There are two Russian armies fighting in their invasion of Ukraine. There is the "second army" of the world with massive numbers of tanks and artillery pieces and soldiers that march with precision on Red Square and look like recruiting posters. This army is supported by a massive industrial base making "near peer" equipment at elevated rates.
Then there is another Russian army invading Ukraine. This one has lost 90% of its professional soldiers ("lifers" in US jargon). It is now filled with soldiers with 30 days or less training. Its officer corps depleted to a frction of the pre-war level. Never well-trained in manuever war or combined arms, this army uses clumsy tactics with little or no situational awareness. Vehicle drivers run over their own troops or into their own minefields. This army's generals order small unit attacks over and over again on the same avenues of approach that were dominated by the enemy the day before.
This second Russian army has blown through a massive amount of its first-line equipment. Older T62s from decades ago are seen in its formations and loss columns, because the first line T80/T72 modern versions are becoming scarce. This army's air defesne has proven far less capable than its published specifcations and has been pciked apart by droens and anti-radiation missiles. Self-propelled artillery seen in vast numbers on paper before the invasion are now repalced with ancvient D30 towed guins, vulnerable to counter-battery fire and drones.
The second army is the real one. The first army is the myth that Putin may still nourish, but - more importantly- the delusion that drives Western media to claim the war is a "stalemate" or that Russia can fight a long-war as it grows "stronger" deploying non-existent modern equipment and trained troops. The first zdrmy only appears in RedSquare films. The second one shows up in daily clips from the battlefield. THese clips seldom reported or published in Westgern popular media.
The same media - ignorant of the battlefield reality- dutifully reports the lines on the map and concludes there is a stalemate. It feeds a narrative that more "resistance is futile" (Russians are the Borg).
The scenario for the first army described is that Russia will never give up its occupied territories without a fight to the bitter end. The second army has lost effective control of Sevastapol and is losing its land bridge to Crimea due to long-range artillery fire and partisan warfare. In this real world scenario, Russia has lost much of its basic war objectives and is relying entirely on a political effort to break Western will to supply Ukraine.
The Russian losses, verified by third-parties, in the real world are staggering and accelrating. These have consumed the best Russian equipment and their best troops.
The comments below have links to multiple sources and information describing this "second Russian army" - the real one. It is clear that Russia's only hope is to break Western will, which cannot be allowed to happen. Ukraine does not need a piece of paper that crates "peace" (they alreayd got one of those in Budapest). Ukraine just needs ammo, as Presdient Zellensky famously said. #RussiaLosingBadly
#UkraineMustWin

https://x.com/randymot4/status/1702234126844142070?s=20

Why are Republicans holding out for border securty before agreeing to fund Ukraine? This post will not try to justify that position, but will explain it.
1. GOP members of Congress have voted by wide margins for Ukraine aid in all "stand alone" votes.
thehill.com/policy/defense… 2. Republican chairmen and ranking members of the key committees have urged faster and more effective aid as well as a clear policy goal of Ukraine winning.
foxnews.com/politics/inter…

Russian in Losing Badly Part 3
This is an update on all of the evience that Russian is losing badly right now.
Frantic efforts to try to get a ceasefire. The Russians are pushing for it, not Ukraine. /1
x.com/EmekaGift100/s…
Major advances pose breakthrough opportunity in the south. Russia loses operational effectiveness of Sevastapol. Russian artillery takes a poounding and is keeps getting worse./2
x.com/Tendar/status/…

The DESCENT of Heritage Foundation To Become Russian Propaganda

Founded in the Reagan era, Heritage Foundation has been a major voice for his foreign policy and defense principles. This continued in the Ukraine war, until it changed dramatically./1 “Timidity, fear, & hesitancy incentivize aggression and worsen the consequences of war……half measures and tepid, delayed assistance lengthen the duration of conflict, increase the amount of destruction, add to suffering, & make war harder to end.” HF website, March 15, 2023./2

How the Heritage Foundation became a pro-Russian force.

You may have seen their TV ad that supports cutting off US aid to Ukraine, a major objective of Putin and the only possible way Russia can even get a "draw" out of the war. So let's start with how phony the ad is./1 The aid starts the full 7 yr authorization figure for Ukraine to create a big number that is makes absurd comparisons to Hawaii initital FEMA aid. The annual number is small & declining each yr. It is mostly spent in US, creating jobs to replace & update the donated eqpt./2

Colonel Douglas MacGregor: spreading lies on social media for people too lazy or biased to check.
He appears everywhere especially since his Tucker Carlson appearance. Everyone should know some facts before they get too excited about what he says./1
@DouglasMacGregor His casualty numbers come straight from the Kremlin. They have been debunked by all NATO intelligence services. If his numbers were accurate, Ukrainians would not be so dedicated to continue fighting./2

Russia is Losing Badly Part 2
Once again let's look at reliable information that Ukraine is winning. Russian losses have now significantly affected their combat effectiveness. Without an artillery advantge, depleted low-morale units are trying to plug holes in the line. Russia's defense of Crimea will come down the last important campaign. One critical part will be decided by whether Russia's air defense will hold up. That looks unlikely, since Ukraoine just took out the most modern Russian system, the S400:/1

https://twitter.com/Antonio_Argo_KZ/status/1694295696059384155?s=20

RUSSIA IS LOSING BADLY
This thread will set out all of the indications that the Russians are now losing badly. This is not based on opinions, but tangible evidence that can be verified from open sources./1
@threadreaderapp unroll Heavy Russian tank losses have been reported and verified by third-parties. These figures can be verified by the Russians being forced to bring in older and far less effective tanks. First it was T62s (designed in the 1950s)./2
thedrive.com/the-war-zone/r…

What Some Republicans Get Wrong on Ukraine
The list of things that fringe Republicans believe on Ukraine that are totally wrong. Some are so convinced of their opinion that they often refuse to listen to any facts at all./1
@threadreaderapp unroll That NATO provoked the Russian invasion: the Kremlin line which makes ZERO sense. Putin gambled that NATO would not respond and counted on Germany and France to keep NATO out of the war. Just as they had blocked Ukraine getting into NATO. FACTS:/2
iir.cz/lies-provocati…

@DeSantisPrez @DeSantisWarRoom @RonDeSantis
@ChristinaPushaw

Time to clarify Governor DeSamntis views on Ukraine war. We want to support you, but do not want to abandon Ukraine to Russia. This thread lays out the facts compared to your comments to date:/1 This matters to 71 percent of Republicans that support aid to Ukraine. The cutesy answers that do not address the real facts are not enough./2
reuters.com/world/europe/t…

MINEFIELDS: #RussianMinefields
Much has been written about the Russian extensive minefields in Ukraine, i.e. ten million mines. A very real obstacle to rapid advances. But some important considerations suggest that these barriers will be increasingly less effective.
(1) Minefields are only effective if they are covered by indirect fire and local direct fire. We have already seen cases where Ukrainians approached minefields/tank ditches without coming under indirect fire. The Russians are losing their artillery and ammo at high rates;
(2) As Ukrainians clear the initial line of defense (as they have a few places), they can observe Russian retreats across the next belt of mines, flagging the unmined routes. Drone and satellite observation also provides a plot of where the unmined routes are within the defenses for Russian themselves to move in troops or supplies.
(3) Multisensor drones and even satellite sensor observation can detect individual mines . These images are be plotted and cross-referenced to Russian troop movements or UA ground reconnaisance. The current abliity of Ukrainian drones to operate over the frontline and below makes this more feasible every day.

Below: a thermal image of a minefield in UJkraine.

https://twitter.com/randymot4/status/1691047181610778624?s=20

#NotOurWar ? We hear that on social media and maybe from a few colleagues, but do they ever offer any explanation? Nope! They just assume that if they do not understand it, then there must be no explanation. This is wrong at many levels. The map of Europe with Russia occupying Ukraine might start to explain some things. Ukr is 2nd largest country in Europe w/ big resources. But it is also a way to put pressure of a whole new set of negihbors./2

US AID TO UKRAINE: THE FACTS
This thread updates earlier information and answers the criticism of aid, which is uniformly based on bad or no information. Please bookmark and share./1
@threadreaderapp unroll A common argument is that this is too much money and is needed at home. This is based on very inaccurate assumptions about the amount of aid: it is $39 B a year max and is about 5-6% of the DOD annual budget. It also phases out./2

A preview of the Ukraine offensive. Roughly comparable equipment and training disparity.

UKRAINE COUNTER-OFFENSIVE: everyone is speculating on when it will start and why it has not already. First, it is great that everyone is guessing when and where, so are the Russians./1 Obviously a couple of factors play into the decision: the soundness of the ground for cross-country movement possibly being the biggest. Any effectiv e offensive cannot be limited to roads./2

Let's do a list of fringe Republican schizophrenia:
1. They were upset over a Chinese balloon;
2. They were totally enraged about leaving Afghanistan in disgrace (think about losing UKR);
3. They were silent when Trump took direct US mil action against Russians troops in Syria; 4. They boast that UKR would not have been invaded if Trump were in office (acknowledging that it was important to keep Russia out of UKR);
5. They criticized Europe for not funding more on defense (which is happening now - so why was it important, remind us?);

The US cannot unplug from the world as some on the fringes suggest. Total trade outside of the US is 25% of our GDP. Exports are 10%. Those numbers depend on a relatively stable world where the US has the influence to avoid boycotts & resist economic warfare./1 Without foreign trade, we would see much higher prices on many things and without exports whole sectors of the economy would go into deprfession./2
tradingeconomics.com/united-states/…

UKRAINE VICTORY: 1/22
Much of the opposition to US aid to Ukraine stems from the notion that this will be an "endless war." This is a mistaken notion caught up in the current state of the front, but at odds will the experts view of the rest of the year./1 Russia sent in its professional army in February and March 2022. They got bogged down and mauled. Putin had previously moved from conscription to professionla military to try to improve its performance. This did not achieve its objective by any measure./2
sofrep.com/news/these-are…

Tucker Carlson does a classic strawman argument in a recent broadcast: equating aid to UKR with a war with Russia. Then claiming people don't want a war with Russian. This is the disingenuous reasoning at best/1 #TuckerCalrson @TuckerCalrson
foxnews.com/video/63226408… The premise is that endless aid to UKR will force us to war with Russia. How this is suppose to happen is left unsaid: a big clue that it is bravo sierra. His whole premise is that US forces would fire at Russian forces and start a war./2

Why do pro-Russian people talk about Minsk Agreement: this was a ceasefire proposal and then a conflict resolution plan worked out by Europeans. Russia violated it from the beginning:/1
reuters.com/world/europe/w… "The main impediment to a peace settlement in Donbas is, in fact, Russia and its proxies’ deliberate unwillingness to implement the Minsk agreements. Moreover, Moscow illegally provides weapons to the separatists. This is a well-known fact."/2
euvsdisinfo.eu/report/ukraine…

Republicans are divided 40/40/20 on UKR aid. Trump has a lock right now on the anti-UKR aid voters. Although a majority of the party also oppose his candidacy. Start with those facts./1
reuters.com/world/us/repub… Right now (before DeSantis' UKR comments), it was a two-man race, with polls sharply divided. DeSantis as a new figure on the natl stage could be "all things to all people" as is normal early in campaigns. He has been the "non-Trump" candidate./2