How the Great Belgorod Raid started vs. how it went
A little post-facto analysis below:
This morning the Ukrainian military (under the fig leaf of being a pro-Ukrainian Russian separatist group) attacked a Russian border checkpoint and a couple of border villages, penetrating about three kilometers into Russia proper before being driven back with losses.
Russian aircraft quickly arrived on station, at which point the Ukrainian vehicle crews seem to have retreated back into Ukraine and abandoned the infantry to their fate.
Shown: a two-ship of Su-25s delivering airstrikes.
Attack helicopters also joined the fray.
Elements of at least two and possibly three Russian battalions in the area also piled on, showing at least one triangle-Z tactical marking I've never seen in the wild.
(there's another video out there with a BMP-3, presumably a different unit)
Most fighting was over in about six hours. The Russians claim they killed at least 40 attackers, which is hardly implausible given the raid's lack of support and the prompt and overwhelming Russian response.
Last I heard they were still sweeping the area.
So - an objectively stupid border raid designed to grab the headlines back after Bakhmut fell last weekend?
I don't think so. I think this little operation had larger ambitions - namely, to seize Russian territory for leverage.
(excerpt from the Washington Post)
The area chosen was a particularly vulnerable part of Belgorod Oblast, surrounded by water obstacles and Ukrainian territory. The kind of thing that could be taken in a coup de main.
(credit for this insight to... sigh... OSINTtechnical)
Similarly there was a heavy info-war campaign earlier pushing the "Bilhorod People's Republic," presumably some kind of Ukrainian-backed cutout on Russian territory in an ironic echo of the Lugansk and Donetsk Peoples' Republics.
(do they speak Ukrainian in "Bilhorod?")
The obvious question is why on Earth they'd think they could successfully conquer and hold part of Russia with one motorized company.
Well, UK MinDef Ben Wallace told us the answer earlier. NATO thinks the vast majority of the Russian Army is in Ukraine.
(credit BBC)
This would presumably leave the Russian border regions extremely vulnerable to attack and seizure even by small forces.
As we found out today, that's absolutely not the case. They're crawling with troops. A third and critical data point for analysis later.
As a sort of mythbusting addendum, no, the Ukrainians didn't launch this raid to capture a Russian electronic warfare system.
The rumor mill was going faster than a Kinzhal this morning. Be wary of misinformation!
(misc. photo credit to Starshe Eddy)
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