Ukraine-NATO vicious circle:
1) NATO is not inviting Ukraine to join because the war goes on and Ukraine is not winning.
2) The war is prolonged and Ukraine is not winning because it gets limited military aid from NATO countries.
1/
3) Ukraine gets limited military aid because
a) the West is afraid of pushing Russia to the corner, i.e. afraid of Russia’s defeat
b) the West has limited stocks
2/
4a) the West is afraid of Russia’s defeat because Russia thinks Ukraine belongs to its sphere of influence and will get mad if it loses.
5a) Russia thinks that Ukraine belongs to its sphere of influence because NATO is not inviting Ukraine to join.
-- back to 1) or
3/
4b) the West has limited stocks because it is not producing enough.
5b) Western defence industry is not producing enough because Western leaders hope the war will be over soon.
But the war is prolonged because Ukraine gets limited military aid...
4/
And all over again.
It is possible to break this vicious circle but NATO lacked the courage and determination to do so in Vilnius. Only half-steps that don't bring the necessary strategic clarity.
END
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