Alastair Thompson Profile picture
Climate, Conflict, Politics, Africa. Editor (NZ) Reporting from France. #nzpol #DesertRain

Mar 9, 2023, 13 tweets

Freddy remains a massive storm taking up nearly the entire Mozambique Channel - outer bands are already over the African coast.

The latest forecast predictions contain a range of possibilities & the latest ensemble mean model forecast is very bad in terms of additional flooding……

The last two days of development. 7-8 March.

And 8-9 March. Freddy is strengthening rapidly on approach to the mainland - and remains embedded within and fueled by an AR coming in from the North East.

This image measures the size of the wind and convection fields associated with the strengthening #CycloneFreddy last night.

Night has now fallen over the Mozambique channel and the satellite presentation is again very interesting.

#CycloneFreddy before sunset this evening and after.

The GFS 3hr model 16 day model simulation shows Freddy leaving, but two more systems replacing it to the north of Madagascar.

PWAT model shows a mass of PWAT moving in from the West and organising itself.

and the 500 hpa winds shows that organisation producing vortices at 5000m +

Looking at the entire South Indian Ocean view we can see in clearer detail the exit of Freddy after heading inland over Mozambique again and then back out over the Mozambique channel. Freddy's assisting AR from the NE is very obvious.

Whilst the forecast path of #Freddy in this……

This second part of the animation shows the forecast decay of #Freddy post exit and the formation of the two cyclones north of Madagascar - one of which makes landfall in Mozambique soon after formation.

Here we can see the situation at the postulated model time of the disturbances which become these two storms on 22 March & the corresponding PWAT and IWVT plots. The dominant feature is the intense high pressure system which spans the entire south Indian ocean.

The most intense period of the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season (which started very quietly) occurred in the post equinox period. Fiona, Ian and Julia. We are now seeing a similar pattern now in the South East Indian Ocean - a repeat of early 2022 record Madagascar cyclone season.

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