Leaked #PentagonFiles Expose US Spying
Highly classified docs give significant insight into US spying on allies as well as new revelations on the Ukraine war
There are reports of 100s of leaked documents, setting the stage to significantly more damaging findings
(LIVE thread)
The leaked documents were published by username Luca on Discord.
He claims to have found it on another discord server before he leaked onto Telegram, followed by other social media platforms, before it was picked up by the NYT.
No one knows the original source of the files. /2
Leak #1: Depleted Air Defense
Ukraine’s medium to high range air defense is almost depleted.
SA-10 and SA-11 make up 89% of Ukrainian air defense.
SA-11 were depleted on 31 March 2023 and SA-10 will run out on 02 May 2023. /3
There are limited quantities of much-needed advanced defense systems in Ukraine
The Russians have a greater volume of these systems and Ukraine is unable to match their supply. /4
Ukraine has limited to no air-to air defense (A2AD).
This means there is a major need for the replenishment of these defense systems.
Since there's been serious issues with the supply of ammunition, things are looking bleak. /5
Leak #2: Military casualties
The leaked documents show Ukraine losing 4x more soldiers than Russia, contradicting most Western reports.
Some people argue this specific data was doctored before the leak, and in reality the Russian and Ukrainian losses are estimated at 2:1. /6
Leak #3: Front Line Donetsk
The document provides information about the size of the armies at the front lines in Donetsk.
Russia has 91 battalions with around 23,000 total personnel.
Ukraine has 8 brigades and 40 battalions, with 10,000 to 20,000 total personnel. /7
Leak #4: Israel’s Support to Ukraine
Israel has not overtly supported Ukraine, but the US devised 4 pathways that can induce Israel to send offensive weapons.
Israel is in a tricky position, wanting to please their US ally while not harming relations with Russia. /8
The 4 scenarios which can cause Israel to send weapons:
1. Similar to Turkey, Israel can SELL Ukraine defense systems, or provide it through 3rd parties.
2. Russia upsets Israel by transferring strategic systems or expands assistance to Iran’s missile/nuclear/space programs. /9
3. Russia continues to allow Iran access to advanced conventional weapons through Syria, forcing Israel to respond by further supporting Ukraine.
4. Russia incurs casualties from Israeli strikes in Syria, and then targets Israeli aircrafts, forcing Israel to support Ukraine /10
Leak #5: US Spies On Allies
Leaks also show the US was spying on France, Israel and South Korea, leading to renewed worries about US intelligence operations.
This surveillance showed South Korea were concerned that ammunition they supplied to the US would end up in Ukraine. /11
The leaked documents also show the US has been spying on Zelensky.
Sources close to Zelensky described the situation as "unsurprising," but Ukrainian officials are said to be frustrated about the leak. /12
Leak #6: Mossad & Israeli protests
The leaks also indicate that Mossad, Israel’s intelligence agency, may have had a role in the protests in Israel, advocating for people to protest the proposed judicial reforms.
Mossad is not meant to wade into domestic political matters. /13
Leak #7: US infiltrating Wagner
The leaked documents show the US was heavily penetrating Russian military planning, including the internal plans of the Wagner mercenary group.
This may now cause suspicion in the Wagner group about whether there is a spy amongst their ranks. /14
Leak #8: 2014 War
The leaks show that Russia was providing weapons, training, and strategic guidance to separatists in Ukraine in 2014
It also shows that Ukraine knew about Russia's involvement but chose to downplay it for fear of provoking a larger war with their neighbor. /15
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