56bn for Ukraine 🇺🇦
Zero Trust for Germany? 🇩🇪

#Germany is both #Ukraine’s biggest European supporter in absolute financial terms

- AND rightly seen as problem by allies (As well as by many Germans)

Here’s why.🧵

(& no, it’s not just Scholz, the SPD & #Taurus) There's a lot of confusion & conflicting figures flying around, so what support has 🇩🇪 provided to 🇺🇦 in financial terms?

We use🇩🇪Govt figures (because they're unlikely to be underestimates) but pls correct if needed.
We also separate military from other aid
(to 24/02/24).🧵

The fight back has begun.
Everyone has rightly talked about grim mood at #MSC2024
BUT there were major signs that true leaders across Europe have had enough of the gap between words & action
& of key Allie’s failing to stand up for our common interests & for our security. 1/





Danish PM Mette Fredriksen pledged ALL of her country’s artillery to Ukraine - and called out allies who claim they have nothing left to give - saying that they manifestly do. And when it comes to giving Ukraine what it needs to win they should Just Do It.
news.yahoo.com/pm-says-denmar…

#Germany, we have a problem.

It seems
the🚦coalition is turning inward & de-prioritising key issues, including Ukraine

There's a mixture of complacency (about Germany's Zeitenwende) & delusion (about 🇩🇪 ability to ignore geopol & do its own thing)

V. Dangerous.
🧵 BLUF: Letting Scholz focus on uncontroversial topics like UA reconstruction (not victory) puts the cart before the horse, distracts from the need to create (& ensure) a stable security order, a stable peace in Europe.

This puts all Europeans, incl Germans at risk.

We often hear that 'Failure is not an Option' in Ukraine

But we are making failure a real possibility.

That brings huge danger.

For #Ukraine - and for Europe more widely.

We can still turn this around,
but to do so we need to act strongly - and fast.
A🧵 Too much of the West still hasn't understood that Ukraine's victory is a strategic necessity.

We have a severe strategic deficit. We lack
- clear vision
- strategy to achieve it
- a credible, common strategic threat assessment

see e.g. @andrewmichta
politico.eu/article/west-u…

I don’t buy that characterisation of the Cold War & think the problem lies elsewhere.

Legacy ‘crisis management’ & ‘war on terror’ thinking is holding us back.

This lacked victory thinking b/c it lacked an organising principle, clear objective

- & eroded our sense of self

1/

https://twitter.com/minna_alander/status/1718270131044839500

There was no single ‘cold war’ - across either time or space.

But, despite the Sino-Soviet split, Ostpolitik & other muddying aspects, there WAS an organising principle:

Contain & Defeat communism
(Win!)

Substitute authoritarianism for communism & it still works

2/

The #NATOSummit failed to meet the historical moment - its heartbreaking for Ukraine, but makes all Europeans less safe & makes it more difficult to make the world safe for democracy.
There were positive steps which we must now transform into a platform for what we need
Short🧵 Washington & Berlin have chosen to make Ukraine's victory more costly in terms of money but also in terms of Ukrainian lives. It sends a weak deterrence signal & seems to concede (on spurious grounds) that Moscow has a veto on NATO enlargement.

This tweet from @ischinger points to some of the most serious failings of #Germany’s foreign policy -of which he has helped set the tone. They must to be addressed if there is to be a real #Zeitenwende -& if 🇩🇪is to protect its interests & properly contribute to a safe Europe🧵 The view expressed here
1. Ignores views of non-US allies
2. Shirks Responsibility
3. Continues vicious cycle of inadequate European security provision
4. Reactive
5. Miscalculates interests & ignores values.
/1

'Security Guarantees' for #Ukraine are a hot topic - but it's a false debate.
NATO membership is the only viable option - but there's no consensus.
So we need an interim solution:
⏩We should extend the #JEF & transform it into a
'Joint European Defence Initiative' (#JEDI)
🧵1/





In this new policy brief for @dgapev
-I show why #NATO membership for #Ukraine is the only way in the medium-term
& analyse the available options for the interim
2/
dgap.org/en/research/pu…

#Germany’s first National Security Strategy was published today.

A short 🧵 of reflections on what is, overall, a disappointing document (even taking account of lower expectations) - but also has some interesting & positive points to work with.

nationalesicherheitsstrategie.de/en.html
1/ Many have summarised the content - but thats not my purpose here. For a summary - & also a quite different take, see @RikeFranke's thread here

https://twitter.com/RikeFranke/status/1668982920302800896?s=20

But, I want to draw attention to some other issues
2/

How to deal with #Russia
- Short thread based on my talk at #LennartMeriConference 2023. #NeoIdealism

1. Ukraine's war is our war - & must be won.
That means restoring UA's 1991 borders & ensuring UA's ability to defend them - & the people within them. 2. After victory we have to get #Ukraine into #NATO & the #EU as fast as possible.
- As @SwedishPM has said:
This should be merit based but cannot again be an excuse for going soft or going slow on UA's accession.
- we have to institutionally tie our future to UA's.

Is #Germany's #Zeitenwende
a) "a Fundamental Change?"
b) 🇩🇪's emergence as a "Leading Power"?
c) "a mere buzzword"
d) "bullshit"
* its been described as all those things
- but how to judge & why does it matter? A 🧵 1/10
ip-quarterly.com/en/zeitenwende…
📷Michael Lucan CC 3.0 Olaf #Scholz' 'turning point' speech in Feb '22 declared #Russia’s full-scale invasion of #Ukraine a 'watershed moment' (#Zeitenwende") -something happening to #Germany & others- but also set out the Zeitenwende as a task for🇩🇪 to develop new capabilities & a new approach.
2/10

There's been criticism of the detail (esp re #Poland, which has already delivered Leos) - but @JeremyCliffe's main point is right.
▶️I'd actually take it further (it's not about #Germany but about #Ukraine), which is why we need to talk about #Finland🧵

newstatesman.com/quickfire/2023… I've repeatedly praised #Finland's approach to standing up #Russia & have written on its own #Zeitenwende in joining #NATO.
I've also repeatedly praised @MarinSanna as a figurehead of #NeoIdealism - who's been wonderfully clear on how & why #Ukraine must win & RU must lose
/2

What a silly, one-eyed yet quite indicative article.
The author (who I know a little & respect) is right about PiS’ vile tactics & #Poland’s well documented rule of law issues
- BUT totally blind to #Germany’s own faults re Poland, #Russia & #Ukraine
1/4
politico.eu/article/poland… Most glaringly
- how #Germany trampled over #Poland’s concerns on Nordstream

- & how it free-rode on security, enriched & entrenched RU & undermined #Ukraine, helping RU enact the very sphere of influence logic he bemoans from far right allies of Morawiecki (eg Le Pen)
2/4

Ever tried to Global #Britain but ended up accidentally pulling a little #England?
- Turns out you’re not alone.
A🧵on British identity, foreign policy & why we need to properly understand #Brexit to move beyond it.
- based on a new article I have out in @ISQ_Jrnl
1/25 The article, which I'm really happy to have in top IR journal @ISQ_Jrnl, challenges a received wisdom about #Brexit – that it both reflected & reinforced a general, almost tribal polarisation of British society.
2/
academic.oup.com/isq/article-ab…

If the #EU & it’s member states really wanted to do something about #Orban’s #Hungary, they would.

- The mess over ratifying #Sweden & #Finland’s NATO membership is only the latest incident & 🇭🇺‘a continuing presence is a stain on 🇪🇺reputation & effectiveness.
🇭🇺should go. 🧵/1 In case anyone doubts the game playing over 🇫🇮& 🇸🇪’s #NATO membership the country’s foreign minister Peter Szijjarto made it clear earlier this week
- Fidesz now says it will support accession but it has been a farce & again cast doubt on 🇪🇺competence /2

euobserver.com/nordics/156770

This is how it started on 24/02/22.

But it was a day later on 25/02/22, a year ago today, that, thanks to @bbcnickrobinson,
I heard a first signal of hope amid the unfolding horror.

I wondered if, for #Ukraine, it could be different this time ...
🧵1/

https://twitter.com/BBCr4today/status/1629105631155179521

On 25/02/22 as I was pushing my sleeping daughter in her stroller, listening to @BBCr4today, Nick Robinson spoke from the roof of the hotel where he was holed up in #Kyiv.

And, looking over the city, he said something that stopped me in my tracks.
#Ukraine
2/

Paying this national security premium is actually an investment in our future: it gives us the chance to make our democracies what we claim them to be - and thus to reactivate our soft & transformative power.
opencanada.org/is-canada-read…
14/ No longer relying on the cheap shortcuts of (dependencies on) market & fossil fuel on authoritarian regimes should be the spur to transform our own societies to deliver a better future, to revive the hope of progress & share its benefits more fairly.

15/

A long, thoughtful article by @jnpowell1 who knows a lot about negotiations. it contains many insightful & useful observations.
But I disagree with its main thrust & key choices he outlines - A 🧵 on why
#Ukraine #Russia #NeoIdealism
1/
prospectmagazine.co.uk/magazine/ukrai… My main objection is to this framing of the ‘issues between #Ukraine & #Russia’ as somehow not being clear & clearly 🇷🇺’s fault & 🇷🇺’s problem.🇷🇺 needs to get out of 🇺🇦 & stop menacing it’s neighbours.

There can be no bothsidesing - it is wrong & sets terrible precedent.
2/

🔥 🧵s on #NeoIdealism 🧵 🔥

2. Why is 'Neo-Idealism' called 'Neo-Idealism'?

- I outlined this new approach to #IR & Grand Strategy in a previous thread (see linked tweet).
- Now I dig deeper into the name & concept

1/25

https://twitter.com/bctallis/status/1612105940441915395?s=20&t=tyvrk6KrtlUcfFRtjrZ77Q

I first introduced the idea of #NeoIdealism in a piece for @RUSI_org in April '22 but Its fullest elaboration so far is in my book - 'To #Ukraine With Love'
- published last month & available now on kindle & paperback😎
amazon.com/Ukraine-Love-E…

So why call it Neo-Idealism?

2/25

With the great news that #Poland will supply a company of #Leopard2 Main Battle Tanks & the #UK set to provide #Challenger2 #MBTs, the spotlight is now trained firmly on Berlin. Will #Germany join the coalition to give #Ukraine the tanks -#Kampfpanzer!- it needs?🧵1/ Happily, that looks increasingly likely.
SPD Chancellor #Scholz' coalition partners the Greens & FDP are insisting that #Germany take part & rumours of a no-confidence vote ultimatum are swirling.
@ABaerbock's visit to Kharkiv with @DmytroKuleba & @Makeiev was no coincidence 2/

While researching for an analytical article (see tweet 4) on #Czechia's presidential elections (1st round this week), I conducted an interview with a leading candidate @danusenerudova to find out more about her positions.
Read the full interview here
1/5
expats.cz/czech-news/art… @danusenerudova is up against Petr Pavel @general_pavel & oligarch & former PM @AndrejBabis
- While Pavel pledges to restore order, Nerudova has a vision of change.

Either would be far, far better than #Babis who could undermine🇨🇿's intl standing & support for #Ukraine.

2/5