Thread by @davidhelms570

#NAFOWeather 🧵
1/ Weather week in review (23-29 May 2023): Widespread thunderstorms provided significant rain near the Line of Conflict (LoC), with a range of 15-90 mm in the south and 30-100 mm in the east and north.

2/ Rainfall from thunderstorms was not uniform with some locations close to the LoC receiving weekly peak total rainfall 80-105 mm including Oleshky, Vuhledar, Bakhmut and Raihorodka.

3/ Daily peak rainfall totals from thunderstorms max'ed out at 30-60 mm per day causing local flooding as reported by social media validating satellite precipitation accumulation analysis.

4/ Impact on soil moisture and trafficability from 7 days of rainfall has been substantial with daily soil moisture analysis (updated through May 27th) returning to peak soil moisture levels observed back on May 1st.

5/ Unfortunately, thunderstorms and rain showers are predicted to continue through 31 May 2023 likely providing additional rainfall of 5-35 mm in the south and 25-45mm in the east and north.

6/ Predicted impact from recent and predicted rainfall upon trafficability is "no go" conditions for the LoC through this week with drying conditions helping to dry soil after 3 JUN. Next week, conditions will likely improve faster in the south than in the east and north.

7/ Week 3-4 C3S long range forecast (15-22 June 2023) has south and east Ukraine with higher chance of rain than normal. Additional significant rain in early and mid June will necessarily keep trafficability degraded. /end

.@threadreaderapp unroll