Thread by @bctallis

'Security Guarantees' for #Ukraine are a hot topic - but it's a false debate.
NATO membership is the only viable option - but there's no consensus.
So we need an interim solution:
⏩We should extend the #JEF & transform it into a
'Joint European Defence Initiative' (#JEDI)
🧵1/

In this new policy brief for @dgapev
-I show why #NATO membership for #Ukraine is the only way in the medium-term
& analyse the available options for the interim
2/
dgap.org/en/research/pu…

From the Cold War to the present day #NATO has proven essential to the defense of democracies. Powerful capabilities & high-level peer pressure that acts as a form of collective spine-stiffening make it the most credible deterrent against authoritarian aggression in Europe.
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#NATO membership would dramatically reduce the cost of militarily supporting Ukraine to deter #Russia (as #Ukraine would not need to be equipped to do so alone)
- & it would spread that cost between allies.
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Moreover, as @general_ben & #Germany's National Security Strategy point out, the costs of failed deterrence are far higher than those of effective deterrence – for frontline states, but also for their allies and partners.
- we cant afford to fail to deter #Russia again
5/

More fundamentally, democratic states can't allow #Russia’s aggression to pay off (or be seen to).
#NATO membership for #Ukraine would clearly send that signal to Moscow - & Beijing.
Hesitating to include 🇺🇦 does the opposite & seems to give Russia a veto over NATO enlargement
6/

NATO allies must learn from the ill-fated 2008 Bucharest Summit where Ukraine was first offered the prospect but not the path or real political backing to join NATO. This undermined deterrence b/c as @kvolker put it: “Grey zones are green lights for dictators.”
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Yet, there is still not consensus on supporting a clear path to #NATO membership for Ukraine.
And the main obstacle is the US ...

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While Washington's hesitance is ostensibly to avoid escalation or getting into a direct conflict with Russia, this rings false because of NATO’s effective deterrence against Russia.
We crossed all their red lines & there is no retaliation against NATO states. For that reason.
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The suspicion is that Washington’s real concern is the unwillingness of key European states to do more for their own security & their inability to collectively organize this without undermining NATO or distancing themselves from the US. /10

Washington is wary of taking on an big additional defense commitment that would fall unevenly on the US, though Europeans are most directly affected.
This is poor all round & it sadly gives cover to those European states who are dodging responsibility for our security ... but
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More & more allies, importantly including the #UK & #France have come round to the position long advocated by CEE states that #NATO membership for #Ukraine remains the only viable way to deter Russia & strengthen European security.
12/
politico.eu/article/uk-jam…

But without allied consensus - & especially without the US on board, it's not going to happen.
So we need an interim solution that:
1. Protects Ukraine & Deters Russia.
2. Bolsters European security & Europeans contribution to it.
3. Smoothes the path to NATO membership.
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There are 3 Groups of Options on the table

[excluding the nonsense like mutual de-escalation and Lula's peace clubs, etc]

1. The Hedgehog/Porcupine/Israel option ❌

2. Bilateral Security Pacts❌

3. Coalitions of the Willing [especially the JEF+/JEDI]✅

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1. Hedgehog/Porcupine/Israel Option
- arm Ukraine but don't get involved in its defence.
- a timid continuation of current half-hearted approach that gives #Ukraine enough weapons not to lose but not enough firepower to deal a crushing blow to Russia.
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newyorker.com/culture/annals…

1a. Hedgehog/Porcupine Option
-unlikely to actually deter #Russia
-continuation of support after urgency of hot war ends is questionable without binding defence commitments.
-creates dangerous grey zone
-likely to provoke the very aggression & escalation it seeks to avert
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1b. Israel Option
- stronger version of Hedgehog with guaranteed 'Qualitative Military Edge' including offensive capability
- ignores that Israel's neighbours are not nuclear states, like RU.
- Doesn't include THE capability that underpins Israel's security - NUCLEAR WEAPONS
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Ukraine would have every incentive to seek its own Nuclear weapons (with proliferation implications) & would have to focus so much on security that it could risk becoming a garrison state, undermining its reforms, civic & social progress - & EU integration prospects

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As Henry Kissinger argued (in the 1 good moment in that interview), creating a well armed power next door, then telling them they are not welcome is an odd move
- & unlikely to make for a stable Europe.
- better bring them in & plan together.

19/economist.com/kissinger-high…

2. Bilateral Security Pacts
- stronger option, including a mutual defence pact.
- similar to what the US has with Japan & South Korea.

- US won't do it for the same reasons as no to NATO
- Others could, as the UK did for 🇸🇪🇫🇮 between announcing intent & joining NATO, but ...
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thats not comparable b/c of the timeframe or the threat level.
Its also a bad idea for several other reasons:
- puts too much burden on the partner
- leaves them vulnerable to Russian presusre
- and leaves Ukraine vulnerable to their domestic opinion & changing Geopol views
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A great (terrible) example of this is how the Carter Administration cancelled the US-Taiwan security pact as part of their efforts to build better relations with China.
Imagine a future administration in a security pact partner less supportive of 🇺🇦 & cosying up to 🇷🇺 ...
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That leaves
3. Coalitions of the Willing!
- The Kyiv Security Compact from @AndersFoghR & @AndriyYermak is one such idea, with a lot going for it - but envisions the US participating, which it won't for the same reasons it won't support #NATO membership for #Ukraine.
but ... 23/

There's actually a solution waiting to be picked up.
at @GLOBSEC the Chair of the UK Parliament's Defence Committee @Tobias_Ellwood MP, suggested extending the the 🇬🇧-led 'Joint Expeditionary Force' (#JEF) to #Ukraine - & also to #Poland.
- this idea has a lot going for it!
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The JEF is an established and successful format, a NATO Framework Nation initiative, with some serious credibility - & members strongly in support of having Ukraine in NATO.🇬🇧🇱🇹🇱🇻🇪🇪🇫🇮🇳🇴🇩🇰🇮🇸🇳🇱 + non-NATO 🇸🇪(since 2017)
There's a great report on it here👇
https://t.co/0FBzRQhTdLcsis.org/analysis/joint…