Thread by @althecat

#ExtremeWeather Global outlook thread.

Top line finding the next 16 days shows a significant atmospheric atmospheric wafter vapour / energy increase over the entire Northern Hemisphere indicating conditions for potential extreme weather rainfall events in many places.… https://t.co/NKFYYsmrRNtwitter.com/i/web/status/1…

This is a new chart which shows accumulating low pressure systems over the Western Pacific - which is growing increasingly active.

Japan seems to be primarily in the firing line as you can see top left.

This is also striking. The Tropical Atlantic energy balance shows a significant upward tick over the 10-16 day period covered in these globlal weather model animations. Here the measure is energy transport energy.

The impact of this in Central and North America is pretty spectacular.

Also in Europe

Here is the European rainfall solution over 16 days via the GFS 1 hour model.

And the North American one. The large circulation in the Tropical Atlantic runs up the US East Coast bringing substantial rain - and likely an unstable atmosphere producing super cells etc.

The El-Nino is measured in the Eastern Pacific and relates to seawater temperature anomaly. When the ocean is cold it suppresses convection amd this leads to less water travelling Westaround the globe as convection in the Pacific is such a large source of the tropical belt's… https://t.co/r8CuYIRLzPtwitter.com/i/web/status/1…

Here's a close up of the Eastern end of this cycle - off the Pacific coast of the Central American Isthmus. Like the Atlantic it's showing lots of evidence of an early start and a very busy cyclonic seeding ground off the coast of Mexico, similar to last years, but starting… https://t.co/1u8d7bhFGrtwitter.com/i/web/status/1…

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