Tucker Carlson does a classic strawman argument in a recent broadcast: equating aid to UKR with a war with Russia. Then claiming people don't want a war with Russian. This is the disingenuous reasoning at best/1 #TuckerCalrson @TuckerCalrson
foxnews.com/video/63226408…
The premise is that endless aid to UKR will force us to war with Russia. How this is suppose to happen is left unsaid: a big clue that it is bravo sierra. His whole premise is that US forces would fire at Russian forces and start a war./2
One assumption he makes is that the US will do a "blank check:" to UKR and that - unstated- this will mean we will have to step in ourselves. Both are inaccurate to say the least./3
The US has not committed to a blank check: a $120 billion authorization over seven years. Not the trillions that aid opponents always alleged. That is being keyed to specific needs of Ukraine coordinated with all NATO allies. Not "open-ended" and nor a "blank check."/4
No actual money wo conditions & controls is given to Ukraine. A part of the $15 B in humanitarian and govt asst went for emergency pension payments to keep the country going. US has not assumed the obligation of paying Ukraine pensions. More misleading. /5
factcheck.org/2023/02/bidens…
Most aid (about 70%) is eqpt & ammo in storage donated. The price is figured by the replacement and UPGRADE costs (spent in the US over several years). All weapons are tracked within UKR down to end-users./6
So: no "blank check" and no "open-ended" commitment. How about shooting at Russians? Well, NATO & US preclude use of their weapons against targets in Russia. Over-cautious in the opinion for most mil experts. But that has been an iron clad rule./7
taskandpurpose.com/news/us-ukrain…
Or if the Ukrainians can only shot Russians illegally in Ukraine. How does this end up with the US attacking Russia itself? The unspoken assumption is that Ukraine will lose & this will be required. That is the biggest lie of the whole Carlson schtick. /8
UKR is winning the war and there is no need for Americans or any NATO country to send or use its own forces against Russia. No one but a fake translation of a Zelensky speech by Kremlin creeps has allege this needs to happen./9
apnews.com/article/fact-c…
Multiple sources affirm that UKR is winning, that Russians cannot keep up the war, that new UKR formations armed with modern NATO vehicles will sweep the map, and that Putin cannot wage an "endless war."/10
breakingdefense.com/2022/05/russia…
One top mil expert (for example) has been right from the start (unlike some talking heads on FOX) has consistently stated UKR will win and that /Russia is incapable of taking UKR if it is supported by NATO arms./11
General Keane (ret) also expressed this, pointing out that the initial Russian force available to Putin was & remains inadequate on its face to take UKR, and that UKR with latest heavy weapons cannot be stopped by Russia:/12
Experts generally agree that with planned NATO support (incl EU efforts that match or exceed US support (like 1 million 115mm shells this week), Russia has already lost./13
defenseone.com/policy/2023/02…
Facts:/14
The "big Russian offense" based on a mobilization of raw conscripts & older versions of Russian weapons has flopped with no major gains. As predicted:/15
There is no possible scenario right now where US forces will need to start shooting at Russians. So why would Tucker Carlson lie about this prospect? Why not even make an effort to defend it with facts?/16
Ironically, the assumption that US shooting at Russians would start a general war is also very debatable. Trump did exactly that in Syria vs the Wagner Group. Wagner will annihilated and NADA./17
coffeeordie.com/wagner-group-s…
Why did that end that way? Deterrence. Russian gains nothing by escalation where that will mean more loss to Russians than possible gains. It has worked since 1945./18
But backing down in UKR (Carlson's plan) would actually increase the risk of Russians and Chinese making aggressive moves that would end up causing just the confrontation Carlson says should be avoided. Because it will weaken deterrence./19
theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/…
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