Thread by @davidhelms570

1/ Its been 2 weeks since the Russians destroyed the #KakhovkaHPP dam. What will the Dnipro River look like when it returns to its pre-reservoir (before 1955) position? Where are the possible crossing locations? How might UAF exploit these crossing opportunities? A #NAFOWeather🧵

3/ The receding Dnipro RIver has revealed once submerged RF defenses including mines placed along the over 200 km of #KakhovkaReservoir left bank coastline.

4/ During WW2, the German Nazi and Red Army forces built several temporary bridges across the Dnipro River between Kakhovka and Zaporizhzhia to establish and defend bridgeheads.
Battle for the Ore Deposits: The Red Army vs. Nazi Germany
https://t.co/uVR5XRz6qtwarfarehistorynetwork.com/article/battle…

5/ 1940's maps of the area between Zaporizhzhia and Kakhovka show several pre-Kakhovka dam Dnipro River crossings and roads which may provide UAF bridgehead opportunities which are described in the next several tweets.
en.defence-ua.com/news/1943_maps…

6/ Upper Kakhovka Reservoir Basin: Bilen'ke-Vasylivka River Crossing, the longest 1940s era river road in the Kakhovka Reservoir Basin (>20 km).

7/ Upper Kakhovka Reservoir Basin: Bilen'ke-Vasylivka River Road Crossing
Left: Navigation Bathymetry
Right: Ship Density Heat Map (2021)
The Upper KR Basin is widest (23 km) and most shallow of the all basins with only the right bank dredged shipping lanes deeper than 5 meters.

9/ Kakhovka Reservoir - Middle Basin Roads on 1940s maps: There were two road crossings from Nikopol
a. Nikopol-Vodiane
b. Nikopol-Kamyanka

10/ Kakhovka Reservoir - Middle Basin Roads
Left: Navigation Bathymetry
Right: Ship Density Heat Map (2021)
Dnipro main channel runs nearest Nikopol (right bank). Zaporizhzhia NPP cooling point built in the Konka River channel (left bank).

11/ Kakhovka Reservoir - Middle Basin: 1940s Roads
Planet Imagery
Left: 13 June 2023
Right: 18 June 2023
Significant draining of basin revealing river channel and even old road bed (Nikopol-Kamyanka)

12/ Kakhovka Reservoir - Lower Basin Roads shown on 1940s maps: Havrylivka-Velyka Lepetykha

13/ Kakhovka Reservoir - Lower Basin: Current navigation map shows bathymetry near 1940s road between Havrylivka and Velyka Lepetykha.

14/ Kakhovka Reservoir - Lower Basin: Sentinel 2 imagery shows right bank shoaling and left bank main channel near 1940s road between Havrylivka and Velyka Lepetykha.
https://t.co/BOpeJ9qm8gsentinelshare.page.link/pw77

15/ Kakhovka Reservoir - Lower Basin Roads shown on 1940s map: There were two road crossings shown
a. Kachkarivka to Knyaze-Hryhorivka
b. Kachkarivka to Zavodivka

16/ Kakhovka Reservoir - Lower Basin Roads: Current navigation map shows bathymetry near 1940s roads

17/ Kakhovka Reservoir - Lower Basin: Sentinel 2 imagery shows significant shoaling on left bank and main channel near right bank near 1940s roads. Konka River 100-200 meters wide on left bank.

18/ Summary of total river basin crossing distance and major/minor water crossing distances for 6 roads shown 1940s as well as and distance to vital territory to the south.

19/ Fortifications between 1940s roads and vital territories from @bradyafr map.
https://t.co/jiaqBYb9Ugread.bradyafrick.com/p/russian-fiel…

20/ @Deepstate_UA map of Line of Conflict, 1940s river crossings, and distance to vital territories.
https://t.co/6HmcbPfSAUdeepstatemap.live/en#10/47.1155/…

21/ Review of 1940s maps shows 6 river crossings in the Kakhovka Reservoir basin. The upper basin offers the greatest risk with a 24 km crossing distance, while the left bank bridgehead is still in a dense fortification region, therefore least desirable.

22/ The middle basin road crossings from Nikopol are only 5-8 km distance, but longest distance to vital territories, and possibly too close to Zaporizhzhia NPP to be useful to UAF.

23/ The lower basin road crossings have 7-8 km crossing distances with the main channel closest to the right bank (therefore less difficult to defend during water crossing) and closest to vital territories in the south.

25/ When river bed will dry sufficiently to support military vehicles remains a question. Greatest soil drying will occur in August-September before soil becomes muddy again in the late fall. Dnipro River flow will also be lower in the late summer. /end

.@threadreaderapp unroll

@Shaggnar Another consideration is a good deal of the silt was flushed out, especially in the lower basin, as reservoir water rapidly emptied.

26/ Adding a 7th riverbed road to the Kakhovka Reservoir basin pre-1955 crossings: Beryslav-Kakhovka
I saw the road on the old maps but assumed it was below the Kakhovka dam, actually 5km upstream of the dam. Thanks to @Gergyl @raptorama7 @DefMon3 for pointing out my omission!

27/ Kakhovka Reservoir- Lower Basin
Beryslav-Kakhovka river road shown on 1940s maps
Left: German Military Map
Right: US Army Map

28/ Kakhovka Reservoir - Lower Basin Roads: Current navigation map shows bathymetry near 1940s roads. The Dnipro main channel is close to the right bank with a minor channel on the left bank.

29/ Kakhovka Reservoir - Lower Basin: Sentinel 2 imagery shows 1940s riverbed road between Beryslav and Kakhovka.
https://t.co/4EGUEyaGkjsentinelshare.page.link/vPCT

30/ A potential Kakhovka bridgehead has significantly more fortifications on the left bank than other Kakhovka reservoir basin options. Distance to Perekop and Chonhar is just 70 km and 115 km but roads to these vital territories have numerous fortifications.

31/ Summary: There are 7 riverbed road crossings from the #KakhovkaHPP dam to Zaporizhzhia in the Kakhovka Reservoir basin shown on 1940s maps. Lower basin crossings have shorter riverbed crossing distances and shortest distances to vital territories. /end (seriously this time)

Upper #KakhovkaResevoir, 5-25 June 2023

Middle #KakhovkaReservoir Basin at Nikopol, 5-25 June 2023

Lower #KakhovkaReservoir Basin at Kakhovka, 5-25 June 2023

Lower #KakhovkaReservoir Basin at Havrylivka, 5-25 June 2023

Lower #KakhovkaRservoir Basin at Kachkarivka, 5-25 June 2023