Thread by @ianellisjones

China is preparing for war.

Everyone should watch @Jkylebass' presentation at the @HudsonInstitute, where he connects the dots—between the military, policy, infrastructure, & markets—that point in one direction:

#China is mobilizing for war with 🇺🇸

Key highlights & takeaways👇

Kyle's presentation includes 3 sections:

1. Military force readiness & preparation
2. Changes to the legal system & infrastructure
3. Financial market movements & wartime planning

"This topic is central & vital to the national security of our nation & what we're facing today."

"There are three simulations that have to take place before Xi & the CMC will authorize a strike on Taiwan."

- Operation Joint Fire-Strike (August 2022)
- Operation Joint Sword (April 2023)
- Amphibious Assault (TBD)

👀 2 of the 3 invasion simulations occurred in the past year.

"The first was a 10-day exercise after Pelosi's visit to Taiwan. The Chinese launched 11 ballistic missiles to simulate the neutralization of Taiwan's air defense systems."

China ominously changed legal policy to allow troops & "administrators" to be sent to Taiwan if conquered.

The second exercise "stressed speed & agility," & was designed with 2 phases of attack:

- Immediate deployment of forces
- Rapid seizure of all domains to gain control of air, sea, & information to "gain an extremely advantageous position at the outset."

Xi learned from Putin.

"What China has learned from Putin's mistakes in Ukraine is #1 Xi knows that he can't telegraph the move. Putin did a lot of things to telegraph when his invasion was happening. We don't believe Xi will do that. The 2nd is battlefield control & domains for control are vital."

The third & final readiness exercise will simulate an amphibious assault.

Naval experts believe there are 3 months when an invasion is possible: April, May, & August.

Once an amphibious simulation has been achieved, Xi will be ready at any time to give the go-no-go signal.

Kyle presents detailed timelines showing Chinese mainland preparations for war, including fundamental changes to:

- The legal system & policy
- Physical structures
- Power systems

Beijing can now nationalize foreign companies, seize corporate assets, & detain expat employees.

China is quietly building infrastructure to support cross-strait military operations:

- Built 18 new air raid shelters directly across from Taiwan
- Standing up the world's largest combat hospital nearby
- Running emergency drills to handle massive power outages

I wonder why 🤔

Kyle closely follows what Xi says (that the press often misses) & "the methodical thought process of the CCP."

"What would change the Biden admin's tact to want us to—or force us to—instill crippling sanctions? In my view, it would only be a militaristic move on Taiwan."

Xi's rhetoric is "becoming more bellicose. Every speech he's given since 2017, he tells you what he's going to do. And it's just getting worse and worse and worse."

"In all three speeches, Xi told the people of China to prepare for war."

"The 3rd bucket is my primary expertise: What would China be doing to insulate themselves from severe financial sanctions?"

- Financial markets
- Changes in data policies
- International bond defaults
- Corporate raids of U.S. businesses
- Wartime planning for natural resources

"If Xi were planning for war, you'd expect him to take what assets the sovereign has in direct accounts with the U. S. & start whittling them down or trying to sanction proof those."

"We will be able to execute much more crippling sanctions in the event China invades Taiwan."

"Access to all data was just severed. We all know their economy is really struggling right now. The last thing Xi wants is the Western press to keep writing about how much trouble their economy is in.

So you know what? They just cut the data feed."

"If you were China & you were about to prepare for war... you would just say, you know what, I'm not going to pay those dollars back.

65% of the dollar-based bonds of all the property developers in China are in default offshore."

Onshore, it's a bit different: 21% default.

"The Chinese raided these firms, took all of the computers, & detained employees. If you were trying to develop or continue a system that attracts dollars & attracts corporate interests, this is something you would never do. They are scaring the lights out of U. S. companies."

"It sure looks to me that they are trying to secure all of their energy commitments."

Chinese local governments permitted 100+ large coal-fired power plants—the most since 2015 & 4x over 2021. The combined capacity of coal was 6x as large as all the rest of the world combined.

"In May of 2023, China's coal imports hit 360 to 380 million tons.  That compares with 290 million tons the year before & an all time record in 2013 of 327 million tons. They are going back to the dirtiest, cheapest potential fuel."

"China is 20% of the world's population, & they're hoarding almost 70% of the world's grain today.

Why would you need to have a wheat stockpile that lasts a year & a half in China? Maybe you're holding them for something even larger—that's an even larger problem."

"The number of Chinese ICBM launchers reported by the Pentagon went from 100 missile silos & launchers in 2020 to 450 by October of last year. They had 100 in their entire country in 2020. They have taken that number & increased it by 350% in 18 months. Why would they do that?"

"If you listen to Xi, & you read what he says, he's telling you where he's going, he's telling you what he's doing. And he's making every preparation that I would make if I were running China & I knew I was going to invade Taiwan."

"Do I know that he's going to do it? I don't. But I actually take him at his word. I think it's highly likely that he invades Taiwan.

Looking at all of the writing on what I call the Great Wall, it sure looks like it's headed all in one direction."

Full speech @HudsonInstitute:

@HudsonInstitute Chinese military exercises currently underway look a lot like the amphibious simulation Kyle mentions above (but still too early to tell):

@HudsonInstitute Update from @Jkylebass:

“April, May, & August provide the best tidal & weather windows to achieve a full invasion. In a record-breaking weekend of Chinese ships sailing at Taiwan 🇹🇼, Xi’s ratchet turns only one way….tighter & tighter until the invasion happens.” #August #China