Let us not despair but act.

That's my No.1 takeaway from #MSC2025, yesterday’s Paris summit, & today's US-Russia talks in Riyadh. 

Enough of the 'wake-up calls', ‘unity’ & the 'hour of Europe', those Europeans who get it must embrace the 'Nike Strategy' & #Justdoit. 
🧵


This was the conclusion from practically every conversation I had in Munich on issues from

💥Defence Industrial Strategy
💥Security Guarantees for Ukraine
💥Seizing Frozen Russian Assets
💥Winning the Economic War

🧵

Assessing Hegseth’s comments beyond panic & hysteria.
1. On NATO- Fair & clear that this was coming. Not the end of NATO but end of European free riding.

2. On Ukraine - much worse news but Europeans CAN & MUST act for UA & for ourselves 🧵

theguardian.com/us-news/video/… On NATO & European Security
- Hegseth’s comments about not tolerating imbalance & dependence are the logical outcome of Europeans having let NATO become a US protectorate rather than a true alliance through their free or cheap riding.

- US also benefits a lot from NATO but not at any price.

To Avoid Another Munich, Europe Must Act to Secure Ukraine

To counter the fatalism in Western Europe, which is in danger of becoming disastrously self-fulfilling, 100+ politicians, experts, military & intelligence professionals argue that
a coalition of willing Europeans must step up for Ukraine’s victory & our common security, regardless of the outcome of the US Election, because:
   
1️⃣ Russia is not destined to prevail. Russia cannot sustain its war effort at current levels beyond 2025 when it will exhaust key stocks. It is losing heavy cannon barrels and armoured vehicles at a rate far higher than it can replace. 
 
2️⃣ There is no credible plan for European security after any ‘ceasefire’. The Putin regime cannot be trusted to keep a deal. A ceasefire would let Russia reconstitute its forces, putting us at a disadvantage.
 
3️⃣ Failing to win endangers all European allies. A ‘Minsk III’ (or Munich II) agreement would signal weakness and invite coercion upon us.
 
4️⃣ A route to Ukrainian victory still exists. Using new military technology we can quickly leverage Europe’s industrial capacity to build the capabilities to disable Russia’s war machine.
 
5️⃣ Those who want to act, can. A coalition of willing powers could supply Ukraine with what it needs to win and provide Kyiv with real security guarantees. Where they change facts and policy on the ground, others will follow.
 
➡️In this appeal we urge willing European capitals to urgently arm themselves with a real contingency plan for any outcome of the US election by collectively enhancing financial and military support to Ukraine, focused on a clear theory of victory.

The letter in the @FT is available here

ft.com/content/6d4e36…

The full text is here in
🇬🇧 ft.com/content/6d4e36…

& 🇩🇪 democratic-strategy.net/_files/ugd/dcf…

And has been signed by leading politicians, military and intelligence professionals including:

@Deptula_David @edwardstrngr @WarintheFuture @genmhayden @gregbagwell @IlvesToomas @PhillipsPOBrien @EliotACohen @DLidington @calxandr @Pabriks @KonstantinNotz @paulmasonnews @AdamKinzinger @john_sipher @DavidPriess & more 👇
The letter was also signed by leading experts including

Full list & text in 🇬🇧🇩🇪 here 👉democratic-strategy.net/publications

@james_rogers @LarryPfeifferDC @ThreshedThought @StephenGethins @DerkBoswijk @AdamKinzinger @robinwagener @StanKutcher @ratnaomi @DonnaDasko @SlawomirDebski @chantal_kopf @JacobBritta @john_sipher @iainmartin1 @StewartMcDonald @CER_IanBond @GresselGustav @NonaMikhelidze @BalkanDevlen @DavidPriess @JKaarsbo @michaeldweiss

It’s here!
🔥Long awaited new piece on #NeoIdealism is OUT NOW!🔥

➡️ Develops Neo-Idealism as Grand Strategy for the Free World 🌍

I Lay out 8 pillars that we need if we are to build a Neo-Idealist approach in international (& domestic) politics!
👇🧵
macdonaldlaurier.ca/wp-content/upl…






Why do we need a grand strategy?
Because we, the world’s free societies, face multiple tests of our value & prowess - & severe & urgent threats to our security, prosperity & freedom. Threats to our democratic way of life
- but we’ve not yet got our collective act together. 🧵

56bn for Ukraine 🇺🇦
Zero Trust for Germany? 🇩🇪

#Germany is both #Ukraine’s biggest European supporter in absolute financial terms

- AND rightly seen as problem by allies (As well as by many Germans)

Here’s why.🧵

(& no, it’s not just Scholz, the SPD & #Taurus) There's a lot of confusion & conflicting figures flying around, so what support has 🇩🇪 provided to 🇺🇦 in financial terms?

We use🇩🇪Govt figures (because they're unlikely to be underestimates) but pls correct if needed.
We also separate military from other aid
(to 24/02/24).🧵

The fight back has begun.
Everyone has rightly talked about grim mood at #MSC2024
BUT there were major signs that true leaders across Europe have had enough of the gap between words & action
& of key Allie’s failing to stand up for our common interests & for our security. 1/





Danish PM Mette Fredriksen pledged ALL of her country’s artillery to Ukraine - and called out allies who claim they have nothing left to give - saying that they manifestly do. And when it comes to giving Ukraine what it needs to win they should Just Do It.
news.yahoo.com/pm-says-denmar…

#Germany, we have a problem.

It seems
the🚦coalition is turning inward & de-prioritising key issues, including Ukraine

There's a mixture of complacency (about Germany's Zeitenwende) & delusion (about 🇩🇪 ability to ignore geopol & do its own thing)

V. Dangerous.
🧵 BLUF: Letting Scholz focus on uncontroversial topics like UA reconstruction (not victory) puts the cart before the horse, distracts from the need to create (& ensure) a stable security order, a stable peace in Europe.

This puts all Europeans, incl Germans at risk.

We often hear that 'Failure is not an Option' in Ukraine

But we are making failure a real possibility.

That brings huge danger.

For #Ukraine - and for Europe more widely.

We can still turn this around,
but to do so we need to act strongly - and fast.
A🧵 Too much of the West still hasn't understood that Ukraine's victory is a strategic necessity.

We have a severe strategic deficit. We lack
- clear vision
- strategy to achieve it
- a credible, common strategic threat assessment

see e.g. @andrewmichta
politico.eu/article/west-u…

I don’t buy that characterisation of the Cold War & think the problem lies elsewhere.

Legacy ‘crisis management’ & ‘war on terror’ thinking is holding us back.

This lacked victory thinking b/c it lacked an organising principle, clear objective

- & eroded our sense of self

1/

https://twitter.com/minna_alander/status/1718270131044839500

There was no single ‘cold war’ - across either time or space.

But, despite the Sino-Soviet split, Ostpolitik & other muddying aspects, there WAS an organising principle:

Contain & Defeat communism
(Win!)

Substitute authoritarianism for communism & it still works

2/

The #NATOSummit failed to meet the historical moment - its heartbreaking for Ukraine, but makes all Europeans less safe & makes it more difficult to make the world safe for democracy.
There were positive steps which we must now transform into a platform for what we need
Short🧵 Washington & Berlin have chosen to make Ukraine's victory more costly in terms of money but also in terms of Ukrainian lives. It sends a weak deterrence signal & seems to concede (on spurious grounds) that Moscow has a veto on NATO enlargement.

This tweet from @ischinger points to some of the most serious failings of #Germany’s foreign policy -of which he has helped set the tone. They must to be addressed if there is to be a real #Zeitenwende -& if 🇩🇪is to protect its interests & properly contribute to a safe Europe🧵 The view expressed here
1. Ignores views of non-US allies
2. Shirks Responsibility
3. Continues vicious cycle of inadequate European security provision
4. Reactive
5. Miscalculates interests & ignores values.
/1

'Security Guarantees' for #Ukraine are a hot topic - but it's a false debate.
NATO membership is the only viable option - but there's no consensus.
So we need an interim solution:
⏩We should extend the #JEF & transform it into a
'Joint European Defence Initiative' (#JEDI)
🧵1/





In this new policy brief for @dgapev
-I show why #NATO membership for #Ukraine is the only way in the medium-term
& analyse the available options for the interim
2/
dgap.org/en/research/pu…

#Germany’s first National Security Strategy was published today.

A short 🧵 of reflections on what is, overall, a disappointing document (even taking account of lower expectations) - but also has some interesting & positive points to work with.

nationalesicherheitsstrategie.de/en.html
1/ Many have summarised the content - but thats not my purpose here. For a summary - & also a quite different take, see @RikeFranke's thread here

https://twitter.com/RikeFranke/status/1668982920302800896?s=20

But, I want to draw attention to some other issues
2/

How to deal with #Russia
- Short thread based on my talk at #LennartMeriConference 2023. #NeoIdealism

1. Ukraine's war is our war - & must be won.
That means restoring UA's 1991 borders & ensuring UA's ability to defend them - & the people within them. 2. After victory we have to get #Ukraine into #NATO & the #EU as fast as possible.
- As @SwedishPM has said:
This should be merit based but cannot again be an excuse for going soft or going slow on UA's accession.
- we have to institutionally tie our future to UA's.

Is #Germany's #Zeitenwende
a) "a Fundamental Change?"
b) 🇩🇪's emergence as a "Leading Power"?
c) "a mere buzzword"
d) "bullshit"
* its been described as all those things
- but how to judge & why does it matter? A 🧵 1/10
ip-quarterly.com/en/zeitenwende…
📷Michael Lucan CC 3.0 Olaf #Scholz' 'turning point' speech in Feb '22 declared #Russia’s full-scale invasion of #Ukraine a 'watershed moment' (#Zeitenwende") -something happening to #Germany & others- but also set out the Zeitenwende as a task for🇩🇪 to develop new capabilities & a new approach.
2/10

There's been criticism of the detail (esp re #Poland, which has already delivered Leos) - but @JeremyCliffe's main point is right.
▶️I'd actually take it further (it's not about #Germany but about #Ukraine), which is why we need to talk about #Finland🧵

newstatesman.com/quickfire/2023… I've repeatedly praised #Finland's approach to standing up #Russia & have written on its own #Zeitenwende in joining #NATO.
I've also repeatedly praised @MarinSanna as a figurehead of #NeoIdealism - who's been wonderfully clear on how & why #Ukraine must win & RU must lose
/2

What a silly, one-eyed yet quite indicative article.
The author (who I know a little & respect) is right about PiS’ vile tactics & #Poland’s well documented rule of law issues
- BUT totally blind to #Germany’s own faults re Poland, #Russia & #Ukraine
1/4
politico.eu/article/poland… Most glaringly
- how #Germany trampled over #Poland’s concerns on Nordstream

- & how it free-rode on security, enriched & entrenched RU & undermined #Ukraine, helping RU enact the very sphere of influence logic he bemoans from far right allies of Morawiecki (eg Le Pen)
2/4

Ever tried to Global #Britain but ended up accidentally pulling a little #England?
- Turns out you’re not alone.
A🧵on British identity, foreign policy & why we need to properly understand #Brexit to move beyond it.
- based on a new article I have out in @ISQ_Jrnl
1/25 The article, which I'm really happy to have in top IR journal @ISQ_Jrnl, challenges a received wisdom about #Brexit – that it both reflected & reinforced a general, almost tribal polarisation of British society.
2/
academic.oup.com/isq/article-ab…

If the #EU & it’s member states really wanted to do something about #Orban’s #Hungary, they would.

- The mess over ratifying #Sweden & #Finland’s NATO membership is only the latest incident & 🇭🇺‘a continuing presence is a stain on 🇪🇺reputation & effectiveness.
🇭🇺should go. 🧵/1 In case anyone doubts the game playing over 🇫🇮& 🇸🇪’s #NATO membership the country’s foreign minister Peter Szijjarto made it clear earlier this week
- Fidesz now says it will support accession but it has been a farce & again cast doubt on 🇪🇺competence /2

euobserver.com/nordics/156770

This is how it started on 24/02/22.

But it was a day later on 25/02/22, a year ago today, that, thanks to @bbcnickrobinson,
I heard a first signal of hope amid the unfolding horror.

I wondered if, for #Ukraine, it could be different this time ...
🧵1/

https://twitter.com/BBCr4today/status/1629105631155179521

On 25/02/22 as I was pushing my sleeping daughter in her stroller, listening to @BBCr4today, Nick Robinson spoke from the roof of the hotel where he was holed up in #Kyiv.

And, looking over the city, he said something that stopped me in my tracks.
#Ukraine
2/

Paying this national security premium is actually an investment in our future: it gives us the chance to make our democracies what we claim them to be - and thus to reactivate our soft & transformative power.
opencanada.org/is-canada-read…
14/ No longer relying on the cheap shortcuts of (dependencies on) market & fossil fuel on authoritarian regimes should be the spur to transform our own societies to deliver a better future, to revive the hope of progress & share its benefits more fairly.

15/