systems prior, but they were phased out and the concept was only restarted in 2015.
ndtahq.com/navy-develops-…
9/4⃣ The new Tanker Security Program hopes to add btwn 10-20 tankers to US merchant marine through a subsidy similar to the Maritime Security Program for container, roll-on/roll-off & heavy lift ships.
The issue is finding employment for these tankers?
maritime.dot.gov/national-secur…
10/This means that the five forward deployed oilers will only have two others on the West Coast and what commercial tankers can be diverted from commercial trade, unless on contract to @MSCSealift; until reinforcements potentially arrive from PG, Med & Atlantic.
11/In WW2, the US started with 6 fast & 7 smaller/slower oilers in @USPacificFleet to sustain 4 fast carrier task forces & the sea lines of communications to Australia.
Neches AO-5 was lost to a sub sailing unescorted & Neosho AO-22 to air attack
A loss of 18% US oilers.
12/The Asiatic Fleet with three oilers lost one (33%).
US Navy oilers were insufficient to maintain fuel at Pearl Harbor, Australia & the SLOC btwn them; along with the fast TFs.
The US merchant marine provided 21 commercial tankers in January 1942 & 4 more in June.
13/Fast forward to today.
How does the limited number of unarmed oilers of @MSCSealift, with @USNavy lacking sufficient escort vessels, plan to sustain an initial four task groups in a potentially contested western Pacific; with a diminished US merchant marine?
14/Studies, like @CSBAdc, identify the issue and provide some solutions.
But the underlying issue is that the US shifted into a model without commercial shuttle tankers; civilianized & disarmed their oilers; & cut their shore side capabilities.
We have a refueling problem!
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